Can further escalation be prevented? Is there a possibility of open warfare between Russia and Ukraine? Whoever wants to evaluate Angela Merkel's Kyiv visit needs to consider the dramatic situation that Ukraine currently finds itself in. The fighting in the country's east is already claiming lives on a daily basis, and the situation would only get worse if the Ukrainian army stormed the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk or if Russia became militarily involved.

Merkel's decision to travel to Kyiv in this turbulent period sent a strong message to all parties involved in the conflict. Through her visit, one day before the anniversary of Ukraine's independence from the Soviet Union, the German Chancellor made it clear that Ukraine's sovereignty and right to self-determination need to be respected - by Russia too.

Merkel is striving for a political solution. She and her host, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, agreed that the latest diplomatic efforts to pacify the conflict may not be abandoned.

Agreement between Merkel and Poroshenko

The chancellor demonstratively offered support to Poroshenko. She promised significant financial backing, especially for restoring infrastructure in eastern Ukraine and providing aid to the refugees. Poroshenko referred to this as the Merkel Plan - a play on the famous Marshall Plan for rebuilding European economies after World War II. And while this comparison may seem exaggerated, it shows what a serious situation the Ukrainian president considers his country to be in.

Both Merkel and Poroshenko know that the conflict cannot be solved through military force alone - political concepts are needed. The Ukrainian president aims to hold on to his peace plan for eastern Ukraine, which includes decentralization measures for various regions. But just like Merkel, he is aware that these plans can only be realized if Russia contributes to restoring peace.

Hopes pinned on Russia

This especially applies to the hoped-for ceasefire, which can only occur if no weapons or militants are supplied to Ukraine by Russia. This is how Russia has been contributing to the war in eastern Ukraine so far. At the same time, the Kremlin has been thwarting all international negotiation attempts with various provocations - most recently with a disputed aid convoy that entered Ukraine without the permission of the government in Kyiv one day before Merkel's visit.

Merkel had protested against the convoy entering against Kyiv's will - she even telephoned Russian President Vladimir Putin about it personally. Now, during her visit to the Ukrainian capital, she demonstratively reaffirmed Ukraine's unity and sovereignty, making a strong statement exactly 75 years after the signing of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact in Moscow, which saw Stalin and Hitler redraw the borders of Eastern Europe.

In a few days' time, a meeting between Poroshenko and Putin in Minsk, Belarus, will reveal whether a mitigation of the conflict is possible. Merkel will not be present there, but through her visit to Kyiv she has already conveyed to Putin that European borders need to be respected and that diplomacy is the only key to peace in eastern Ukraine.