When Kenya's opposition leader Raila Odinga organized a mock swearing-in ceremony to name himself the 'people's president,' many saw it as non-event. Or rather, it had no real effect on Kenya's politics and conferred no power on Odinga to challenge the president sitting in the State House, Uhuru Kenyatta.

It was described as a hollow gesture by a defeated politician whose vanity had gotten the better of him.

But the effect of that so-called nonevent turned out to be anything but serious. To begin with, the mock ceremony was attended by a humongous throng, estimated to be close to a million, something nobody can ignore.

Secondly, despite initial concerns about crowd violence, the gathering was peaceful and orderly amid a scant police presence. Thirdly, and most importantly, the crowd acclaimed Odinga, leader of the National Super Alliance (NASA), as their leader.

No-show a sign of cold feet?

The importance of this third point was rendered more poignant by the absence of other NASA leaders, Musalia Mudavadi, Kalonzo Musyoka and Moses Wetangula. All tried to explain their absence in various ways, but it was clear that they had grown cold feet at the eleventh hour. The upshot of their no-show was to hand Odinga the crowd's undivided loyalty in which he basked most gleefully.

Still, it could have remained a low-key and inconsequential mise-en-scene if Uhuru Kenyatta and his Jubilee administration had treated it with indifference, in instead of reacting to it as it were serious treason and resorting to repressive measures to punish those deemed to have aided and abetted Oginda in his theatrical production.

Miguna Miguna, the self-styled 'general' of the Kenyan National Resistance Movement, who administered Odinga's oath, was abducted by security agents and whisked to the airport to be deported to Canada, where he has citizenship and practices as a barrister.   

The government also forced a number of television stations off air to prevent them from showing Odinga's swearing-in ceremony and refused to let them back on air even after the Supreme Court order. The government also revoked the passports of key NASA leaders, making it impossible for them to travel out of the country.

Odinga and his colleagues have condemned these acts as reminiscent of the regime of past president Daniel Arap Moi. Nairobi columnist Rasna Warah wrote in Tanzania's The Citizen, warning Kenyatta to resist any temptation to take Kenya back to those dark days. "People are wondering what the government will do next. Perhaps reopen the torture chambers at Nyayo House?" Warah wrote.

East African community must act

There are suggestions that more acts of defiance are in the pipeline. NASA has planned huge rallies around the country and it is mooted that after these rallies a national convention will be called in Nairobi at the end of February to adopt a number of resolutions, which will be submitted to a national referendum.

A top NASA strategist, David Ndii, says the "goal is to see the people's assembly process culminate in a presidential election under a new electoral regime no later than August 2018."

At the same time, a boycott by NASA supporters on businesses and products owned by or associated with known Jubilee leaders is continuing and there is still talk of "self-determination" and rotation of executive power among the provinces.

It is obvious that Kenya is a badly divided country and one that needs cool heads to lead it out of the impasse. The problem seems to be that on both sides of the great divide the positions are hardening, rather than softening.

Sadly, the East African Community does not seem inclined to mediate in this quarrel which could have dire consequences.