The fear of viruses, just like the price of shares, often has less to do with reality than with irrational expectations. The latest coronavirus epidemic will taper off, just like those before it, says Fabian Schmidt.
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No doubt, the news of an impending epidemic is scary, and the novel coronavirus (nCoV) appears to be spreading rapidly with the number of deaths rising continuously. China, where the virus emerged, has implemented drastic measures and placed no fewer than 43 million citizens under quarantine. These steps will surely be effective in stopping the nCoV outbreak.
And if the Chinese government actually succeeds in maintaining the quarantine over Hubei province and other affected regions for several weeks, the epidemic might end sooner than expected.
Infected with fear
But the fear of viruses, just like the price of shares, often has less to do with reality than with irrational expectations. Face masks, worn by those hoping it will protect them from an infection, are manifestations of an irrational gut feeling. Those wearing them have, in other words, become infected by fear.
What is clear is that the Chinese government's determined steps to stop the nCoV outbreak are proving effective. And around the world, fear of the new coronavirus is far outpacing its actual dispersion.
Let's take a deep breath
Maybe we should all put aside the face masks, take a deep breath and look at the facts: coronaviruses have been considered relatively harmless pathogens that tend to cause common colds.
DW's Fabian Schmidt
But coronaviruses are also very adaptable and can mutate into highly dangerous pathogens, as we witnessed in the twenty-first century. The SARS and MERS epidemics — each caused by coronaviruses transmitted from animals to humans — changed the public perception of these pathogens.
Admittedly, both strands were rather dangerous. SARS killed one in ten individuals infected by the virus who went into hospital care. And the MERS virus, transmitted from camels, killed one in three infected individuals who were treated in hospital.
Take official figures with a pinch of salt
It later transpired, however, that many more people on the Arabian Peninsula had become infected with the MERS virus without ever developing particularly serious symptoms or requiring medical treatment. China's nCoV epidemic could well prove similar.
Currently, the number of nCoV patients and fatalities is rising rapidly. The virus is spreading fast. Yet like all epidemics, the infection rate will eventually taper off because those infected by it will have become immune. And, judging by official figures, only one in 40 nCoV cases has so far been fatal.
It also needs to be said that many Wuhan residents infected with nCoV are simply staying at home to recover, as so far no effective drug treatment exists. So while there are individuals seeking hospital care due to serious nCoV symptoms, many more unreported nCoV cases presumably exist as well, which do not show up in the official stats.
Coronavirus: Timeline of the global spread of COVID-19
Since the first cases were confirmed in December 2019, the flu-like COVID-19 virus exploded into a global pandemic, killing tens of thousands of people and infecting around 800,000. Scientists scramble for a vaccine.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/SOPA Images/A. Marzo
Pneumonia-like virus hits Wuhan
On December 31, 2019, China notifies the World Health Organization of a string of respiratory infections in the city of Wuhan, home to some 11 million people. The root virus is unknown and disease experts around the world begin working to identify it. The strain is traced to a seafood market in the city, which is quickly shut down. Some 40 people are initially reported to be infected.
Image: Imago Images/UPI Photo/S. Shaver
First death in China
On January 11, China announces the first death from the coronavirus — a 61-year-old man, who had shopped at the Wuhan market, dies from complications with pneumonia. Like SARS and the common cold, scientists identified that the new virus is in the coronavirus family. It is temporarily named 2019-nCoV. Symptoms include fever, coughing, difficulty breathing, and pneumonia.
Image: Reuters/Str
Virus reaches neighboring countries
In the following days, countries such as Thailand and Japan begin to report cases of infections in people who had visited the same Wuhan market. In China, a second fatality is confirmed in the city. By January 20, three people have died in China and more than 200 are infected.
Image: Reuters/Kim Kyung-Hoon
Millions under lockdown
China places Wuhan on quarantine on January 23 in an attempt to limit the spread of the virus. Transportation is suspended and workers attempt to quickly build a new hospital to treat infected patients, which total over 830 by January 24, as the death toll climbs to 26. Officials eventually extend the lockdown to 13 other cities, affecting at least 36 million people.
Image: AFP/STR
A global health emergency?
More and more cases are confirmed outside of China, including in South Korea, the US, Nepal, Thailand, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia and Taiwan. As the number of infections rises, the World Health Organization on January 23 determines that it's "too early" to declare a global public health emergency.
Image: Getty Images/X. Chu
Coronavirus reaches Europe
On January 24, French authorities confirm three cases of the new coronavirus within its borders, marking the disease's first appearance in Europe. Hours later, Australia confirms four people have been infected with the respiratory virus.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/S. Mortagne
First cases confirmed in Germany
On January 27, Germany announces its first known case of the virus — a 33-year-old in Bavaria who contracted it during a workplace training with a visiting Chinese colleague. He is put under quarantine and observation at a Munich hospital. The following day, three of his colleagues are confirmed infected. The death toll in China reaches 132, with around 6,000 infected worldwide.
Image: Reuters/A. Uyanik
WHO declares global health emergency
On January 30, the UN's World Health Organization (WHO) declares coronavirus a public health emergency of international concern in a bid to protect countries with "weaker health systems." However, WHO Secretary-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus does not recommend trade and travel restrictions, saying these would be "an unnecessary disruption."
Image: picture-alliance/KEYSTONE/J.-C. Bott
First death outside China
The first death linked to the novel coronavirus outside of China is reported in the Philippines on February 2. A 44-year-old Chinese man had traveled from Wuhan to Manila before falling ill and being taken to hospital, where he later died of pneumonia.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/T. Aljibe
Bad ending to a cruise
Also on February 3, the cruise ship Diamond Princess is quarantined off Yokohama in Japan after cases of the new coronavirus were found on board. As of February 17, the number of people infected has grown to more than 450, the largest cluster of cases outside of China. Several of the 3,700 passengers and crew onboard the ship are being or have been flown back to their home countries.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/kyodo
Italy under quarantine
Cases in Italy rise dramatically, with 77 deaths and thousands of confirmed cases by March 3. Many countries instigate travel restrictions to northern Italy and tourist numbers plummet. On March 8, the Italian government put the entire Lombardy region into quarantine, affecting 16 million people. March 10 sees 168 fatalities in Italy, the highest in a single day.
Image: Reuters/R. Casilli
Economic woes
European and US stock markets slump on March 6, leading to the worst week since the 2008 financial crisis. The effect on global business has been significant, with many companies reporting losses and the tourism industry and airlines badly hit. The EU pledge €7.5 billion ($8.4 billion) on March 10 in an investment fund to try to stop the Eurozone falling into a recession.
Image: picture-alliance/Jiji Press/M. Taguchi
WHO declares outbreak as pandemic
As worldwide cases top 127,000 and deaths pass 4,700, the World Health Organization designates the global outbreak as a "pandemic" on March 11. US President Donald Trump announces a travel restriction on people coming from the Schengen Zone in Europe, annoying the EU. German Chancellor Angela Merkel announces that in Germany, 70% of the population could get the virus.
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Public life on hold in Europe
On March 14, Spain joins Italy in imposing a near-total nationwide lockdown to prevent the virus spreading. The population of 46 million is told not to leave their homes unless for essential tasks. In France, cafés, restaurants and non-essential shops are closed as of March 15. Many public events in Germany are cancelled and schools close.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/AAB. Akbulut
International travel severely restricted
As of March 15, many countries impose strict travel bans or restrictions in an attempt to stop the spread of Covid-19. For example, New Zealand and Australia require all international passengers to self-isolate for 14 days after arrival in the country. The US extends a European travel ban to include the United Kingdom and Ireland.
Image: picture-alliance/Photoshot
Germany imposes partial lockdown
In a landmark televised address German Chancellor Angela Merkel announces far-reaching restrictions on everyday life on March 22, banning meetings between more than two people not from the same household outside of the workplace. The country has a surprisingly low death rate, a phenomenon attributed to a high level of testing, and a high number of intensive care beds.
Image: picture-alliance/EibnerT. Hahn
Virus strikes at top as UK locks down
On March 23rd Britain becomes the latest country to impose restrictions on personal freedoms, with people only allowed to leave their homes in a limited number of circumstances. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is diagnosed with the viruson March 27, as well as heir to the throne Prince Charles on March 25. Meanwhile, there are complaints that not everyone is taking social distancing seriously.
Image: picture-alliance/R. Pinney
Grim milestone for the US
On March 27 the US overtakes China in terms of the number of people infected, making it the country with the most cases of COVID-19. This came as President Donald Trump claimed that the nation would get back to work "pretty quickly." At the same time, it emerged that more than 3 million Americans had lost their jobs due to the pandemic. New York is worst-hit, with a hospital ship sent to help out.
Image: picture-alliance/Photoshot/J. Fischer
Spain's surging death toll
Spain also overtakes China in the number of COVID-19 cases on March 30, as the government toughens the severity of its lockdown. All non-essential activities are halted. Only Italy has a higher death toll than Spain. Most affected is the capital, Madrid. With funeral services overwhelmed, officials turn the Palacio de Hielo ice skating rink into a temporary morgue.
Image: picture-alliance/Geisler-Fotopress
More than a million
On April 2nd the Johns Hopkins University announced on Thursday that there were more than a million confirmed coronavirus cases around the world. The US is the most affected with three times the number than China, where the virus emerged in December. Over 50.000 people have died — and the outlook remains grim.
Image: Reuters/J. Redmond
UK PM Boris Johnson hospitalized
The 55-year-old was admitted to the intensive care unit at London's St Thomas hospital on Monday evening (6.4.) and was given oxygen treatment after his condition worsened. He had been diagnosed with COVID-19 on March 27.
Image: AFP/10 Downing Street
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Focus on flu prevention
If all these harmless cases were taken into account as well, it might indicate that nCoV is no more dangerous than an ordinary flu that spreads around the globe each year, killing thousands or tens of thousands of people. Right now, after all, it is once again flu season in the Northern Hemisphere.
So maybe we should stop worrying about nCoV. And instead focus on not getting the flu, by ensuring we thoroughly rinse our hands after traveling on public trains and buses, or touching door handles in public buildings. No need for a face mask, either. But you might want to get a flu jab, actually.
