On October 2, local elections are being held in Bosnia-Herzegovina. That actually explains everything. Because in the autonomous Serb dominated part of the country known as "Republika Srpska," the economic and political situation is disastrous.

The president of this entity, Milorad Dodik, and his corrupt, incapable and arrogant colleagues have not been able to make any progress in the region. Many people there live in abject poverty, unemployment is sky high, and there's barely any proper infrastructure. More and more young people are deserting the region.

In order to distract voters from this hopelessness and transport them instead to a state of nationalistic, aggressive and irrational fervor, Dodik resorted to the tried and tested methods most often employed by populists in the Balkans. First, he painted a picture of a dramatic threat to the Serbian people. Then, he declared neighboring populations the enemy, a tactic that still works unbelievably well in the Balkans. And lastly, he offered himself as the savior of this nation under threat. Too many voters in the Balkans are happy to play along with such games, seemingly forgetting their miserable daily existence for a few weeks, not to mention the numerous corruption scandals their supposed savior has been involved in. These mechanisms have always worked perfectly in Bosnia-Herzegovina - with other ethnic groups, as well.

Difficult crisis

Even if the controversial referendum in Republika Srpska can rightly be dismissed as electoral bluster and political theater, it is, and will remain, a flagrant breach of the constitution. The result of the vote: In Republika Srpska, January 9 is to remain a "national holiday." On this day, Bosnian Serbs celebrate the declaration of their republic, but for Bosniaks and Croats in Bosnia-Herzegovina, the day marks the start of the Bosnian war.

The referendum is plunging this already unstable country into a difficult crisis, endangering its European ambitions. The very existence of such a vote is a stunning defeat for the rule of law in Bosnia-Herzegovina, which was only achieved with an abundance of foreign capital. It wasn't able to prevent the referendum. But the defeat is even greater for the international community, and especially the EU's High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, a role that is currently being filled by Austrian diplomat Valentin Inzko. Now more than ever, he's the face of this failed protectorate, the status still granted Bosnia-Herzegovina, if only formally.

Double isn't necessarily better

The referendum, which was banned by the Constitutional Court in Sarajevo and sharply criticized by the EU, is proof that this double structure of local and international protagonists isn't working - in fact, it's ineffective and powerless. Clearly, neither local politicians nor official representatives from the protectorate are able to guarantee the absolutely essential rule of law. And that's perhaps the most important lesson of the referendum.

Bosnia-Herzegovina remains the problem child of Southeastern Europe. And given its geostrategic location, it's a given that it will continue to create headaches for the EU. This is where European, Russian, and Turkish interests collide. It wasn't just a coincidence that Milorad Dodik sought the blessing of the Russian president in Moscow for his referendum, turning a deaf ear to the warnings from Brussels and Washington.

This little country has always been a strategic football for regional political protagonists from Serbia and Croatia. That's why, in the current post-referendum conflict situation, it's even more important that Serbia especially, and its strong head of government, Aleksander Vucic, is a moderate, constructive player. There is a lot to do, for everyone involved. Because the referendum is a clear step backward for the whole region, and proof that the Western Balkans is always impressively capable of fulfilling its role as Europe's unstable, problem-ridden backyard.

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