Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has given the EU extensive conditions if Iran is to stick to the nuclear deal. Yet he is nothing more than a squeaking mouse, writes Jamshid Barzegar.
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The only memorable line from the recent statement by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is a reference to the classic American cartoon duo: "Like the famous cat in 'Tom and Jerry,' the US will lose again. We don't doubt for a second that the enemy will be defeated, and those who trust in the teachings of Islam know this."
It is not the first time Khamenei has used the 78-year-old American cartoon series to illustrate America's apparent weaknesses. Tom is the cat who never manages to capture the mouse, Jerry, despite how hard he tries.
"When you look at America, you can only think about the cat, Tom," he said during a meeting seven years ago with then President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. "A lot of action, noise and fuss, but the result always falls well short of their and their spectators' expectations. It really does depend on how clever you are."
Indeed, wit and cunning have allowed Iran to get around sanctionsfor so long. Crooked international oil, commodities and financial operations have led to unprecedented corruption in the Iranian economy. In fact, these "extortionate sanctions" have compelled Iran to declare an end to its nuclear program, or at least submit to strict oversight.
Khamenei's recent reference to "Tom and Jerry" to foretell America's "defeat" need not be taken seriously. Even his rejection of further negotiations with the European Union, which is how his "seven conditions" for staying in the nuclear deal must be seen, have no practical consequences. To the contrary, Iran's negotiators will do everything to secure from the EU at least basic assurances.
Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat
A year after Donald Trump pulled the US from the international nuclear accord with Iran, the Middle East nation announced it would no longer adhere to some "voluntary commitments" in the accord.
Image: picture-alliance/epa/D. Calma
The deal breaker
President Donald Trump announced on May 8, 2018 that he was pulling the United States out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, arguing that the international accord was not in America's "national interest." The decision threw a cloud of uncertainty over the future of the nuclear accord and raised tensions with US allies in Europe.
Image: Reuters/J. Ernst
Slap in the face
Britain, France and Germany lobbied the Trump administration and Congress to remain in the nuclear accord, arguing that the deal was working and a US violation without a follow up plan would be destabilizing. In European capitals, the Trump administration's withdrawal was viewed as a slap in the face of allies.
Image: Reuters/K. Lamarque
Iran scrap 'voluntary commitments'
A year to the day after Trump's announcement, Iran informed the other signatories of the accord that they would no longer adhere to certain "voluntary commitments." Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said the signatory nations had 60 days to implement promises to protect Iran's oil and banking sectors or Iran would resume the enrichment of uranium.
The decision came after the United States deployed an aircraft, the USS Lincoln, along with a bomber task force to the Middle East. Washington said the deployment was intended as a "clear unmistakable message." Iran said it took action because the European Union and others "did not have the power to resist US pressure."
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A triumph of diplomacy
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), better known as the Iran nuclear deal, was signed in 2015 by United States, China, Russia, France, Germany and Britain (P5+1) and Iran following years of negotiations. Under the international agreement, Iran agreed to dismantle its nuclear program and be subject to monitoring in exchange for the lifting of international nuclear related sanctions.
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Compliance and verification
The JCPOA includes a robust monitoring, verification and inspection regime carried out by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The UN watch dog has verified Iran's compliance with the deal in 12 quarterly reports. The JCPOA allows Iran to pursue a peaceful nuclear program for commercial, medical and industrial purposes in line with international non-proliferation standards.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/R. Schlager
Obama's achievement
The Iran nuclear deal was President Barack Obama's signature foreign policy achievement. Seeking to undo nearly every Obama administration legacy, Trump came into office calling it the "worst deal ever." The Trump administration argues the nuclear deal doesn't address other unrelated issues such as Iran's ballistic missiles, regional influence, support for "terrorist" groups and human rights.
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Iranians approved
The nuclear deal and lifting of punishing nuclear related international sanctions created optimism in Iran after years of economic isolation. However, even before Trump pulled the US out of the deal, Tehran blamed the US for holding back international investment and not fulfilling its end of the bargain due to the uncertainty created by Trump's threats.
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The opponents
After eight years with Barack Obama, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu found the US president he wanted in Donald Trump. The Israeli leader repeatedly slammed the deal despite his own military and intelligence chiefs' assessment the that JCPOA, while not perfect, was working and should be maintained. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the other main opponents of the nuclear deal.
Image: Reuters/R. Zvulun
Who's left?
The EU-3 (Britain, France, Germany) have scrambled to ensure that Iran receives the economic benefits it was promised in order to avoid Tehran pulling out of the deal. As EU businesses face retaliation from the US for doing business with Iran, many are opting to avoid Iran. This would likely be a present to Chinese and Russian businesses.
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Iran's weak position
Given its difficulties at home, Iran is not in a position to refuse an offer and threaten to resume uranium enrichment. Regardless of how clearly Khamenei speaks, his conditions will still ring hollow.
All that his proclamation has succeeded in doing is make life difficult for people like Federica Mogherini, the EU foreign affairs commissioner, and easier for people like US President Donald Trump. Presumably, Khamenei will soon make another address to announce a way out of this situation, in which he will say how it is sometimes smarter to give in so as to appear triumphant in the end.
Iran's leadership will not find the necessary inspiration in "Tom and Jerry." If it, like the supreme leader, does want to stick to a story about a cat, then I recommend "Mouse and Cat"by the medieval Persian poet, Ubayd Zakani. In the story, mice heroically revolt against a cat, but are ultimately eaten by it.
