US President Joe Biden needs to move beyond a Cold War mentality to effectively counter Vladimir Putin's asset-rich regime, says Konstantin Eggert.
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Vladimir Putin exuded satisfaction as he appeared before journalists after a 3 1/2-hour meeting with Joe Biden in Geneva. And he had good reason. With the summit, the US president had single-handedly lifted the Russian strongman out of international isolation and given a green light to other Western leaders, including the German chancellor and the French president, to do so more frequently as well — should they wish to.
Cybersecurity key for Biden
Putin's press conference was mostly the usual game of Soviet-style "whataboutism" — including comparing the Kremlin's anti-media and anti-NGO legislation with the US "foreign agents" legislation, which in contrast is mostly aimed at lobbyists.
When speaking on the substance of talks, Putin also seemed pleased that planned discussions around strategic stability will address a broad range of subjects and not only the New START treaty, which must be renegotiated anyway.
It looks as if cybersecurity was a top priority for the Americans. Putin must have known this, and how it should not be too difficult for him to accede to US demands — at least as far as Russian special services cyber teams are concerned. Putin must have also been pleased with the fact that Ukraine — a singular issue around which most of his self-image and domestic prestige revolves — did not feature prominently in the discussions in Geneva.
Leaving the Cold War mentality behind
As is frequently the case at such summits, Biden and Putin traded well-prepared giveaways. US and Russian ambassadors John J. Sullivan and Anatoly Antonov will return to their respective posts in Washington and Moscow. Putin also hinted at a possible exchange of two US citizens jailed in Russia for Russian nationals imprisoned in the US.
It was clear Biden came to the summit very well briefed and ready to confront Putin, should he need to. As a career politician, Biden's experience is vast; his first visit to the Soviet Union was back in 1979, as a young senator.
But he may have committed a conceptual error by judging Putin on Cold War merits, as he might have done with former Soviet leaders Leonid Brezhnev or Mikhail Gorbachev. Not only is modern Russia weaker than the USSR in almost every respect — militarily, economically or demographically — but also, the nature of its leadership is now radically different. The Soviet Politburo acted on what it presumed to be in the national interest, and wasn't much concerned about losing power or property.
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'Win-win' rhetoric won't work
For Putin and his close circle, the biggest worry is the survival of their regime. They are playing a weaker hand than the Communists of old. And as opposed to them, the current ruling class also happens to own Russia's most valuable assets — oil, gas and other commodities — through the network of state corporations they manage. In such circumstances, national interests give way to the personal ones. And in modern Russia, the former has long since become a way to camouflage the latter.
This makes unpredictability the Kremlin's tool of choice in dealing with the outside world — especially the West, which Putin believes is bent on regime change in Moscow. In order to deal with Putin with at least a modicum of confidence and trust, the West must give him the guarantees he has long been seeking. This consists of letting him do what he wants domestically and leaving countries of the post-Soviet space under his unofficial tutelage, especially when it comes to deciding on issues like NATO membership. And this is something no Western politician is prepared to grant — and yet, they are not prepared to forcefully confront the Kremlin, either.
In Putin's universe, strength breeds respect. For Russian leadership, Cold War-style entreaties about common interests and "win-win" are either seen as a trap, or as a sign of weakness. The former has to be unmasked; the latter, taken advantage of.
In this respect, Ukraine remains the main political battlefield where the Kremlin will test America's new Russia policy.
Russia-US relations: The contentious issues
US President Joe Biden and Russia's Vladimir Putin are set for a showdown at a summit in Geneva on Wednesday. Here are some of the contentious points that the two sides may seek to address.
Image: Maxim Shipenkov/dpa/picture alliance
Biden playing it cool
President Joe Biden has kept his cards close to his chest ahead of the summit in Geneva. He declined to say how he plans to confront Putin during talks with his Russian counterpart — but is expected to address key issues. "I'm not looking for conflict with Russia, but we will respond if Russia continues its harmful activities," Biden said ahead of the summit.
The imprisonment of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny — who was also poisoned last summer — saw Western nations call on Moscow to ensure the opposition leader's safety. "Navalny’s death would be another indication that Russia has little or no intention of abiding by basic fundamental human rights," Biden said. In an interview with NBC, Putin would not guarantee that Navalny will leave prison alive.
Image: Michael Probst/AP/picture alliance
Cyberattacks
A string of cyberattacks linked to the Kremlin in recent years is one reason why US-Russia relations have reached a nadir since the Cold War. Putin has rejected Washington's claims that Moscow was involved, calling the allegations "farcical."
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/C. Ohde
Election meddling
A bipartisan Senate report released in 2020 found that Russia meddled in the 2016 US presidential election — and accused Putin of having greenlighted the interference aimed at getting Donald Trump into the White House. Putin has consistently denied the allegations, recently saying they were "unfounded accusations."
Image: Kevin Dietsch/newscom/picture alliance
Crimea's annexation
Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea from Ukraine caused furor worldwide. The international community has refused to officially recognize Russia's claim, though many countries have resigned themselves to the idea that the peninsula will be under the Kremlin's control in the foreseeable future. In March, Putin held a concert broadcast in Crimea to mark the annexation's anniversary.
Image: Sergei Malgavko/Tass/dpa/picture alliance
Conflict in eastern Ukraine
Fighting between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces ignited after Crimea's annexation and tensions remain to this day. Biden is expected to confront Putin about the invasion into neighboring Ukraine.
Image: Armed Forces of Ukraine/AA/picture alliance
Spy games
The families of two ex-US Marines imprisoned in Russia are hoping Biden can secure their release, as reports say both Biden and Putin are open to a prisoner swap. Trevor Reed (pictured) was convicted in 2020 for assaulting police officers in Moscow. Paul Whelan, 51, was convicted of espionage. Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout was sentenced to 25 years in a US prison for plotting to sell missiles.
Image: Reuters/T. Makeyeva
Belarus crackdown
Exiled Belarusian opposition leaders want Biden to push Putin into backing a transition of power. Putin is has backed Alexander Lukashenko, who has ruled Belarus for 27 years despite a disputed election result last year. The president has faced sanctions over Belarus' crackdown on protesters and journalists — including Raman Pratasevich, who was seized after a Ryanair plane was diverted to Minsk.
Image: Beata Zawrzel/NurPhoto/picture alliance
Arms control
The sides have an interest in discussing arms control agreements, including restarting talks on a potential follow-up to the New START agreement — the only remaining US-Russian arms control pact. The deal was extended for five years in January.
Image: Peter Klaunzer/KEYSTONE/picture alliance
Syrian aid
Biden is keen to expand humanitarian aid distribution to war-ravaged areas in Syria, but Putin has previously threatened to close the last aid crossing. Putin, a staunch ally of Syrian President Bashar Assad's, has accused the US of sowing division in the region. In July, the UN Security Council votes on whether to extend authorization for the aid crossing via Turkey — a decision Russia can veto.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/A. Watad
Nord Stream 2
The US sees the Nord Stream 2 pipeline — which would double natural gas supplies from Russia to Germany — as a geopolitical security threat. But in May the Biden administration decided to waive sanctions on the pipeline's company. The majority shareholder is the Russian state-run firm Gazprom. The move was a bid to further thaw US-EU relations after ties were strained under Trump.
Image: Jens Büttner/dpa/picture alliance
Exiting Afghanistan
The withdrawal of US and NATO troops from Afghanistan has prompted fears of a power vacuum and instability in the region. The decision to exit was criticized by Russia, the Taliban and the Afghan government. "What is concerning in this context is that the armed conflict in Afghanistan might escalate in the near future," Russia's Foreign Ministry said.
Addressing Washington's grievances is nothing new for Putin, and he's not one to back down. He has warned the West to not cross any "red lines," suggesting that any intervention in domestic affairs or in Ukraine is a no-go. The summit, which was initiated by Biden, is seen by many experts as a win in Putin's eyes — as he seeks to be on equal footing with the US on the international stage.
Image: Maxim Blinov/Sputnik/AP/picture alliance
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Correction, June 17, 2021: A previous version of this article stated that Leonid Brezhnev and Mikhail Gorbachev were Russian leaders. This has now been corrected. We apologize for the error.