The protests in Iran are the result of an accumulation of unsolved problems. No matter what happens next, resentment in Iran is on the rise — people want to see change, says Mostafa Malekan.*
Advertisement
Image: picture-alliance/AA/Stringer
For the past two years at least, many an expert in Iran has warned that an accumulation of economic, social and political problems could lead to an uprising.
Four decades of the "Islamic Republic" have left their mark. More than 40 percent of the roughly 80 million inhabitants live below the relative poverty line, in some rural areas, the figure is even higher, at 60 to 70 percent; at least 11 million people live in slums around the major cities and at least one out of four young people between the ages of 15 and 24 are unemployed.
Wealth seeps away
Paradoxically, Iran is by all accounts a prosperous country. Oil exports netted Iran almost $700 billion (583 billion euros) during President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's eight years in office, from 2005 to 2013. But the money wasn't used to fight poverty or unemployment. A large part was invested in religious and ideological institutions close to the state and supportive of the system. Huge amounts were poured into the nuclear and missile programs. Billions of dollars were spent on backing Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Shiite popular mobilization forces in Iraq and the Houthi Shiite rebels in Yemen.
At the same time, tens of thousands of development projects in Iran have foundered for lack of funds. If only a small percentage of these international financial resources had been used for such projects, many young Iranians looking for work today would have jobs.
Rouhani disappoints
During the 2013 presidential election campaign, at the height of the nuclear crisis, Hassan Rouhani said the centrifuges had to turn, but so did the "wheels of life." He pledged he would solve the nuclear crisis with the West and people's everyday problems.
Iran protests born in economic uncertainty
01:42
This browser does not support the video element.
Rouhani managed to find a sensible solution for the nuclear crisis. But any improvement of the people's existential and economic problems is barely discernible. The reasons are manifold: Iran's eminently inefficient state economy, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's lack of support for the nuclear deal, the victory of Donald Trump in the US, Europe's hesitant cooperation with Iran and growing regional tensions — in particular with Saudi Arabia — have aggravated the situation. Rouhani has not kept his promises.
The current protests may have been ignited by economic demands but they have quickly turned political. At first, people protested against price hikes and the Rouhani government. Quickly, however, it was all about the system. The people have completely lost confidence in the state institutions. That is why the protests, which eventually led to violent clashes, spread so rapidly.
The protests were caused by a combination of poverty and unemployment on the one hand and a lack of trust in the government and its institutions on the other hand. However, so far the demonstrations are being carried by Iran's poor urban population. Politically and culturally influential dissidents haven't yet taken part.
The government can use violence to squash the protests, at least as long as no other sections of a dissatisfied Iranian society take to the streets. That might lead to a short-term increase of power for military circles and conservative hardliners.
But it won't change the fact that people's frustrations will continue to grow and that those who demand change grow stronger by the day.
Eleven days in February: The Iranian Revolution
In February, 1979, Shah Reza Pahlavi was overthrown. The Iranian Revolution turned the country's monarchy into an Islamic theocracy. DW presents the climax of the Islamic revolution in pictures.
Image: akairan.com
Return to Iran
February 1, 1979: Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini returned to Tehran from exile in Paris. Euphoric Iranians greeted him at the airport as he touched down. For years, he had criticized the shah and the political elite in Iran for suppressing dissidents, for westernizing the country and for their extravagant lifestyles.
Image: akairan.com
Waiting and hoping
Around four million Iranians took to the streets to catch a glimpse of Khomeini’s motorcade as it headed to the central cemetery where he held his arrival speech. For around a year mass demonstrations against the Shah had been taking place. Since August 1978, widespread work stoppages by the opposition had crippled the country’s economy.
Image: Getty Images/Afp/Gabriel Duval
The Shah steps down
On January 16, 1979, Shah Reza Pahlavi left the country. At the Guadeloupe conference, attended by the leaders of four Western powers - the US, UK, France and West Germany - the shah lost support. Instead, the West talked of seeking dialogue with Khomeini. US President Jimmy Carter offered the shah asylum in the US - an offer he accepted.
Image: fanous.com
An isolated leader
The shah had previously appointed Shapour Bakhtiar, a leading member of the opposition National Front, to the position of interim prime minister to appease his opponents, but without success. Bakhtiar was expelled from the party for being appointed by the shah. Other party members had agreed to work only with Khomeini.
Image: akairan.com
Campaign speech at the central cemetery
Khomeini declared on his arrival in Tehran that he did not recognize Bakhtiar’s government. From the airport he drove straight to Tehran’s central cemetery where he gave a gutsy speech before thousands of enthusiastic on-lookers. He disputed the monarchy and the parliament, saying it weakened legitimacy. Khomeini said that he alone would select Iran’s new government.
Image: atraknews.com
Riots across the country
In Tehran and in other cities across the country violent clashes between revolutionaries and the shah’s supporters broke out. The street fighting went on for days and it was unclear which side had the upper hand. The military imposed a curfew, but most Iranian’s ignored it.
Image: akairan.com
Transitional prime minister
On February 5, 1979, Khomeini named Mehdi Bazargan from the National Front as the country’s transitional prime minister. At first it looked like the clergy would cooperate with the liberal opposition. However, disagreements between the two quickly escalated. Bazargan resigned on November 5, 1979, in response to the US embassy hostage situation in Tehran.
Image: akairan.com
The nation celebrates
After Bazargan’s re-appointment, large numbers of Iranians took to the streets in support of the transitional government. The military declared it would not interfere with the power struggle. Shapour Bakhtiar had lost all support. He had to flee his home when armed Khomeini supporters intruded. In April, 1979, he went into exile in France.
Image: akairan.com
Military greetings
Standing at attention for religious leaders: An elite unit of the Iranian Air Force greeted Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. The Homafar unit played a major role in the revolution victory because they had allowed the public access to their arsenal during the civil unrest. On February 9, the Imperial Guard made a last ditch effort to attack the Homafar base.
Image: Mehr
The monarchy is overthrown
Fighting between the Imperial Guard and the people intensified. On February 11, 1979, the regime collapsed: Revolutionaries occupied parliament, the Senate, the television broadcaster and other state-run institutions. Shortly thereafter, the fall of the monarchy was announced. To this day, Iranians celebrate February 11 as the anniversary of the 'Islamic revolution.’
Image: akairan.com
10 images1 | 10
*The author is writing under a pseudonym to protect his identity.
