There was never any doubt about the outcome of the election in Nicaragua. With all the opposition candidates behind bars, a few unknowns running as token candidates, and a Supreme Electoral Council that is close to the presidential couple, the script for this farce was written a while ago, leading up to an overwhelming victory for the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) and its party leader, President Daniel Ortega and his wife, Vice President Rosario Murillo.
Angry analyses and commentaries in the international press followed the grotesque announcement of victory that ended the tragicomedy — independent domestic media are virtually non-existent. The voices from abroad condemn the election and issue stark warnings about its consequences, but they will fade away once it is nudged out of the headlines by other news.
Nothing to lose, nothing to fear
Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo don't care what the international community thinks of them. The couple has already secured a place in the history books — they are the ones who buried democracy in Nicaragua, putting the country on par with Cuba, Venezuela and North Korea. With regard to their long-gone international reputation, Ortega and Murillo have nothing left to lose, nor much to fear.
The deeply divided members of the Organization of American States (OAS) only just managed to agree on a lukewarm statement denouncing irregularities and even calling the election process a farce. The European Union did the same — but from a Latin American perspective, the EU calling the elections a sham and threatening tougher sanctions amounts to no more than muttering from afar. Even the tough Renacer Act sanctions the United States plans to use to put pressure on the Ortega and Murillo regime does not endanger their hold on power.
None of these threats will have an effect on the Nicaraguan dictators. In the case of their like-minded counterparts in North Korea, Venezuela and Cuba, similar steps have done nothing more than hurt the general public.
Somoza supporters now follow Ortega
Nothing lasts forever in this world, and even Ortega (who turns 76 this week) and Murillo will eventually die. But nothing is likely to change in this country anytime soon. Nicaragua is a country in disarray, a nation where yesterday's revolutionaries are today's dictators, where former dictator Anastasio Somoza's supporters, who later turned into Contra rebels, are today Ortega's henchmen. Nicaragua will continue to produce the likes of Ortega and Murillo —perhaps not as dazzling, but distinctive nonetheless. It will be very difficult to stop them.
Nicaragua has long given up its resistance to autocrats. About 100,000 people have left the small country in recent years, including many intellectuals and journalists who are trying to lead the battle from abroad. They are not making much of an impact. Repression silenced the student movement three years ago. The streets of Managua have not seen demonstrations in a long time.
A poor country is about to get poorer
That leaves about six and a half million Nicaraguans, more than half of whom live below the poverty line, trying to survive as best they can. Nicaragua, one of the poorest countries in Latin America, could soon become even poorer. The consequences are familiar: more unemployment, more emigration, more crime, more fear, more hatred, more dread.
Under Ortega, once a freely elected president and now a dictator, Nicaragua's future, the future of all of Central America, has become grayer and gloomier.
This article has been translated from German.