American Presidents become solemn when they announce new wars or military conflicts. They explain why the fight is necessary, how they will win in the end, and why America must lead. President Obama also followed this pattern in his speech from the White House. He described the crimes of the “Islamic State,” (IS). He outlined his plan to defeat the Islamists with help from the Iraqis, Kurds, the Free Syrian Army as well and numerous allies. He became emotional when explaining why only America is capable of leading a coalition against IS.

It was a good, clear speech: Obama made it clear what differentiated this action against the Islamic State from the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq: No American combat troops will be deployed. However, he compared the upcoming “destruction” of IS with US actions in Yemen and Somalia. In Somalia, chaos still reigns. In Yemen, the North and the South continue to make war on each other, al Qaeda groups are finding shelter there, in a land without a functioning government. If a victory over IS – however we define it—takes the shape of a second Somalia or Yemen, it would be a disaster.

To be sure, Obama mentioned the risks inherent in a fight against the "Islamic State." But only on the periphery. Because the hastily-assembled coalition against the terrorists is anything but stable.

Iraq admittedly has a new government, as the US President pointed out. Yet the antagonism between Shiites and Sunnis runs deep and the Iraqi government still does not have a defense minister. The Kurds are currently cooperating with Bagdhad, but ultimately they desire their independence and their own country.

Obama painted a flattering picture of the training of the Free Syrian Army in Saudi Arabia. But who knows at this point whether these fighters can actually survive on the battlefield against the fanatical IS troops, who are largely composed of professional Iraqi soldiers. Obama would not be the first American president to go to war with much optimism and later have things turn out much differently than hoped for.

His words would indeed have more weight, if Congress were to support him in the coming days and approve funding for the upcoming struggle with the Islamists. Then it would be not only the hopes of an American president. It would be the prospect of an actual US strategy, borne by the entire political elite of the country.