The SPD hasn't showered its new leader with premature praise. But Andrea Nahles shouldn't take it personally. Her poor election result is just an indication of how wary the party is, says DW's Sabine Kinkartz.
The poor result is not, of course, because Andrea Nahles is a woman. Nor is it aimed at the 47-year-old personally. Rather, it is an expression of the deep rift that runs right through the party. The Social Democrats are deeply divided, and at odds over what path the party needs to take in order to renew itself following its worst-ever postwar result of 20.5 percent in September's federal election. One camp believes it can only be saved by a radical political swing to the left. Back to the party of the workers and the little people. More state, more social welfare. Scrap Hartz IV, the basic provision for the unemployed!
DW's Sabine Kinkartz argues Nahles has to prove she can reinvent the party after its dismal 2017 election result
A more cautious approach
The other side of the party also wants to see a renewal of the SPD — but one that's not as radical, not as left-wing, not as clearly opposed to the unpopular government coalition with the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU). This is the course Andrea Nahles favors. She wants to keep the coalition going. She believes the SPD should be a reliable partner in government, but with its own unmistakable political signature. Govern and renew. It's certainly a balancing act — one that critics say is bound to fail.
These critics also don't believe that Andrea Nahles really wants — or is able — to renew the party. She's been a member of the SPD for 30 years, and it feels as if she's been on the front line for almost as long. She's held pretty much every party office there is, and she's already served as a government minister under Chancellor Angela Merkel. Nahles is part of the political establishment. And that's precisely her problem. She embodies everything that's gone wrong in recent years. Can someone like that reinvent themselves?
Rather naïve
One-third of the party delegates must have answered "No" to this question, which is no surprise. Rather, it appears naïve of Andrea Nahles to have hoped more people would back her. Has she forgotten how close the result of the vote was at the last party conference in Bonn: the vote on whether to go ahead with coalition negotiations with the CDU? What the "no" voters on Sunday wanted to do was send a signal to the party leadership.
In this context, Sunday's election result in Wiesbaden is simply an honest one. The SPD has fallen out of favor with voters. It is standing almost on the edge of the abyss, just shy of no longer being one of the major parties. Andrea Nahles must now turn things around; she must guarantee the resurgence of social democracy. She will be measured by her achievements in this regard and nothing else. At the same time, she must reunite the party. It's a herculean task. Not for nothing has Nahles been dubbed a "Trümmerfrau," or "rubble woman" — the name given to the women who cleared away debris from the wasteland Germany had become and rebuilt it after World War II.
The SPD's year of turmoil
From neck-and-neck with Merkel's CDU to worst post-war performance, the SPD has witnessed its support nosedive. As members vote on whether to join a Merkel-led government, Germany's oldest party stands at a crossroads.
Image: Getty Images/M. Hitij
January 2017: 'Schulz effect' sees the SPD flying in the polls
The SPD appeared to have struck gold when it nominated Martin Schulz, the former president of the European Parliament, to challenge Angela Merkel for chancellor in the 2017 elections. In what came to be dubbed as the "Schulz effect," the SPD's shake-up at the top saw the party surge in the opinion polls to up to 33 percent, neck-and-neck with Merkel's conservatives.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/K. Nietfeld
May 2017: SPD loses two state elections in a week. First Schleswig-Holstein ...
By May, however, the Schulz effect had faded. If the SPD wanted to prove it was a serious contender for September's federal election, it needed to retain its place at the helm of two key state governments. The first state election in Schleswig-Holstein, however, saw the CDU record an "easy" victory, winning by five points. The CDU went on to form a coalition with the Greens and Free Democrats.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/B. Marks
... Then its NRW stronghold
Things went from bad to worse a week later, when Merkel's party defeated the SPD in their stronghold in North Rhine-Westphalia. The SPD had ruled NRW for 46 of the past 51 years. However, it only picked up 31 percent of the vote this time, seven points lower than in 2012. Schulz described the defeat as "crushing," while outgoing state premier Hannelore Kraft resigned as state SPD party chief.
Image: Imago/DeFodi
September 2017: Lackluster election debate
Come September, with the federal election just weeks away, some pundits still gave Schulz half a chance of clinching the chancellery. However, the televised election debate between the two candidates exposed the effects of a grand coaltion. The two leaders seemed happy to agree with the other's proposals, rather than have a debate. And yet viewers still saw Merkel as the more credible candidate.
Image: Reuters/F. Bensch
September 2017: Germany decides — SPD suffers worst result in post-war era
In its worst election showing since World War II, the SPD scraped just over 20 percent of the vote. It would claim just 40 seats in the Bundestag, 40 fewer than before. Schulz, however, vowed to stay on and lead the party in opposition. The move was widely welcomed by the party's rank and file. It was time for a much-needed recharge and reappraisal.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/R. Weihrauch
December 2017: GroKo after all
After talks to form a coalition with the Greens and FDP collapsed in November, Merkel had no choice but to turn to Schulz to form a governing coalition. After much "umming" and "ahing," the SPD leadership decided to enter preliminary talks with the conservatives. Well aware that the move would be unpopular with many in the party, Schulz said the party's 460,000 would get the final say.
Image: picture alliance/Photoshot/S. Yuqi
January 2018: SPD balks at grand coalition blueprint
However, no sooner had Schulz agreed on a preliminary deal then senior figures in SPD demanded an extensive overhaul. Schulz's failure to prevent a migration cap, establish a "citizens' insurance" scheme and abolish fixed employee contracts raised serious doubts whether party officials would agree to proceed to formal talks.
Image: Reuters/H. Hanschke
January 2018: The start of a revolt?
Ahead of a party conference that would see SPD members vote on the preliminary coalition plan, the movement against another grand coalition began to gather heavy steam. The face of this grassroots revolt was SPD youth wing head Kevin Kühnert. In a series of impassioned speeches, the 28-year-old didn't just win the backing of youngsters, but convinced several senior figures as well.
Image: Imago/R. Zensen
January 2018: Delegates approve preliminary coalition deal
Despite the heavy backlash, SPD delegates still approved the coalition deal. Of the votes, 362 were in favor of talks compared with 279 against. In a bid to shore up support, then-party leader Schulz said there would be "tough negotiations" with Merkel's conservatives. But that didn't stop critics from accusing Schulz of making concessions to Merkel.
Image: Reuters/W. Rattay
February 2018: SPD takes finance ministry
After the announcement of a coalition agreement, media reports claimed that the finance ministry had been given to the SPD, marking what some consider a major victory for the center-left party. The SPD's Olaf Scholz, the popular mayor of Hamburg, was reportedly tapped to head the ministry. If it proves true, it will be the first time in almost nine years that the SPD controls it.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/C. Charisius
February 2018: Spat with Gabriel
In early February, tensions inside the SPD reached a fever-pitch. Gabriel told German media that Schulz didn't appreciate the job he had done as foreign minister. Days before, Schulz had signaled his desire to lead the foreign ministry. "The only thing left is remorse over how disrespectful we've become with one another in our dealings and how little someone's word still country," Gabriel said.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/B.v.Jutrczenka
February 2018: Schulz out, Nahles to take over?
Former Labor Minister Andrea Nahles is a strong contender to head the center-left party. She made a name for herself as the leader of the SPD's youth branch. However, her impassioned defense of joining a Merkel-led coalition in January was seen as the key to clinching a majority to move forward on formal talks. But she'll have to wait until April 22, when the SPD will choose its next leader.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/O. Berg
February 2018: Plummeting poll numbers
If anything, the decision to pursue a Merkel-lead coalition has further dragged support for the party. A poll published in February showed the party at 16 percent if elections were held on February 18, a 2-percent drop from the previous poll a month before. Polls now show the SPD neck-and-neck with the far-right AFD.
Image: picture-alliance/Zuma Press/O. Messinger
February 2018: Members vote
SPD members – all 463,723 of them – will now vote on whether the party can join a coalition with the CDU and CSU. The members have until March 2 to submit their ballots with results expected shortly after the due date. Until then, Germany waits on the prospect of a new government.
Image: picture alliance/Citypress24
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From that point of view, perhaps it's no bad thing, politically speaking, that the new SPD leader didn't receive premature praise. As a "Trümmerfrau," she has a chance to show what she can do. She's someone who can work hard, and she can fight.Just 66 percent — it can only really get better. Or to quote the old socialist workers' song: "Toward the sun, toward freedom, upwards to the light! Out of the dark of the past, the future shines bright."
