German Chancellor Angela Merkel's emphasis on the importance of dialogue during her Friday press conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin was conspicuous. She repeatedly used phrases like "speaking with one another" or "keeping channels of communication open" and noted that not speaking with one another was not an option.
One got the impression that she was attempting to explain, even justify, why in the last weeks of her chancellorship (and at a time when her Christian Democratic Union [CDU] party could desperately use her on the campaign trail) she had spent an entire work day flying to Moscow to conduct — and this would become glaringly evident at the press conference — fruitless talks with the Russian president.
Macron and Draghi called, Merkel came in person
Sure, quiet agreements may have been reached in closed-door talks about Afghanistan. Russia has good relations with the Taliban and a fully intact embassy in Kabul. That could be helpful to Germany and the EU when it comes to diplomatic and logistical assistance evacuating local staff. But it is also something she could have dealt with on the phone, like French President Emanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, both of whom called Putin the day before Merkel traveled to Moscow.
Moreover, Afghanistan was put on the agenda after the fact. There were a host of other issues on the table when Merkel's trip was originally planned and announced: The conflict in eastern Ukraine, the situation in Belarus and continued gas transit through Ukraine after the completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline — that last issue, according to Berlin, was especially important to the chancellor. Merkel will in fact follow up her Friday trip to Moscow with a visit to Kyiv on Sunday (August 22).
No progress on key issues
But no progress was announced on any of those points at Friday's press conference. Quite the opposite: One got the impression that Putin's attitude had become even more unyielding and that he is less interested in foreign policy compromise than ruthlessly pushing through his agenda, as he does at home.
Thus, it seems Angela Merkel got nothing from Putin that might help her in follow-up talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Instead, Putin, ever the sly tactician, actually managed to weaken her position in Kyiv by publicly asking her to pressure Ukrainian leadership over the Minsk peace agreement for eastern Ukraine. In doing so, he neatly made it appear as if she were some kind of advocate for Russian interests.
Big setback to gas transit through Ukraine
Merkel was also forced to accept an especially harsh setback regarding the continuation of Russian gas transports through Ukraine — an issue she discussed with US President Joe Biden at length when she visited Washington in July. The continuation of transit through Ukraine is designed to mollify Ukrainian, US and Eastern European opposition to the Russian-German Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. If Russia were to continue to pump gas to the EU via neighboring Ukraine, it would not only provide Kyiv with much-needed income, it would also work as a type of insurance against Russian aggression.
But Putin outfoxed the chancellor here too, cleverly turning the tables. Although he pledged to uphold Russian contract obligations through the end of 2024, he said after that deliveries through Ukraine would directly depend on how much Russian gas "our European partners" want to buy. With that, the Kremlin strongman demonstratively tossed the fate of Ukrainian transit into the EU's lap — essentially telling the bloc that the more it bought from Gazprom, and therewith slowed its shift from fossil fuels, the more chance Ukraine would have to deliver gas to the Continent. Nevertheless, the more modern Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline will remain the primary mode of delivery for Russian gas simply because, as President Putin emphasized, it is much more environmentally friendly than the Ukrainian pipeline network.
Germany needs a new approach to Russia policy
Unsurprisingly, the trip did little to change the fate of imprisoned Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny. Merkel once again called for his release, Putin once again labeled him a criminal and refused to call him by his name. One could say both sides are maintaining dialogue. At least the UK and US marked the anniversary of Navalny's poisoning with further sanctions against seven Russian intelligence agents involved in the incident — the chancellor had nothing of the sort in her bag when she arrived in Moscow.
Despite the flowers and the flowery language showered upon Merkel during her visit and the pomp with which Putin jazzed up her farewell visit, her trip has made it crystal clear that the Kremlin autocrat is becoming less and less interested in what Germany wants or needs. Thus, Merkel's trip likely marks the end of a political era defined by the mantra "maintain dialogue with Russia." The status quo simply won't work anymore. Germany needs a new concept for its Russia policy — one that should put attaining realistic goals before talk.
This article was translated from German.