There is no need to panic about coronavirus. But we also shouldn't take unnecessary risks by bringing together tens of thousands of businesspeople from around the world, says Fabian Schmidt.
The telecoms industry's biggest annual gathering attracts roughly 100,000 exhibitors and visitors from around the world, not to mention all of those people who work at the fair. Since China is the world's leading manufacturer of mobile communications components, operating systems and apps, it also sends the largest contingent of exhibitors to the fair.
Thus, it isn't surprising that fair organizers began to worry about safety when many of their Chinese exhibitors announced they would not be able to attend this year's event. In light of the current global health crisis, the cancellation of the MWC is certainly the most reasonable solution to the problem.
Fabian Schmidt works in DW's science department
Journey more dangerous than the fair
For a virus to spread rapidly, nothing is more effective than a huge international event. Nearly all those who would attend would arrive by plane, packed together for hours with 300 to 500 other passengers in an aluminum tube.
And that's not the only way to catch the virus: handrails in trains and busses, ticket machines, luggage carts, the door handles of taxi, hotel breakfast buffets, elevators — all that and more could be a potential source of infection. The risk that thousands of people could help spread the virus throughout the world is simply too great.
Will Germany'sCarnival be canceled?
The Mobile World Congress is nothing like Carnival. Sure, tourists travel to events in Rio de Janeiro, New Orleans and Cologne, but most people come from nearby. Though hundreds of thousands — if not millions — of people visit such events, they remain relatively local celebrations, and don't significantly contribute to the spread of deadly viruses.
Still, participants are well advised to take care at local events: Avoid the most jam-packed gatherings, wash your hands regularly and avoid kissing everyone you meet. And for those with signs of illness, stay in bed and don't go out into the streets.
Which industries have already been hit by the coronavirus?
Many companies have been impacted by the coronavirus outbreak in the Chinese province of Wuhan. Some see it as a business opportunity; some see problems for the global supply chain. DW takes inventory.
Image: VLADIMIR MARKOV via REUTERS
The German chancellor in Wuhan
In 2019, Chancellor Angela Merkel visited the Webasto plant in Wuhan, China. The factory is now closed. The medical tech division of Siemens, on the other hand, does not anticipate increasing demand for its X-ray machines and computer tomographs. "I wouldn't overestimate the short-term opportunity to do business with it. It doesn't go that quickly," said Siemens Healthineers CEO Bernd Montag.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/M. Kappeler
Clean, clean, clean
Chemical companies on the other hand see an opportunity. Lanxess is seeing increased demand for its disinfectant Rely+On Virkon. The antiseptic is used to disinfect hard surfaces and equipment and can be effective against the coronavirus and, especially in China, it will be used more, the company said. Currently they are working to deliver additional quantities as quickly as possible.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/P. Pleul
Eating in: Shops and restaurants
At Yum China's fast food chains KFC and Pizza Hut the doors are closed. Luckin Coffee is also offline. The Swedish fashion chain H&M closed about 45 branches in China and the jeans manufacturer Levi Strauss about half of its stores. However, experts assume that the effects on many stores will be small as a lot of their business is now done online.
Image: picture-alliancedpa/imaginechina/Y. Xuan
Adidas and Nike on watch
Like US competitor Nike, German sporting goods manufacturer Adidas temporarily closed many of its own stores in China. In addition, franchise business will be closely monitored. However, it is still too early to assess the effects. In any case, there will be no big advertising events like this one with French soccer star Paul Pogba in Hong Kong 2017.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/Stringer/Imaginechina
Carmakers particularly at risk
The epidemic could have "an enormous economic impact," especially for the German car industry, according to car industry expert Ferdinand Dudenhöffer. Volkswagen's 33 plants (here the group's own test track in Xinjiang) and its joint ventures in China will remain closed until the weekend, but so far planned deliveries are not at risk.
Image: Imago Images/Xinhua
No one is really safe
At Daimler, maker of the Mercedes brand (here a Maybach on show in Beijing), the majority of Chinese production is due to start again next Monday. However, the company is increasingly focusing on having people work from home. At BMW, production in Shenyang is also expected to start again on Monday. Distributors are now already working from home, too.
Image: picture alliance/dpa
Honda remains cautious
Japanese carmaker Honda plans to keep its three car plants in Wuhan closed longer for the Chinese New Year holiday. The plants, which are operated together with Chinese manufacturer Dongfeng, will stay idle until at least February 13, a spokesman said. It is not yet clear whether production will then restart, as the company will follow the guidelines of the local authorities.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Supplies are not being replenished
The virus is increasingly becoming a problem for complex global interlinked supply chains. The auto industry is a good example of this. The South Korean manufacturer Hyundai will suspend all of its domestic production this week, because necessary parts that are normally delivered from China are not coming. Analysts believe that similar problems will soon affect many companies.
Image: Reuters/Aly Song
The Chinese are staying away
Some impacts are already noticeable in Germany, too. Partly because of the risk of infection, fewer visitors are expected at the "Ambiente" consumer goods fair in Frankfurt. This is partially the result of the reduced flight connections from China, said a spokesman for the trade fair organizer. Lufthansa and other international airlines have cut their connections to mainland China.
Image: Dagmara Jakubczak
It's Germany. Always be prepared!
A quarantine hall at Frankfurt Airport has already been set up for coronavirus evacuees. In 2018, there were more than 1 million people who arrived from China. Most passengers from China arriving in Germany usually land in Frankfurt. The most important Chinese hubs with connections to Germany are the airports in Beijing, Shanghai and Hong Kong. There are no direct flights to and from Wuhan.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/Y. Schreiber
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What about the flu?
One could argue that major international trade fairs should be cancelled during flu season as well. On its face, that would seem to make sense, as a flu can indeed be extremely deadly. That was seen at the end of World War I, when within a matter of months more people died from the Spanish flu than during the entirety of the four-year conflict.
But comparisons between the coronavirus epidemic and the flu don't quite make sense. The flu has been extensively researched, and we know a lot about the virus and how it acts. People at risk can even be immunized against the flu — but quarantine is pointless, as the illness can strike anywhere at any time.
Early days for coronavirus
The story is entirely different with the coronavirus. Geographically isolated, its spread — with few exceptions — has been halted thanks to strict quarantine measures, giving hope to those who think a pandemic can be avoided. That optimism has been buoyed by the fact that China, which initially ignored the problem, has implemented a repressive quarantine policy. It remains too soon, however, to say if that policy will entirely halt the spread of the contagion.
Empty cultural sites: Coronavirus hits China's tourism industry
The Forbidden City is abandoned, and parts of the Great Wall are closed. The coronavirus has forced top tourist attractions in China to close their doors as cultural events have ground to a halt.
Image: AFP/G. Baker
Global impact
The coronavirus epidemic has consequences for international cultural events. The Art Basel Hong Kong art fair has been canceled. China has downsized its participation in the 70th Berlin International Film Festival. The Chinese National Opera's New Year's Concert in Berlin was also canceled; musicians and performers are not allowed to leave because of the coronavirus crisis.
Image: Getty Images
Closed to tourists
Usually, crowds of tourists jostle their way through the Forbidden City. Now, a lonely tourist has Beijing's Palace Museum all to himself. The city's imperial palace, built from 1420 to 1644, is considered an architectural masterpiece and has been a UNESCO World Heritage Site since 1987. It was initially the seat of the Ming and later the Qing dynasty, and where the emperor and his court lived.
Image: AFP/G. Baker
Attractions on hold
Disneyland Shanghai has closed its doors to the Magic Kingdom for the time being. The coronavirus outbreak intensified at the start of the Chinese New Year. Subsequent quarantine and travel restrictions caused the annual surge of holiday travel within and to China to collapse. Last year the industry reported a turnover of $78 billion (€71.5 billion) during the weeklong holidays alone.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/Kyodo/Maxppp
No access
In the fight against the coronavirus, China's authorities have not stopped at shutting down historical sites. Parts of the Great Wall of China, a powerful symbol for the country, have been closed off. The section of the wall in Badaling, northern Beijing (photo above), which is highly popular with tourists, is closed. Also closed are the Ming graves and the Yinshan Pagoda.
Image: Reuters/C. G. Rawlins
Dragon dance
Spring in Shenyang in 2019: A dance group performs a dragon dance on the occasion of the Longtaitou Festival, when China celebrates the second day of the second month in the Chinese lunar calendar. It is known as "the day when the dragon raises its head," and the country and nature regain strength. This year, it falls on February 24, but the coronavirus epidemic could put a damper on events.
We also know very little about the new virus. Does it have long-term effects? How many people actually have a mild coronavirus infection? How lethal is it?
Until we have definitive answers to such questions, the only appropriate action can be to exercise caution and cancel the occasional international event. Because once a virus is let loose in the world, there is no way to contain it.
