Two megalomaniac autocrats have maneuvered themselves into a political cul-de-sac, and the European Union doesn't know what to do, writes Alexander Görlach.
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Image: picture-alliance/dpa/Presidential Press Service
The so-called EU-Turkey refugee deal is off. Thousands of asylum-seekers have made their way to the Turkish-Greek border after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made clear he would not stop them from illegally crossing into the EU.
Erdogan has claimed "hundreds of thousands" are on their way, and threatened to send up to 1 million to the border. But so far, reliable sources have indicated that some 9,000 to 30,000 migrants have gathered in the no-man's land separating Turkey and Greece.
Alexander Görlach is a guest columnist for DW, The New York Times, Neue Zürcher Zeitung and WirtschaftswocheImage: Harvard University/D. Elmes
The present situation illustrates once more what happens when autocrats overestimate their abilities, take on too much and then maneuver themselves into a political cul-de-sac: Erdogan, the self-styled regional hegemon, used to depend on Russian President Vladimir Putin's support — yet now pursues a foreign policy agenda contrary to Moscow.
The erstwhile allies have become adversaries, and a direct confrontation would have unforeseeable consequences. Turkey's allies have expressed solidarity with Erdogan and promised their support for the country that is being backed into a corner by Russia, which callously bombs Syrian hospitals, schools and residential areas, forcing up to a million people to flee north.
Turkey, meanwhile, already hosts 3.6 million Syrian refugees.
But what is the situation in the European Union, where countries are committed to acting multilaterally and following the rules, for the benefit of humanity? Well, since the 2015 refugee crisis, the bloc has failed to prepare for another escalation of the Syrian conflict. And now, it finds itself — just like Turkey — at Russia's mercy. Who knows, maybe this common adversary will help Turkey and the EU overcome their differences?
At the end of the day, people are made to suffer from the 19th-century-style imperial power politics at play in Syria. Instead of a fact-based, rational, international crisis intervention, Russia seems to believe that only war will solve the Syrian conflict.
Besides, Putin will be happy to project his military might and his view that a "strong leader" who puts his foot down is better suited to solving conflict than liberal states who prefer classic diplomacy in conflict resolution.
It will be slowly dawning on Erdogan what it means to break with former allies. But Europe would be well-advised not to gloat and instead join forces with Turkey to finally work out a solution to the problem they have been putting off for years.
Syria's Idlib: A humanitarian disaster
The Syrian army, supported by Russia, is bombing the northern region of Idlib. Refugees are streaming toward the Turkish border, fleeing the continued fighting. The United Nations has warned of an imminent "bloodbath."
Image: picture-alliance/AA/E. Hacioglu
On the run
Traffic is heavy on the roads heading north through the Idlib region toward the Turkish border. Soldiers of the Assad regime are advancing from the south and east, aided by their Russian and Iranian allies. Some Syrian rebel groups are supported by Turkey, which also has soldiers of its own in the region. But ordinary people just want to reach safety.
Image: Reuters7K. Ashawi
'Horror has multiplied'
Almost 1 million people have been displaced since December. According to UN humanitarian chief Mark Lowcock, "the horror has multiplied" in the past two weeks. The front lines are closing in, triggering large movements of people in the space of just a few days. Assad wants to drive the civilian population out of Idlib province, and is moving to capture this last rebel stronghold.
Image: Reuters/K. Ashawi
Bombed to pieces
Maaret al-Numan and the surrounding area has been particularly badly hit by the attacks. The city has been bombed to pieces and is practically deserted. The important M5 highway runs through here, from Damascus via Aleppo to the Turkish border. Most of those fleeing are trying to make it to Turkey — but the border is closed.
Image: picture-alliance/AA/M. Said
Waiting at the border
Around 100 people, including 35 children, died in bombings in the first half of February alone, according to the United Nations, which has spoken of the "blatant disregard for the life and safety of civilians." This family fled to the Turkish border months ago. They're living in the Kafr Lusin refugee camp, holding on to the hope that Turkey will eventually let them in.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/A. Watad
500,000 children in need
Out of the almost 1 million people who have fled it's estimated that around half are children. Of the rest, the majority are women. There aren't enough shacks at the Turkish border to house them all, and many refugees are living in tents. Camps are often set up in haste and are severely overcrowded. People are sleeping in doorways and on pieces of cardboard, sometimes in sub-zero temperatures.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/A. Watad
Little food and medicine
Those who have been able to find a tent usually share it with about a dozen family members. Medicine is running out in many of the camps, and basic food and clothing is also becoming scarce. Doctors on the ground report that many children are suffering from malnutrition, and some are even dying of starvation. The cold is also taking its toll, and some people have already frozen to death.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/A. Watad
Refuge in a school
Many children in the region can no longer go to school, so some school buildings have been repurposed. This school has been turned into a refugee shelter — sometimes, even the refugee camps are targeted in bombing raids.
Image: Getty Images/B. Kara
Trying to reach safety
The illegal route across the border to Turkey is costly; hardly anyone can afford it. Smugglers are charging people up to $2,000 (about €1,800). Those who do make the attempt are risking their lives: Turkish border guards have thermal imaging cameras to help them spot people trying to cross. Sometimes they shoot at refugees who try to climb over the wall.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/A. Watad
Looking for dignity
The UN has said the situation in Idlib could be the greatest humanitarian disaster of the 21st century. No one knows whether or not there will be a ceasefire. The refugees don't care who puts an end to the war; they just want a life of safety and dignity, for themselves and for their children. A four-way summit between Turkey, Russia, France and Germany, planned for March 5, is now in jeopardy.
Image: Getty Images/B. Kara
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Alexander Görlach is a senior fellow with the Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs and a senior research associate at the Religion & International Studies Institute at Cambridge University. He has also held a number of scholarly and advisory positions at Harvard University. He holds doctorate degrees in comparative religion and linguistics and is a guest columnist for several publications, including The New York Times, Neue Zürcher Zeitung and business magazine Wirtschaftswoche.
