Trump and Kim can both consider the summit a great success. North Korea will abandon its nuclear program for security guarantees. But a real relaxation of tensions takes time and above all trust, says Alexander Freund.
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Who would have thought it possible? North Korea will abandon its nuclear program in exchange for comprehensive security guarantees — it wants to look ahead and achieve a fundamental change in relations. That sounds very promising and a great sense of relief is spreading — and rightly so. A few months ago, it looked as though this endlessly simmering conflict could escalate when US President Donald Trump, after mutual insults and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's deliberate provocations, threatened to destroy North Korea blatantly before the United Nations. Now these two leaders, of all people, are shaking hands confidently and looking for a peace agreement.
Trump was able to present himself — especially to his own country — as a great foreign diplomat who finally brought peace to an almost insolvable conflict. Trump has smashed so much diplomatic porcelain in recent weeks that he also needed to land a success in foreign policy for his base in the US. Somehow, it is already an irony of history that the much-scolded Trump brought movement to this ancient conflict in his blustering way and is poised to become the American president who could finalize a peace agreement with North Korea in the near future.
Neither the Democrats Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, nor the Republicans George Bush Senior and George Bush Junior were able to achieve as much on this front, that one must give credit to this unpredictable president. At the same time, of course, any Democrat president would have been torn apart as a traitor by conservatives at home.
Victories for Trump and Kim
But Kim can also feel like a winner: For the third generation Kim leader, this agreement is a huge success. First he bombed his way to the negotiating table and then he actually met a US president at eye level. He doesn't want his regime to end like that of Saddam Hussein or Moammar Gadhafi, and so he placed a risky bet on deterrence. At the same time, Kim very skillfully secured the support of China and Russia. These two protective powers were invisibly present at the Singapore summit, as was Japan, which does not want to lose its influence in the region to the US.
North Korea: Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un's nuclear saga
North Korea's "rocket man" and America's "dotard" first threatened to fire nuclear weapons at each other. Then they wanted to talk peace, before Trump canceled. DW charts the major events in the Trump-Kim saga.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon
January 2, 2017: Missile test imminent
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said in his New Year’s address that his country was in the "final stages" of launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). US President-elect Donald Trump, whose inauguration was set for January 20, said on Twitter: "North Korea just stated that it is in the final stages of developing a nuclear weapon capable of reaching parts of the US. It won't happen!"
Image: Getty Images/AFP/KNCA
July 4, 2017: North Korea's 'gift packages'
North Korea tested its first ICBM — the Hwasong-14 — on US Independence Day. Kim reportedly told his scientists that "the US would be displeased" by the launch. This, he said, was because "it was given a 'package of gifts' ... on its 'Independence Day.'" Trump wrote on Twitter in response: "North Korea has just launched another missile. Does this guy have anything better to do with his life?"
Image: Reuters/KCNA
July 28, 2017: US mainland threatened
Pyongyang tested its second Hwasong-14 weeks later. Experts estimated the new rocket could reach the US mainland. Trump lashed out at North Korean ally China, writing in a Tweet: "I am very disappointed in China. Our foolish past leaders have allowed them to make hundreds of billions of dollars a year in trade, yet they do NOTHING for us with North Korea, just talk."
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/Korean Central News Agency
August 8, 2017: 'Fire and fury'
Trump appeared to threaten swift military action against Pyongyang when he told reporters: "North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States. They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen." North Korea responded by threatening to fire a medium-range ballistic missile into the waters around Guam, a US territory in the Pacific Ocean. It did not follow through.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/B. Anderson
August 29, 2017: Japan rocket test
Pyongyang sparked international outcry when it test-launched a mid-range ballistic missile — the Hwasong-12 — over Japan. The UN Security Council unanimously condemned the test. Trump said in a White House statement: "Threatening and destabilizing actions only increase the North Korean regime’s isolation in the region and among all nations of the world. All options are on the table."
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/kyodo
September 3, 2017: Hydrogen bomb test
North Korea announced it had successfully tested its sixth nuclear weapon. Pyongyang said it was a powerful type of nuclear weapon called a hydrogen bomb and that it could be placed on top of a ballistic missile. Trump wrote on Twitter: "The United States is considering, in addition to other options, stopping all trade with any country doing business with North Korea."
Image: Reuters/KCNA
September 19, 2017: Threat to 'Rocket Man'
In his first speech at the United Nations, Trump called North Korea a "rogue state" and said Washington "will have no choice than to totally destroy North Korea" if Pyongyang failed to stop its nuclear weapons program. Referring to Kim, he added: "Rocket man is on a suicide mission for himself and his regime." Kim called Trump a "mentally-deranged US dotard" two days later.
Image: Getty Images/S. Platt
November 29, 2017: Third ICBM test
North Korea test-fired its third ICBM of 2017. Pyongyang claimed it was a new missile, the Hwasong-15, which was superior to the Hwasong-14 and could hit any target on the US mainland. The US urged allies, including Germany, to break diplomatic ties with North Korea. Berlin ignored the call. Trump also called Kim a "sick puppy."
Image: Reuters/KCNA
January 3, 2018: Who's got the bigger button?
Kim said in his 2018 New Year's address that the North had completed its nuclear weapons program and that a "nuclear button" was on his desk at all times. Trump wrote two days later on Twitter: "Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!"
Image: Reuters/KCNA
February 10, 2018: Tensions thawing?
South Korean President Moon Jae-in welcomed Kim's sister, Kim Yo Jong, at the presidential house in the South Korean capital. She handed a letter to Moon inviting him to meet the North Korean leader in Pyongyang. Tensions appeared to be thawing. Seoul and Pyongyang had already agreed to send a unified hockey team to compete at the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/K. Ju-sung
March 6, 2018: Momentum builds
South Korean National Security Adviser Chung Eui-yong led a delegation on March 5 to Pyongyang to discuss the potential for peace talks. The next day, Chung said both sides had agreed to hold a joint summit in April and set up a telephone hotline between the two capitals. He also said Pyongyang would agree to stop its nuclear weapons and missile tests if the US agreed to hold talks with the North.
Image: Reuters/Yonhap/Reuters/Yonhap/South Korean Presidential Blue House
March 9, 2018: Trump agrees
Chung flew on to Washington, D.C. to speak with Trump. After the meeting, Chung told reporters the US president had agreed to meet Kim by May. Trump later wrote on Twitter: "no missile testing by North Korea during this period of time. Great progress being made but sanctions will remain until an agreement is reached. Meeting being planned!" Foreign leaders welcomed the historic breakthrough.
Image: picture-alliance/AP/dpa/Wong Maye-E
April 19, 2018: 'Denuclearization'
A week before the scheduled meeting at the border between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Moon said North Korea wanted "an end to the hostile relations" and had expressed a commitment to "complete denuclearization" of the peninsula. The next day, the telephone hotline was connected for the first time since February 2016, so Moon and Kim could talk directly.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/A. Young-Joon
April 21, 2018: Kim ends missile tests
Kim announced North Korea would stop nuclear and missile tests. Kim said: "We no longer need any nuclear test or test launches of intermediate and intercontinental range ballistic missiles, and because of this the northern nuclear test site has finished its mission." However, no mention was made of its stored nuclear materials and equipment.
Image: picture-alliance/AP/A. Young-joon
April 27, 2018: Historic summit
Kim and Moon Jae-in meet in the border town of Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) that has divided the two Koreas since the Korean War in 1953. The two leaders vowed to work towards a nuclear-free Korea and pledged an end to war. It was the first time a North Korean leader had set foot across the border since the 1950s and paves the diplomatic way for a Trump-Kim meeting in May or June.
Image: DW/Alexander Freund
April 30, 2018: Seoul turns off broadcasts
South Korea announces its propaganda loudspeakers are to be switched off for good. They had been silenced temporarily ahead of the inter-Korean summit, which prompted the North to halt its broadcasts, too. Pyongyang also said it would adjust its time zone to that of the South as a symbolic gesture. North Korea has been half an hour behind the South since 2015.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/E. Jones
May 24, 2018: Trump calls off Kim summit
After North Korea slammed US Vice President Mike Pence for comparing North Korea and Libya, Donald Trump abruptly canceled the summit. Trump said the move was due to "tremendous anger and open hostility" displayed by Pyongyang.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/E. Vucci
June 1, 2018: Trump backtracks
A day after scrapping the summit, Trump suggested he was still open to meeting Kim. US and North Korean officials met during the following week and on June 1, Trump met one of Kim's closest aides, Kim Yong Chol, in the White House. Shortly thereafter, Trump said the summit would indeed take place on June 12 in Singapore. "I think you're going to have a very positive result in the end," he said.
Image: picture-alliance/A. Harnik
June 12, 2018: Smiles in Singapore
Trump and Kim met in Singapore as planned. They smiled, shook hands and praised how far they had come in overcoming their previous animosity. The summit ended with both leaders signing a short joint declaration that committed Pyongyang to denuclearize and the US to providing unspecified "security guarantees" to the North. Trump also said he would invite Kim to the White House.
Image: Reuters/A. Wallace
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Trust takes time
An important first step has been taken, but trust takes time and, as is well known, the devil is in the details of such agreements — as demonstrated by the laboriously negotiated Iran nuclear deal that Trump overturned. But if the Korean Peninsula finds peace in the mid-term, then the question of how the US intends to position itself in Asia in the future will certainly become louder.
Economically, the US can no longer oppose future superpower China as much; the economic ties and dependencies between China and its Asian neighbors are too close. In terms of security policy, however, the US continues to see itself as a peacekeeping power that must put China, which is becoming increasingly self-confident, in its place.
At the Singapore Summit, Trump was once again able to highlight the central role of US as a world power on a large stage. When US warships patrol through the still-open sea routes in Asia or show up in friendly ports, the message is always the same: We oppose rivals like China and we stand by our partners. But doubts are growing as to whether the US would, indeed, send young soldiers into battle as it did in the Korean War to fight for freedom and democracy on the other side of the world and possibly die as well.
With his "America First" maxim, punitive tariffs and numerous breaches of contract, Trump has not necessarily built-up trust in Asia either. And so, in addition to all the symbolic politics, the historic Singapore Summit once again marks the beginning of the end of the United States as the world's policeman and a reliable peacekeeping power.