Is this really the death knell for Germany's venerable Social Democrats? For the first time, the party is even less popular than the right-wing AfD. Germany's party landscape is shifting dramatically, says Felix Steiner.
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Image: picture-alliance/Zuma Press/O. Messinger
Journalists and Social Democratic Party (SPD) members have affectionately referred to the SPD as the "old aunt" for decades. The nickname has never been as apt as it is today. Old aunts are sweet and have are full of anecdotes about the past. You can sit down and enjoy a glass of Sherry or a piece of apple pie with them. But beyond that? No one really takes them seriously because they don't seem to have kept up with the times. Then, at some point, they are gone.
Tradition and past accomplishments are of little use in the cut-throat business of politics. Parties and candidates are elected because voters expect them to deliver on future challenges. Because they offer clear goals and leadership. And because they understand voters' concerns. The SPD, however, has been unable to do any of that for years.
The danger of ignoring voters' concerns
DW's Felix Steiner
Just one example: polls leave no doubt that the issues of immigration and refugees clearly dominate voters' sentiments in Germany. Beyond that, the SPD's core clientele, which does not consist of the country's wealthiest citizens, is also concerned about affordable housing, something that is in short supply, especially in larger cities.
But instead of focusing on an issue that should be close to its heart, the SPD makes the issue of family reunification for immigrants and refugees its top priority in coalition negotiations with Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU). It shouldn't come as a surprise that the SPD's demise is happening at the same time the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) is steadily gaining in popularity — often in voting districts in which the SPD had been extremely strong in the past.
That trend is, of course, subject to further change. No one knows about the volatility of weekly polls better than the SPD itself — it was, after all, just a year ago that chancellor candidate Martin Schulz was hyped as the man who would save the party.
New elections would be an absolute disaster for the SPD. That should be crystal clear to those who are currently trying to drum up support among the party base to vote against participating in a coalition with the CDU/CSU, and who proclaim that renewal can only come if the SPD takes on the role of parliament's largest opposition party.
The concept is utter nonsense. The CDU and CSU are currently proving the point. No one there has any intention of forfeiting the chancellorship, although they are cognizant of the fact that blindly continuing with more of the same is not enough to garner Chancellor Merkel a sufficient ruling majority.
SPD coalition vote divides family
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Renewal in government possible
New elections would benefit only the AfD, whose leadership has said it has no desire to govern. And that is exactly what makes recent polls so shocking: fresh elections would mean dramatic losses for the SPD and no gains for the Union parties — polls also indicate that the three parties would not even gain enough votes to make a grand coalition possible.
Just picture the irony: A country with massive wealth and a booming economy is incapable of putting together a ruling majority to form a government.
If SPD party members were to vote against a coalition government it would be akin to committing suicide for fear of dying. It's time for the SPD to show some courage and self-confidence and pride in what it's achieved. There's enough evidence of what it's capable of doing in many cities and states around the country. And it should stand by its accomplishments — voters will honor the party for it.
The SPD committed a similarly grave mistake in the spring of 1990, when it refused to allow individuals from former East Germany's Socialist Unity Party (SED) to join the SPD after the fall of the Berlin Wall. The result was the formation of the Left Party and the loss of more than 10 percent of the SPD's voters, which haunts the party to this day. The SPD cannot afford to repeat that kind of mistake. That would truly be the death of the "old aunt."
The SPD's year of turmoil
From neck-and-neck with Merkel's CDU to worst post-war performance, the SPD has witnessed its support nosedive. As members vote on whether to join a Merkel-led government, Germany's oldest party stands at a crossroads.
Image: Getty Images/M. Hitij
January 2017: 'Schulz effect' sees the SPD flying in the polls
The SPD appeared to have struck gold when it nominated Martin Schulz, the former president of the European Parliament, to challenge Angela Merkel for chancellor in the 2017 elections. In what came to be dubbed as the "Schulz effect," the SPD's shake-up at the top saw the party surge in the opinion polls to up to 33 percent, neck-and-neck with Merkel's conservatives.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/K. Nietfeld
May 2017: SPD loses two state elections in a week. First Schleswig-Holstein ...
By May, however, the Schulz effect had faded. If the SPD wanted to prove it was a serious contender for September's federal election, it needed to retain its place at the helm of two key state governments. The first state election in Schleswig-Holstein, however, saw the CDU record an "easy" victory, winning by five points. The CDU went on to form a coalition with the Greens and Free Democrats.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/B. Marks
... Then its NRW stronghold
Things went from bad to worse a week later, when Merkel's party defeated the SPD in their stronghold in North Rhine-Westphalia. The SPD had ruled NRW for 46 of the past 51 years. However, it only picked up 31 percent of the vote this time, seven points lower than in 2012. Schulz described the defeat as "crushing," while outgoing state premier Hannelore Kraft resigned as state SPD party chief.
Image: Imago/DeFodi
September 2017: Lackluster election debate
Come September, with the federal election just weeks away, some pundits still gave Schulz half a chance of clinching the chancellery. However, the televised election debate between the two candidates exposed the effects of a grand coaltion. The two leaders seemed happy to agree with the other's proposals, rather than have a debate. And yet viewers still saw Merkel as the more credible candidate.
Image: Reuters/F. Bensch
September 2017: Germany decides — SPD suffers worst result in post-war era
In its worst election showing since World War II, the SPD scraped just over 20 percent of the vote. It would claim just 40 seats in the Bundestag, 40 fewer than before. Schulz, however, vowed to stay on and lead the party in opposition. The move was widely welcomed by the party's rank and file. It was time for a much-needed recharge and reappraisal.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/R. Weihrauch
December 2017: GroKo after all
After talks to form a coalition with the Greens and FDP collapsed in November, Merkel had no choice but to turn to Schulz to form a governing coalition. After much "umming" and "ahing," the SPD leadership decided to enter preliminary talks with the conservatives. Well aware that the move would be unpopular with many in the party, Schulz said the party's 460,000 would get the final say.
Image: picture alliance/Photoshot/S. Yuqi
January 2018: SPD balks at grand coalition blueprint
However, no sooner had Schulz agreed on a preliminary deal then senior figures in SPD demanded an extensive overhaul. Schulz's failure to prevent a migration cap, establish a "citizens' insurance" scheme and abolish fixed employee contracts raised serious doubts whether party officials would agree to proceed to formal talks.
Image: Reuters/H. Hanschke
January 2018: The start of a revolt?
Ahead of a party conference that would see SPD members vote on the preliminary coalition plan, the movement against another grand coalition began to gather heavy steam. The face of this grassroots revolt was SPD youth wing head Kevin Kühnert. In a series of impassioned speeches, the 28-year-old didn't just win the backing of youngsters, but convinced several senior figures as well.
Image: Imago/R. Zensen
January 2018: Delegates approve preliminary coalition deal
Despite the heavy backlash, SPD delegates still approved the coalition deal. Of the votes, 362 were in favor of talks compared with 279 against. In a bid to shore up support, then-party leader Schulz said there would be "tough negotiations" with Merkel's conservatives. But that didn't stop critics from accusing Schulz of making concessions to Merkel.
Image: Reuters/W. Rattay
February 2018: SPD takes finance ministry
After the announcement of a coalition agreement, media reports claimed that the finance ministry had been given to the SPD, marking what some consider a major victory for the center-left party. The SPD's Olaf Scholz, the popular mayor of Hamburg, was reportedly tapped to head the ministry. If it proves true, it will be the first time in almost nine years that the SPD controls it.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/C. Charisius
February 2018: Spat with Gabriel
In early February, tensions inside the SPD reached a fever-pitch. Gabriel told German media that Schulz didn't appreciate the job he had done as foreign minister. Days before, Schulz had signaled his desire to lead the foreign ministry. "The only thing left is remorse over how disrespectful we've become with one another in our dealings and how little someone's word still country," Gabriel said.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/B.v.Jutrczenka
February 2018: Schulz out, Nahles to take over?
Former Labor Minister Andrea Nahles is a strong contender to head the center-left party. She made a name for herself as the leader of the SPD's youth branch. However, her impassioned defense of joining a Merkel-led coalition in January was seen as the key to clinching a majority to move forward on formal talks. But she'll have to wait until April 22, when the SPD will choose its next leader.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/O. Berg
February 2018: Plummeting poll numbers
If anything, the decision to pursue a Merkel-lead coalition has further dragged support for the party. A poll published in February showed the party at 16 percent if elections were held on February 18, a 2-percent drop from the previous poll a month before. Polls now show the SPD neck-and-neck with the far-right AFD.
Image: picture-alliance/Zuma Press/O. Messinger
February 2018: Members vote
SPD members – all 463,723 of them – will now vote on whether the party can join a coalition with the CDU and CSU. The members have until March 2 to submit their ballots with results expected shortly after the due date. Until then, Germany waits on the prospect of a new government.
