If China doesn't face serious consequences for its assault on Hong Kong's civil liberties, a military attack on Taiwan is only a matter of time, says Alexander Görlach.
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China's National People's Congress is set to pass its proposed new "security law" this week, bypassing Hong Kong lawmakers and, as widely feared by the international community, effectively putting an end to the territory's autonomy.
The law would outlaw statements in favor of democracy, liberty and human rights, branding them acts of subversion or sedition that undermine China's national integrity.
Once again, China's autocrat Xi Jinping and his party leaders are violating Hong Kong's Basic Law, the mini-constitution, which was put in place when the territory was handed back to China from the UK in 1997.
Last year, Beijing attempted to have Hong Kong's extradition law amended to allow for people it found to be problematic to be tried in mainland China. But China does not respect the rule of law, and its push to see Hong Kong's extradition law modified served only one purpose: to crack down on dissidents and put them behind bars.
DW columnist Alexander GörlachImage: Harvard University/D. Elmes
Two million Hong Kongers took to the streets in peaceful protests against the planned amendment. After months of mass demonstrations, Carrie Lam — installed by Beijing as the territory's chief executive —finally caved in October 2019 and shelved the amendment. She paid a price for her reluctance to act, with Hong Kong's pro-democracy camp winning by a landslide in the November local elections, taking 17 of the territory's 18 district councils.
Beijing was furious, and with Hong Kong's legislative elections scheduled for next September, pro-Beijing lawmakers will most likely lose their seats as well. Hence the reason for the new bill, which will allow Beijing to entirely circumvent Hong Kong's parliament and give the authorities the power to arbitrarily arrest anyone it deems a "terrorist" — democratic leaders among them.
Beijing has already been flexing its muscles in an attempt to weaken the pro-democracy camp. In early April, leading Hong Kong pro-democracy activists were arrested to set a precedent. Anyone convicted by a court is prohibited from running for public office.
Is Taiwan next?
Unfortunately, Hong Kong is lost. But China must now be made to feel serious consequences for its actions. Otherwise, emboldened by its success, it will attempt to annex Taiwan. Taiwan is an independent country offshore the Chinese mainland and arose of out the Chinese Civil War, which ended in 1949. China's ruling Communist Party is hell-bent on crushing Taiwan's successful democracy, fearing it could inspire a pro-democracy movement at home.
The democratic international community must therefore impose sanctions on autocratic China, forcing it to stick to its promises. Germany should side with the United States and the United Kingdom, which have already made steps in this direction. Diplomatic ties with Taiwan must be strengthened, and assurances of military aid must be provided in case of a Chinese attack.
Xi Jinping must feel international pressure
Saint Augustine, the principal advocate of just war theory, said it is justifiable to come to the aid of a nation that is being invaded for no reason. Chinese President Xi Jinping has repeatedly threatened Taiwan with war and annexation. Now is the time to send a clear message: such behavior would be unacceptable and would see China excluded from the international community.
We must help Hong Kongers — the young and highly educated in particular, who have been labeled as "terrorists" by China for partaking in pro-democracy rallies — by allowing them to start a new life in the free world. We must, in other words, make it crystal clear to China that we are serious. We must take action, instead of turning a blind eye out of fear of economic repercussions.
Alexander Görlach is a senior fellow with the Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs and a senior research associate at the Religion & International Studies Institute at Cambridge University. He has also held a number of scholarly and advisory positions at Harvard University, National Taiwan University and the City University of Hong Kong. He holds doctorate degrees in comparative religion and linguistics.
China and Taiwan: Best enemies?
Chinese President Xi recently called for a "peaceful reunification" with Taiwan, prompting criticism from Taipei. What is the "Taiwan issue" all about? DW explores the history of the conflict through these photographs.
Image: AFP/AFP/Getty Images
Recapturing vs. liberation
After the end of WWII, the Communist Party of China (CPC) under Mao Zedong pursued a fierce battle against his archrival Chiang Kai-shek, chief of the Kuomintang (KMT) party. Chiang lost and took refuge in the island of Taiwan. For some time after that, Taiwan was the center of propaganda from both sides. The CPC wanted to "liberate" Taiwan, while Kuomintang wanted to "recapture the mainland."
Image: AFP/Getty Images
Letters to 'compatriots'
In the 1950s, the CPC published four "Messages to Chinese compatriots" in Taiwan, which are considered the basis of Beijing's Taiwan policy. In these texts, Beijing warned Taiwan of collaborating with US "imperialists." Military confrontation, particularly artillery attacks, also continued during this time.
Image: Imago/Zuma/Keystone
Beijing replaces Taipei in UN bodies
In 1971, the United Nations General Assembly declared that the People's Republic of China was the sole lawful representative of the country. With this decision, the Republic of China (ROC)/Taiwan was removed from all UN bodies. The frustration of ROC's foreign minister, Chow Shu-kai (right), and his ambassador Liu Chieh is easy to see in this picture.
Image: Imago/ZUMA/Keystone
New Taiwan policy
The fifth and last "message" from Beijing to Taiwan was published on January 1, 1979. The mainland, under the leadership of the reformist Deng Xiaoping ended military operations, announced the development of bilateral ties and promised peaceful reunification. However, Beijing's right to represent China internationally was not to be questioned.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/UPI
'One China' policy
The new orientation of China's Taiwan policy took place as Washington and Beijing got closer. On January 1, 1979, the US and China resumed diplomatic relations, with Washington under President Jimmy Carter recognizing Beijing as the sole legitimate government of the whole of China. The US embassy in Taiwan was remodeled into an institute for culture.
Image: AFP/AFP/Getty Images
'One China, two systems'
Even before meeting US President Carter, Deng Xiaoping had introduced the principle of "one country, two systems," which allowed Taiwan to maintain its social systems even after reunification. However, Taiwan's President Chiang Ching-Kuo did not immediately fall for it. On the contrary, in 1987 he formulated the principle of "one China for the better system."
Image: picture-alliance/Everett Collection
The independence movement
In 1986, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Taiwan's first opposition party, was founded. At a meeting in 1991, the DPP declared a clause for Taiwan's independence, which stipulated that Taiwan was sovereign and not a part of China.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/S. Yeh
'Consensus of 1992'
In unofficial Hong Kong talks in 1992, representatives of Taipei and Beijing reached a political agreement on the nature of their relationship. Both parties agreed that there was only one China. However, they had different views on what "One China" meant. A year later, the chief negotiators Wang (left) and Koo met in Singapore.
Image: Imago/Xinhua
Bilateral relations
In an interview with DW in 1995, the first democratically elected President of Taiwan and the KMT leader Lee Teng-hui said that all relations beyond the straits of Taiwan would be "defined as relations between states; at the very least, as a relationship of a special kind between states." His formulation was very close to being a declaration of independence.
Image: Academia Historica Taiwan
'A state on every side'
The DPP won the presidential election for the first time in 2000 with Chen Shui-bian, a Taiwanese-born politician who had no connections to mainland China, calling for "a state on each side." It meant that Taiwan should have nothing to do with China anymore. In 2005, Beijing reacted with the Anti-Secession Law, which allowed the use of military force in the event that Taiwan declared independence.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo/Jerome Favre
'One China, different interpretations'
After losing the elections in 2000, the KMT adopted a changed formulation of the "Consensus of 1992" in the party's statute, which called for "one China, different interpretations." That is why the 1992 Consensus is still debated in Taiwan. The reason: the negotiators of 1992 did not have an official position.
Image: Imago/ZumaPress
CPC meets KMT
The mainland adopted the "Consensus of 1992" as a political basis for creating a relationship with Taiwan. In the first summit between the two sides since the communists came to power in China, Hu Jintao (right) and Lian Zhan endorsed the "Consensus of 1992" and the "One China" principle.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/M. Reynolds
'The direction is correct'
After KMT's Ma Ying-Jeou won the 2008 presidential elections, both sides continued to come closer. In an interview with DW in 2009, Ma said: "The straits of Taiwan should be a place of peace and security. We have come a lot closer to this goal. Basically our direction is correct."
Image: GIO
Quo vadis?
After the elections in 2016, when President Tsai Ing-wen came to power, the independence movement gained a lot of wind. Tsai disputed the existence of the 1992 consensus and described the "attempt of China to interfere in the political and social development of Taiwan" as the "biggest challenge."
Image: ROC
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A previous version of this article included a inaccurate statement due to translation from the original German text. This has now been clarified. The department apologizes for the error.
