Germany has recognized Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido as interim president. But DW's Oliver Pieper doubts whether diplomatic pressure on Caracas will equate to any change on the ground.
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Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/F. Llano
When asked how many moves he thinks ahead during a match, chess legend Bobby Fischer once replied: "I don't think ahead at all — I win like that." Fellow grandmaster Samuel Reshevsky's answer to the same question wasn't quite so haughty: "One move ahead of my opponent!"
Politics is like chess: Either the sheer force of conviction allows for a certain pomposity a la Fischer or — as is more often the case in realpolitik — you consider the opponent's possible reactions and are prepared to react quickly, especially when the rival across the table is a seasoned crook.
Germany initially gave Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro an ultimatum: eight days to call new elections — for the presidency, mind you, not for the parliament. If elections were not scheduled, Berlin would recognize Juan Guaido as interim president.
In the meantime, foreign ministers in the European Union have been unable to agree on a common stance on Venezuela, and that failure has further weakened Germany's position. Regardless, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas has continued to call on Maduro to "immediately change course" and "initiate a credible political process within the framework of the political constitution."
Maduro responded as everyone in Berlin ought to have expected: He refused to call a new election. The next scheduled presidential vote is not until in 2024, and the demands coming out of Europe do not appear to be of any great concern to his government.
Perhaps German officials had quietly speculated that international pressure on Maduro might grow so great that it would lead high-ranking military officials to defect, and Russia and China to eventually give up their support. But how likely was that, especially when dealing with a survival artist like Maduro? Germany's calculative attempts to checkmate him, which were not made from a strong position, proved unsuccessful.
What happens next?
Following Maduro's refusal to hold new presidential elections, Germany and many other EU states have now recognized opposition leader Guaido as interim president. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she expected Guaido to "initiate an election process as quickly as possible."
Germany is holding true to its word and the governmental attitude reflects as such. But the next move is now Venezuela's, and there is little to suggest that Caracas is preparing a satisfactory response. Maduro will maintain that he is the elected head of state and Guaido will emphasize that he regards himself as a legitimate interim president. It remains to be seen whether Guaido could ever usurp Maduro, who can rely on the state apparatus to organize presidential elections. And what will Germany's move be then?
The attitude of many of Guaido's supporters is that if toppling Maduro now isn't successful, it will never happen. The longer the game for power in Venezuela goes on, the more the chances of Maduro remaining head of state increase. Perhaps it's because he always thinks one move ahead of his opponents.
Venezuela on the brink
Venezuela is facing collapse amid multiple crises. DW takes a look at what has brought the oil-rich nation to its knees.
In March 2017, violent protests erupted across the country in response to a Supreme Court decision to strip the legislative branch of its powers. Amid an international outcry, President Nicolas Maduro reversed the decision, but it was too late. Thousands continued to take to the streets, calling for new elections. More than 100 people were killed in clashes with security forces.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/J. Barreto
Hunger, a growing problem
The violence added to the ongoing economic and political crisis in Venezuela. Many Venezuelans spend more than 30 hours a week waiting in lines to shop, and are often confronted with empty shelves when they finally enter a store. President Maduro blames the crisis on US price speculation. The opposition, however, accuses the Socialist government of economic mismanagement.
Image: picture-alliance/AA/C. Becerra
Health care in crisis
The crisis has even affected health care in the oil-rich nation. Venezuelans often head to Colombia to collect medical supplies to send home, as seen in this picture. Hospitals across Venezuela have compared conditions to those seen only in war zones. As patient deaths rise, health officials have sounded the alarm on the rise of malaria and dengue fever.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/M.Duenas Castaneda
Power grab
By July 2017, Venezuela's pro-government Constituent Assembly was established. For observers, it had all the hallmarks of a power grab. The new body adopted the authority to pass legislation on a range of issues, effectively taking away the powers of Venezuela's elected congress, which was under the opposition's control. The move drew wide international condemnation.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/P. Miraflores
The West sanctions
In response to the political crisis, the United States and European Union imposed a series of sanctions against ruling officials. The US blacklisted members of the Constituent Assembly and froze all of Maduro's assets that are subject to US jurisdiction. The EU banned arms sales to the country.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/AFP/T. Schwarz
Government victorious in regional elections
In October 2017, Venezuela held two votes: regional elections and elections for governors, which were long overdue. The opposition boycotted the vote, but then split, as some candidates and small parties chose to participate. This caused a deep rift within Maduro's opponents. The government went on to sweep the vote, which detractors say was unfair and heavily favored the regime.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/A. Cubillos
Debt default
In November 2017, the oil-rich, cash-poor nation faced its day of reckoning. Credit ratings agencies declared Venezuela and its state-run oil company in "selective default." But Russia offered to restructure the South American country's debt to ensure Caracas pays its other creditors. US and EU sanctions, however, limited the chance of an agreement.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/A. Cubillos
Presidential elections scheduled
The National Assembly announced in January 2018 that it would grant Maduro's call for snap presidential elections. The electoral authority, CNE, held the elections on May 20. The EU, the US and 14 Latin American nations warned that they would not recognize the results. The mainstream MUD opposition alliance boycotted the vote, leaving only one possible outcome.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/F. Parra
Maduro wins ...
Maduro was re-elected to a second six-year term with about 68 percent of the vote. Turnout was only 46 percent, according to electoral authorities. However, the MUD opposition alliance put turnout at less than 30 percent. The Organization of American States (OAS) called the elections neither free nor fair.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/A. Cubillos
... Guaido assumes power
But weeks into the new year, the situation took a drastic turn. On January 23, 2019, parliament president Juan Guaido declared himself interim president of Venezuela — a move that was quickly recognized by US President Donald Trump. Maduro called it a US-backed "coup." Days later, the US sanctioned Venezuela's state oil firm, while Guaido staked his claim on the country's foreign assets.
