Four points behind! The SPD is back where it was before Martin Schulz's nomination: in a rut. Whether he can actually threaten Merkel's chances at re-election remains to be seen, says Volker Wagener.
Advertisement
Image: picture alliance/dpa/U. Baumgarten
We all laughed at the cartoon that Germany's Frankfurter Rundschau newspaper ran after the SPD (Germany's Social Democratic Party) pulled miracle candidate Martin Schulz out of the proverbial hat.
It featured a drawing of Merkel, amused and gleefully observing the excited commotion surrounding her challenger's candidacy. The accompanying speech bubble featured the words: "Come on Schulzi, scare me!"
'Come on Schulzi, scare me!'
The cartoon gave two reasons to laugh: When was the last time the SPD struck fear into the hearts of its political opponents? And the flip adolescent quip from Merkel represented the polar opposite to the real Angela Merkel.
But current opinion polls make it easy to forget: That which no one expected, in fact happened. Schulzi scared the hell out of "Mutti"! (Merkel has been dubbed "Mutti," which means "Mummy"). But not for long.
And what does that tell us? Nothing at all! With federal elections several months away, it has become a universal political platitude to point out that anything can happen between now and then. The only thing that is unique and incalculable this time around is what exactly will affect the mood of Germany's collective psyche, and ultimately the country's voters.
DW's Volker Wagener
The Merkel Factor is back
In late 2015 and early 2016 Angela Merkel seemed politically dead. The once popular Merkel brand was facing bankruptcy in the wake of her refugee policy decisions. Had her CDU (Christian Democratic Union) still had its pre-Merkel line up - a bunch of alpha males fighting for primacy - then she would have lost her job as party boss and chancellor.
But since the clever East Bloc Girl managed to knock off all of those Old Men of the West over the years, and still had enough authority to keep a weak, Sigmar Gabriel-led SPD in check, she is right there where she was 12 years ago: She is once again the undisputed chancellor of Germany.
And that has a lot to do with the path that the world is on right now. Her refugee policy, although well-intentioned and fundamentally correct - but in part poorly implemented - is no longer the only yardstick with which voters measure her success.
Trust is the currency with which good policy is repaid these days. The Germans, it seems, are more fearful of the Trumps of the world than with the topic of refugees - which has quieted considerably. They fear the erosion of international cooperation, the denigration of the EU, national egoism and chauvinism. Whether Orban, Putin, Erdogan or Trump, Brexit or the USA's new isolationism - such topics anger, annoy and scare voters. The only thing that can help is … yes, you guessed it: Merkel's trademark gesture - the Merkel rhombus, which has itself become a symbol of projecting "calm" and "steadiness."
Doubts cast on center-left leadership
All that and more are reflected in the latest opinion polls. Some 69 percent of those surveyed said that Merkel's leadership was the reason Germany was doing so well in such uncertain times. Martin Schulz still has nothing to show, and does not have the advantage of incumbency. The only thing that he once had, was the euphoria of a fresh start. Nevertheless, he may be down, but he's not out. He and Merkel cannot really damage one another in terms of their political programs. Both are devoted Europeans, and also representatives of a broad political center - where elections are still won in Germany.
That also explains why the Green Party and Alternative for Germany (AfD) are currently in retreat and the Left Party is in utter stagnation. This gravitation towards the protection and warmth of the political center has benefited the two major parties - which not long ago were in danger of losing the honorary distinction of being known as "people's parties." It must also be said that in the rush of real time digital communication that dominates our current political age, every rumor, Tweet or fake news story can very quickly manipulate opinions, so polls now don't tell us anything. And that is just fine. Let Schulzi scare Mutti a bit - or not. People will vote on September 24. Maybe the result will tell us more about Trump & Co., than about Mutti & Schulzi.
Have something to say? Please leave your comments below. The thread closes automatically after 24 hours.
A timeline of Germany's 2017 elections
With three state elections and the Bundestag vote in the fall, 2017 is a decisive year in German politics. DW looks at key dates leading up to this fall's federal election.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/C. Rehder
Germany's big election year
The stakes are high for Germany's election year. With Chancellor Angela Merkel up for a fourth term and the populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party attempting to cash in on anti-migrant sentiment, one thing is clear - German politics won't be the same by the end of 2017. Here's a look at the most important dates.
Image: Getty Images
March 26 - Saarland state parliament election
Germany's "super election year" kicked off in the small western state of Saarland, on the French border. Chancellor Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) came out on top, snagging over 40 percent of the vote and securing a third term for state premier Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (L). The populist AfD will also enter Saarland's parliament for the first time after claiming 6.2 percent of the vote.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/M. Kappeler
May 7 - CDU victory in Schleswig-Holstein
State elections in northern Schleswig-Holstein saw Merkel's CDU overtaking the ruling Social Democrats (SPD) in a surprising upset. The CDU, led by top candidate Daniel Günther (above), won 32 percent of the vote while the SPD dropped three points to 27 percent. Anti-immigrant AfD will also enter the Schleswig-Holstein parliament after clearing the 5 percent hurdle.
Image: Getty Images/M. MacMatzen
May 14 - All eyes on NRW election
The CDU pulled off one of it's biggest victories yet, unseating the SPD in its stronghold in North Rhine-Westphalia. The business-friendly FDP also made significant gains and the AfD will also enter parliament after getting 7 percent. As Germany's most populous state with around 18 million residents, the NRW poll is seen as a test run for how the federal election will play out in September.
Image: Reuters/K. Pfaffenbach
June 19 - Party applications due
The 97th day before the election is the cut off date for any party to announce its intention to run for the Bundestag. They have to submit their applications by 6 p.m. to the Federal Returning Officer. Roderich Egeler (above) oversees the election and heads Germany's Statistical Office.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/A. Burgi
July 7 - Who is allowed in?
On the 79th day before the election, the parties that are allowed to take part in the election are announced by the Federal Returning Officer. If a party does not agree with decision, it has four days to file a complaint with Germany's Constitutional Court.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/U. Deck
July 17 - Who made the list?
Political parties in Germany have until the 69th day before the election to determine which candidates will be running in which constituency. These representatives make up the first vote on Germany's split ballot. Parties must also submit a list of candidates for the party vote on the second half of the ballot.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/O. Berg
July 27 - Fighting for a spot on the ballot
Smaller parties that filed a suit with the Constitutional Court to be allowed to take part in the election will receive their verdicts today. This option has only been available since the last Bundestag election in 2013. At that time, 11 parties petitioned the court to appear on the ballot - but none were successful.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/W. Steinberg
August 13 - Campaigning officially begins
Unlike other countries, parties in Germany cannot put up campaign posters or run TV ads until 6 weeks before the election. But on August 13, the campaign floodgates open and no lamp post will be safe from the cardboard visages of each party's main candidates.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/M. Balk
August 20 - Who can vote?
A little over one month shy of the election, the most important list is compiled - the electoral register or voter list. In Germany, every citizen who is 18 years or older can vote in the general election - meaning there are 61.5 million eligible voters this year.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/K.-D. Gabbert
September 3 - Three weeks to go
At this point, all eligible voters should have recieved an authorization certificate in the mail. People who aren't already on the voter list still have time to register. Those who wish to vote-by-mail can request their ballot.
Image: picture-alliance/R. Goldmann
September 18 - Prepping the polls
Less than a week to go and preparations are kicking into high gear. Ballots, polling booths and transport boxes start rolling in and election workers are trained. Local authorities must inform voters where they should go to vote. Residents can still register until 36 hours before the election.
Image: picture-alliance/R. Goldmann
September 24 - Election day
The big day has finally arrived. Schools, gym halls and community centers are transformed as people arrive to cast their ballots. Polling stations open at 8:00 a.m. sharp and at 6:00 p.m. they close again. The votes are tallied and the Federal Returning Officer announces the preliminary results that same night.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
September 25 - Winners and Losers
Only after all of the representative and party votes are counted, the final result is announced. If a candidate did not win his or her constituency, they could still get a seat in the Bundestag if they made the party's regional list.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/M. Kappeler
October 24 - The 19th Bundestag convenes
The newly elected parliament must meet for the first time no later than one month after the election. Afterwards comes the tricky work of coalition negotiations, followed by a secret ballot to elect the next chancellor.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
November 24 - Everything fair-and-square?
If anyone wants to challenge the validity of the election, they have two months to do so. All voters, the state election overseers, the president of the Bundestag and the Federal Election Commissioner (above) are entitled to appeal the result.
