"Islamic State" has been defeated in Syria, if US President Donald Trump is to be believed. But withdrawing troops is a mistake with far-reaching consequences that will play into the wrong hands, writes DW's Udo Bauer.
Advertisement
Image: Getty Images/J. Swensen
Plaudits from his supporters are guaranteed. "It's time to bring our great young people home!" US President Donald Trump tweeted. The mission to defeat the so-called Islamic State (IS) is a fait accompli, according to Trump.
This is a message that will go down well with many Americans just before Christmas — but not in Washington with the politicians responsible for foreign and security policy.
Even Trump's fellow Republicans are aghast at the single-handed decision by their president.
While they recognize that, as a force, the IS terrorist militia was crushed during the civil war, many jihadis still lurk in the shadows waiting to seize upon a chance to regroup. For IS, a power vacuum in the wake of a US withdrawal is a prime opportunity.
Betraying the Kurds
The 2,000 GIs have done a decent job in Syria over the past four years. Not so much as soldiers of war, but above all as mentors to the YPG Kurdish militia. Their fighters are regarded as the bravest in the battle against IS. They played a decisive role in pushing the terrorists back militarily.
This cooperation has always been a thorn in the side of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who views the YPG as nothing more than a band of terrorists that must be destroyed. But as long as the Americans were in Syria, he didn't dare attack the Kurds.
If the last remaining US soldiers are indeed to be withdrawn, Erdogan's gloves will be off and he will take brutal action against the Kurds. The Americans will bear responsibility and Kurdish blood will be on their hands.
Russia can rejoice
The amount of anti-American propaganda circulating around the other dominant player in Syria is markedly on the rise. Russia's Foreign Ministry described the US presence as a "dangerous obstacle on the road to a peaceful solution."
A Russian peace settlement, that is: one that foresees Syrian dictator Assad remaining in power! The man who bears prime responsibility for the destruction of his country, for the death of tens of thousands of civilians, for poison gas attacks and barrel bombs.
Assad is Russia's only safe bet on maintaining a military, and thus political, presence in the Middle East. If the US withdraws now, Putin will have free rein to shape the postwar order as he sees fit.
Russia, Iran and Turkey are currently negotiating a peace settlement with representatives of the Assad regime and the insurgents. A constitutional convention to organize elections is in the offing. It is an arrangement that in reality seems naive; Assad is, of course, not interested in free elections and will fight the prospect tooth and nail.
But Russia is far from naive. There ought to be no doubt that Putin is pulling strings in the background, and playing the conflicting parties off against each other at will.
The sudden withdrawal needlessly denies the US the possibility of having a say in the rebuilding of postwar Syria. Trump has shown the world that he has lost interest in the Middle East as a whole.
Who's fighting in the Syria conflict?
Syria's civil war erupted out of the Arab Spring protests that swept much of the Middle East and North Africa in 2011. The conflict has since drawn in multiple warring factions from around the world.
Image: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images
War with no end
Syria has been engulfed in a devastating civil war since 2011 after Syrian President Bashar Assad lost control over large parts of the country to multiple revolutionary groups. The conflict has since drawn in foreign powers and brought misery and death to Syrians.
Image: picture alliance/abaca/A. Al-Bushy
The dictator
Syria's army, officially known as the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), is loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and is fighting to restore the president's rule over the entire country. The SAA has been fighting alongside a number of pro-Assad militias such as the National Defense Force and has cooperated with military advisors from Russia and Iran, which back Assad.
Turkey, which is also part of the US-led coalition against IS, has actively supported rebels opposed to Assad. It has a tense relationship with its American allies over US cooperation with Kurdish fighters, who Ankara says are linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) fighting in Turkey. Turkey has launched multiple military offensives targeting Kurdish militias.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/L. Pitarakis
The eastern guardian
The Kremlin has proven to be a powerful friend to Assad. Russian air power and ground troops officially joined the fight in September 2015 after years of supplying the Syrian army. Moscow has come under fire from the international community for the high number of civilian casualties during its airstrikes. However, Russia's intervention turned the tide in war in favor of Assad.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/Tass/M. Metzel
The western allies
A US-led coalition of more than 50 countries, including Germany, began targeting IS and other terrorist targets with airstrikes in late 2014. The anti-IS coalition has dealt major setbacks to the militant group. The US has more than a thousand special forces in the country backing the Syrian Democratic Forces.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo/A.Brandon
The rebels
The Free Syrian Army grew out of protests against the Assad regime that eventually turned violent. Along with other non-jihadist rebel groups, it seeks the ouster of President Assad and democratic elections. After suffering a number of defeats, many of its members defected to hardline militant groups. It garnered some support from the US and Turkey, but its strength has been greatly diminished.
Image: Reuters
The resistance
Fighting between Syrian Kurds and Islamists has become its own conflict. The US-led coalition against the "Islamic State" has backed the Syrian Democratic Forces, an alliance of Kurdish and Arab militias. The Kurdish YPG militia is the main component of the SDF. The Kurds have had a tacit understanding with Assad.
Image: Getty Images/A. Sik
The new jihadists
"Islamic State" (IS) took advantage of regional chaos to capture vast swathes of territory in Iraq and Syria in 2014. Seeking to establish its own "caliphate," IS has become infamous for its fundamentalist brand of Islam and its mass atrocities. IS is on the brink of defeat after the US and Russia led separate military campaigns against the militant group.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo
The old jihadists
IS is not the only terrorist group that has ravaged Syria. A number of jihadist militant groups are fighting in the conflict, warring against various rebel factions and the Assad regime. One of the main jihadist factions is Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, which controls most of Idlib province and has ties with al-Qaeda.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/Nusra Front on Twitter
The Persian shadow
Iran has supported Syria, its only Arab ally, for decades. Eager to maintain its ally, Tehran has provided Damascus with strategic assistance, military training and ground troops when the conflict emerged in 2011. The Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite militant group Hezbollah also supports the Assad regime, fighting alongside Iranian forces and paramilitary groups in the country.
