Donald Trump has said he wants the US military out of Syria. That would be a fatal misstep, writes Kersten Knipp. The US president would be handing the region over to players that would create even greater chaos.
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Whatever you may say about US President Donald Trump, he knows how to leave observers guessing. His latest foreign policy rumination was to pull American troops out of Syria.
Hundreds have been killed in one of the Syrian regime's most intense bombing campaigns since the war began in 2011. DW looks at the devastation inflicted on one of the last rebel-held towns.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/AP/Syrian Civil Defense White Helmets
Enclave under siege
More than 1,500 people have been killed since Syrian government troops backed by Russia launched a ferocious attack on eastern Ghouta on February 18. Airstrikes have reduced much of the area near Damascus to ruins. According to the UN, there were an estimated 400,000 people trapped inside the besieged enclave without access to food and water when the offensive began.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/AP/Syrian Civil Defense White Helmets
'Hell on earth'
The town of Douma, with its 200,000 residents, is now the only remaining Ghouta pocket still under rebel control. The full recapture of eastern Ghouta would mark a significant victory for Syrian President Bashar Assad. Referring to the month-long assault on the enclave, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres demanded "this hell on earth" be stopped immediately.
Image: Reuters/B. Khabieh
Reports of chemical attack
According to activists and doctors in the region, several people have suffered symptoms consistent with those triggered by a chlorine gas attack and had to be treated in hospital. French President Emmanuel Macron has warned the Syrian regime that the use of chemical weapons will result in French retaliation, but the Syrian government claims it has never used this kind of munition.
Image: Reuters/B. Khabieh
300,000 killed
A man and child look at the remains of a missile in Douma, the largest in eastern Ghouta. More than 300,000 people have been killed since the conflict began in 2011, when the government cracked down on protesters who were calling for the release of political prisoners and for President Assad to step down.
Image: Reuters/B. Khabieh
'Rapid spread of malnutrition'
Activists say people in Douma have little food or water. Marten Mylius, the emergency relief coordinator for CARE in the Middle East, told DW that "after the tunnels were destroyed and the crossings closed, the price of basic foods skyrocketed. One kilo of rice now costs $4.50 (€3.66). A lot of people cannot afford that anymore. In other words, we are witnessing a rapid spread of malnutrition."
Image: Reuters/B. Khabieh
At the mercy of the regime
Aid access to eastern Ghouta is difficult because there is no direct route from neighboring countries. "In Idlib, for example...you can get in directly from the Turkish border. You can wait with supplies at the border and then bring in the convoy. It is much more difficult in eastern Ghouta," Mylius told DW.
Image: Reuters/B. Khabieh
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Meaningless policy
It would not be wrong to chalk up the president's statements on the Syrian situation to mere spontaneity, which ultimately does not lead to actual troop withdrawal. If that were the case, it would be an admission that the United States' policy on Syria was lazily formulated.
But above all else, it would render US policy for the region broadly meaningless, much to the region's detriment and unlike in 2003, when the US invaded Iraq on the basis of blatant lies, wreaking havoc on Iraq and beyond.
Sure, the US never had particularly good relations with the Bashar al-Assad regime. It would have gladly seen the end to both father and son given both Assads' closeness to America's major regional foe, Iran, and their hostility toward America's major regional ally, Israel.
The US has been trying to get rid of the younger Assad, the butcherer of his people, for seven years, but to no avail. Should the US have more strongly intervened? Should it have stayed out all together, much as what of course should have been the case with other relevant actors, such as Russia, Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia? There is no way to know; the insurgency could have taken too many paths depending on the circumstances.
Who's fighting in the Syria conflict?
Syria's civil war erupted out of the Arab Spring protests that swept much of the Middle East and North Africa in 2011. The conflict has since drawn in multiple warring factions from around the world.
Image: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images
War with no end
Syria has been engulfed in a devastating civil war since 2011 after Syrian President Bashar Assad lost control over large parts of the country to multiple revolutionary groups. The conflict has since drawn in foreign powers and brought misery and death to Syrians.
Image: picture alliance/abaca/A. Al-Bushy
The dictator
Syria's army, officially known as the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), is loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and is fighting to restore the president's rule over the entire country. The SAA has been fighting alongside a number of pro-Assad militias such as the National Defense Force and has cooperated with military advisors from Russia and Iran, which back Assad.
Turkey, which is also part of the US-led coalition against IS, has actively supported rebels opposed to Assad. It has a tense relationship with its American allies over US cooperation with Kurdish fighters, who Ankara says are linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) fighting in Turkey. Turkey has launched multiple military offensives targeting Kurdish militias.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/L. Pitarakis
The eastern guardian
The Kremlin has proven to be a powerful friend to Assad. Russian air power and ground troops officially joined the fight in September 2015 after years of supplying the Syrian army. Moscow has come under fire from the international community for the high number of civilian casualties during its airstrikes. However, Russia's intervention turned the tide in war in favor of Assad.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/Tass/M. Metzel
The western allies
A US-led coalition of more than 50 countries, including Germany, began targeting IS and other terrorist targets with airstrikes in late 2014. The anti-IS coalition has dealt major setbacks to the militant group. The US has more than a thousand special forces in the country backing the Syrian Democratic Forces.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo/A.Brandon
The rebels
The Free Syrian Army grew out of protests against the Assad regime that eventually turned violent. Along with other non-jihadist rebel groups, it seeks the ouster of President Assad and democratic elections. After suffering a number of defeats, many of its members defected to hardline militant groups. It garnered some support from the US and Turkey, but its strength has been greatly diminished.
Image: Reuters
The resistance
Fighting between Syrian Kurds and Islamists has become its own conflict. The US-led coalition against the "Islamic State" has backed the Syrian Democratic Forces, an alliance of Kurdish and Arab militias. The Kurdish YPG militia is the main component of the SDF. The Kurds have had a tacit understanding with Assad.
Image: Getty Images/A. Sik
The new jihadists
"Islamic State" (IS) took advantage of regional chaos to capture vast swathes of territory in Iraq and Syria in 2014. Seeking to establish its own "caliphate," IS has become infamous for its fundamentalist brand of Islam and its mass atrocities. IS is on the brink of defeat after the US and Russia led separate military campaigns against the militant group.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo
The old jihadists
IS is not the only terrorist group that has ravaged Syria. A number of jihadist militant groups are fighting in the conflict, warring against various rebel factions and the Assad regime. One of the main jihadist factions is Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, which controls most of Idlib province and has ties with al-Qaeda.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/Nusra Front on Twitter
The Persian shadow
Iran has supported Syria, its only Arab ally, for decades. Eager to maintain its ally, Tehran has provided Damascus with strategic assistance, military training and ground troops when the conflict emerged in 2011. The Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite militant group Hezbollah also supports the Assad regime, fighting alongside Iranian forces and paramilitary groups in the country.
Image: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images
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Iran's win
What can be said is that a US pullback at this time would seal the fate of not only Syria, but the whole region, for decades to come. In all likelihood, it would lead to Russia's dominance, however discreet. Less discreet would be Iran's dominance over large swaths of Syria, through Lebanon to the border with Israel. The "Shiite Crescent" would become a stark reality.
The hardline domestic agenda of Tehran's mullahs along with their involvement in Syria demonstrate just how ruthlessly intent they are to see their regional interests carried out. Those interests are economic, but more so in the interest of propaganda, in particular against Israel, at a time when Israel can silence protests in Gaza with deadly force.
A bleak scenario
The consequences of US withdrawal would be a triumphant Iran, which could push the region to the brink of wider war. Trump's announcement was correct in admitting that the US achieved little else in Syria than successfully combating the so-called Islamic State. However, if the US were to withdraw, all signs point to an even bleaker outcome.