The decision by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in the Hague to issue an arrest warrant for Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi is a major victory for human rights. Last may, the ICC chief prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo applied for the arrest warrant based on evidence that Gadhafi had personally ordered attacks on unarmed civilians.

According to Ocampo, Gadhafi's regime systematically fired on peaceful demonstrators in many places across Libya. His regime has also been accused of mass rape, although human rights organizations have not been able to find conclusive evidence.

The substantiated accusations against Gadhafi and his inner circle, however, are based on the evaluation of more than 1,200 files and the examination of more than 50 witnesses. That makes the conviction of Libya's self-named revolutionary leader according to international legal standards a concrete possibility.

Political pressure

The arrest warrant, however, will have a real political impact and lead to an actual trial only if the rebels win. For almost three years now, there has been an outstanding arrest warrant against Sudan's President Omar al Bashir for genocide. He remains in power to this day.

Nonetheless, the international pressure for Gadhafi to leave Tripoli has grown as a consequence of the arrest warrant. The warrant raises the hope that his regime, which meanwhile is showing every sign of erosion, will finally collapse. The rebels, so it appears, are preparing for the decisive battle for Tripoli.

Gadhafi's options for exile have also been reduced as a result of the arrest warrant. The number of countries that can both offer him shelter while providing legal immunity from the ICC are few and far between. Uganda, for example, where Gadhafi owns a lot of property and has developed good contacts is now out of the picture because the country is an ICC member state.

The case is different with Libya's neighbor Sudan, where Gadhafi has recruited many of his mercenaries. The Libyan leader could seek refuge there without being exposed to the arrest warrant for the duration of his exile.

Wherever Gadhafi and his inner circle may flee, the international military coalition led by NATO has to make sure that the Libyan dictator will not end up in a country that allows him to escape prosecution. If that scenario were to become reality, the West's already taxed credibility would deteriorate further.

Rule of law

A judicial process by the ICC would also be best for post-revolutionary Libya. It could spare the nation from lynch justice and a protracted civil war. An examination of his crimes through a fair legal process would certainly do more for a nascent Libyan democracy than a political show trial.

In the Hague, Gadhafi's human rights violations would be brought to justice through the rule of law. Instead of revenge, serious research and international law would lead to a just punishment. That would send a message to all tyrants in the world and serve as an example for a liberated Libya.

Author: Daniel Scheschkewitz/ slk
Editor: Rob Mudge