Serbs appear to have chosen stability in the parliamentary election, with the president's party winning around 61% of the vote. All opposition has apparently been vanquished, says Norbert Mappes-Niediek.
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At a time when the rest of the world seems to have gone crazy, calm and contentment prevail in — of all places — the heart of the Balkans.
For decades, the theory was that countries in this oft troubled region would only find safer waters if they steered steadfastly toward Europe, democracy and the rule of law. This, apparently, was all wrong.
Serbia appears to have found itself at last thanks to authoritarian President Aleksandar Vucic. Instead of bobbing along in the wake of the rolling tanker that is the European Union, the president is guiding his ship of state with a firm hand amid the perils posed by the turbulent sea of world events. And he has even shown everyone how to arrive safely on new shores: Vucic intends to travel to the White House as early as Saturday to celebrate a "reconciliation" with Kosovo, or at least "start a new chapter." Security and order can't be guaranteed by Europe or Chancellor Angela Merkel; that's now the job of Vucic and — hard to believe — US President Donald Trump.
Yes, it's hard to believe — and we'd be wise not to.
SNS as an apparatus of power
Even interpreting the fabulous election result as a vote of confidence in the president is wrong. His Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) does not operate in a pluralistic system where various parties try to win over voters with ideas and arguments. It's not one party among others, but the sole real party: an apparatus of power in the same way the Communist Party once was.
Individuals looking for a job, executives aiming to drum up business, local politicians who need tax money for their constituencies — they all have to make an arrangement with this omnipresent force.
The SNS has around 730,000 members, making it Europe's biggest political party — outright, not in relative terms — even though the country has a population slightly larger than that of Madrid. Anyone who owes their job or position to the party — and that's the case with almost everyone employed in Serbia — is well-advised to vote for the SNS. If it loses power, their jobs will also disappear.
It's a closed system, and during election campaigns it becomes even more hermetic. Activists call up all members and sympathizers who owe something to the party and ask them, seemingly innocuously, how they will vote. Who wouldn't express their devotion under such circumstances?
NATO intervention against Serbia — a look back
The 1999 NATO bombardment of Serbia ended that country's violence against Kosovo Albanians. Still, more than 20 years later, the war, which was conducted without UN backing, remains controversial.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Traces of war on the Kosovo field
The Kosovo conflict intensified at the end of the 1990s. Ten thousand people were displaced. When all efforts to bring peace to the region failed, NATO started air strikes on Serbian military bases and strategic targets in Serbia on March 24, 1999. After 11 weeks, Serb leader Slobodan Milosevic finally backed down.
Image: Eric Feferberg/AFP/GettyImages
Non-violent resistance fails
Protests against Belgrade's attempts to undermine the rights of the Albanian majority in Kosovo began in the mid-1980s. The 1990s saw a massive increase in Serbian repression. Ibrahim Rugova (l.), who took the reins of Kosovo's political movement in 1989, called for non-violent resistance and sought to convince Slobodan Milosevic (r.) to change course — to no avail.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Armed guerrilla war
An armed resistance formed in Kosovo, in which the self-proclaimed Kosovo Liberation Army (UCK) began a brutal guerrilla war. The UCK undertook violent attacks on Serbia as well as against Albanians it considered to be collaborators. Serbia retaliated by torching houses and looting businesses. Hundreds of thousands of people fled.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Systematic expulsion
The war grew increasingly brutal and Serbian forces stepped up attacks on civilians in an attempt to destroy the UCK and its supporters. Scores of people fled into the forests. Thousands of Kosovo Albanians were loaded onto trains and trucks to be transported to the border, where they were thrown out without passports or other personal documents that could prove they were from Kosovo.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Last attempt to negotiate
In February 1999, the USA, France, the United Kingdom, Russia and Germany convened a meeting of warring parties in Rambouillet, France, in an attempt to establish autonomy for Kosovo. Kosovan representatives accepted the proposal, yet Serbia was unwilling to compromise. The negotiations collapsed.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
'Humanitarian intervention'
On March 24, 1999, NATO began bombing military and strategic targets in Serbia and Kosovo in an attempt to end violence against the Albanians. Germany also participated in the bombing. "Operation Allied Force" became the first war in NATO's 50-year history — one conducted without the backing of the UN Security Council. Russia harshly criticized the intervention.
Image: U.S. Navy/Getty Images
Crippled infrastructure
Beyond military targets, NATO also bombed supply lines, train tracks and bridges. Over the course of 79 days and nights, allied forces flew more than 37,000 sorties. Some 20,000 missiles and bombs rained down on Serbia. Many civilians were killed: "collateral damage," in the words of NATO.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Toxic cloud over Pancevo
Industrial sites were also targeted. In Pancevo, near Belgrade, NATO bombs hit a chemical and fertilizer factory. Massive amounts of toxic substances were released into rivers, the ground and the skies — resulting in grave health risks for the nearby civilian population. Moreover, Serbia accused NATO of deploying uranium-enriched munitions as well as cluster and fragment bombs.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Targeting the propaganda machine
State television offices in Belgrade were attacked in an attempt to deprive Slobodan Milosevic of his most important propaganda tool. Although the Serbian government was warned of an impending attack in time, Belgrade withheld that information. Sixteen people were killed when the site was bombed.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Misguided bombs
NATO bombs in Kosovo inadvertently hit a group of Albanian refugees, killing an estimated 80 people. NATO also claimed that the accidental bombardment of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade was another case of "collateral damage." Four people were killed in the misguided attack, leading to a diplomatic crisis between Beijing and Washington.
Image: Joel Robine/AFP/GettyImages
The ghastly toll of war
In early June, Belgrade signaled that Slobodan Milosevic might be prepared to surrender, prompting NATO to end its campaign on June 19. The final toll of the war: thousands of dead and 860,000 refugees. Serbia's economy and large swaths of its infrastructure were destroyed. Kosovo was put under UN administration.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
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The party has built up its power with military precision by providing small subsidies and donations for local radio stations, doing favors for local mayors and handing out generous contracts. Its power grew unnoticed like a rising flood, and before the many rival political forces knew what was happening they had gone under.
It's been less than a decade since Vucic, a former protege of late ex-dictator Slobodan Milosevic, came to power, at first nominally as deputy prime minister. But today he is a towering presence in the country — physically as well, at almost 2 meters (6.5 feet) tall. The Socialists, the second-strongest party at around 11%, are mere also-rans, like the bloc parties in the former East Germany or the Socialist Alliance of Working People in Yugoslavia.
Clever maneuvering
The system is stable — as stable as the communist system that came before it. But it can only function when there is something to hand out and distribute. Thanks to clever tactics, that's still the case: Up until the coronavirus pandemic, EU subsidies and Chinese investments made Serbia, together with Romania, the country with the highest growth rate in the region. And it's predicted that the post-pandemic slump will be less drastic here than elsewhere. Investors like the country: The all-powerful party makes it a "one-stop shop:" licenses aren't a problem, and they're met with little to no resistance.
Serbia imposed stricter measures to combat COVID-19 than any other country in Europe. There was a curfew from 5 p.m. to 5 a.m. for people under 65, and a total lockdown for those 65 and over, with draconian penalties for violations. But the virus, unlike people, cannot be intimidated by an authoritarian state, and it thrives where social conditions are dire.
After initial successes, the number of infections is increasing once again, particularly in student dormitories where residents live in much the same cramped conditions as the workers in some German slaughterhouses. But until election day, the topic of the coronavirus stayed very much in the background. The election date, it seems, was perfectly chosen.
Masters in their own houses
This situation has its similarities with the new regional stability sought by Vucic. Now that no one is left to contradict him — even the Orthodox Church is kept on a short leash — the president is at last free to solve the troublesome issue of Kosovo in his own way.
For two years, Vucic and his Kosovar alter ego Hashim Thaci have been battling over an exchange of territories between Serbia and Kosovo. There's been no talk of real reconciliation, of coming to terms with the past, of a general decline in tensions. Quite the opposite: With their preferred solution, both leaders would become masters in their own houses and would no longer need to consider the rights of pesky minorities. The fact that Trump is playing the peacemaker here fits perfectly: replacing international rules with bilateral "deals" between strongmen is the US president's way of doing politics. And if the maneuver also serves to upset the Europeans, so much the better.
Sunday's election result was fantastic for Vucic. But in Europe, stability can be a tricky thing. As the Russian-American author Alexei Yurtchak once wrote, "Everything was forever, until it was no more."
Refugees in Serbia show resilience
British photographer Edward Crawford has been mapping the situation in refugee camps in Serbia for several months now. Jan Tomes talked to him about his images and impressions.
Image: Edward Crawford
Rays of hope
Light floods into the refugee squat "The Barracks" in Belgrade, and the toxic smoke from burning rubbish crawls in, too. Before the site was cleared last month, the semi-collapsed structures provided shelter to 1,200 refugees. "When I was covering the crisis there, I spoke to hundreds of people. All the migrants had the same goal, however: to find a new, better life in Europe," Crawford told DW.
Image: Edward Crawford
One hot meal
The Barracks were home to Afghans and Pakistanis who decided to flee poverty and terrorism in their countries. "When the western forces pulled out of Afghanistan, the Taliban came out of hiding and began to take reprisals on those deemed 'enemy collaborators' - the members of the Afghan National Army or anyone seen as having helped the West," Crawford explained.
Image: Edward Crawford
Seeking solace
Upon entering Europe earlier this year, the refugees had to cope with another problem: the cold winter and spring weather. The grey blankets handed over to these migrants by the UNHCR thus became essential for survival. One such grey blanket made of acrylic fibers or polyester can help people withstand temperatures as low as 0°C and shield them from the cold wind.
Image: Edward Crawford
The value of life
"In the Barracks, you could see thousands of blankets everywhere. The people slept under piles of them, others used them as additional coats to stave off the cold," Crawford said, adding that he had not met a refugee in Serbia who did not use one. To this man, the blanket was indispensable as it accounted for his only possession, apart from the clothes he was wearing.
Image: Edward Crawford
Cat's lick and a promise
Shaped into tents, curtains, and even torn apart and worn as socks - the blankets became not just a symbol of the refugee crisis, without which thousands would have died over the winter, but also an omnipresent item of migrants’ everyday life. Here Crawford captured a common scene: One man heats and pours the water, one passes the soap, and another stands by with the blanket to dry him off.
Image: Edward Crawford
A blanket left behind
"Usually, the blanket follows people wherever they go in Serbia, but sometimes they leave them behind so as not to slow them down. The owner had left the blanket on the train tracks as he jumped on the train the previous night," said Crawford. According to Serbian authorities, several hundred of the camp inhabitants have been unaccounted for since May.
Image: Edward Crawford
"Hi Mum, I'm ok"
The situation is alarming, considering that the official numbers say that around 40 percent of the refugee camp population were children and teenagers. "This was a young man calling his mother. For me, it brought together the family aspect of the refugee crisis: All those men in the refugee camps are someone’s son, brother, or father," said Crawford.
Image: Edward Crawford
Passing the time
Despite overcrowding and poor sanitary conditions, Crawford said the refugee camps in Serbia were basic but adequate compared to others in the Balkans: "I visited several of them during my time in Serbia and found them to be well-managed, given the situation." He also mentioned that the Serbian Commissariat of Refugees tried to always have translators, doctors, and other trained staff present.
Image: Edward Crawford
Ignored by the rest of the world
Although he views the situation as stable for now, Crawford criticized the EU’s attitude toward the crisis: "Serbia should receive a lot more funding to contain the situation and construct camps to house asylum seekers in humane conditions. With Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary refusing to accept refugee quotas, the idea of a European-wide refugee resettlement policy is in tatters."
Image: Edward Crawford
A desperate appeal
Crawford called for a speedier asylum application process to make it easier to enter the EU legally. But what do the refugees need to improve the situation? "One answer stands out: 'People in Europe complain about us and our behavior. Why don’t they give us teaching while we are here now? Tell us what is acceptable and what is not, tell us the consequences of our actions if we break the law!'"