Pakistan is in a state of political chaos. Its powerful military has been in a clinch with the civilian government for months. There are many factors contributing to the worst political crisis the country has seen in years. The main trigger was the US special operation that killed Osama bin Laden last May. The Pakistani army was lambasted in the weeks that followed for not protecting the country's sovereignty. The military's intelligence agency, the ISI, was also openly accused of creating a safe haven for the al Qaeda leader in the garrison town of Abbottabad.

The army, traditionally a state within the Pakistani state, was ridiculed.

Memogate

Tensions between the military and the government became so bad that President Asif Ali Zardari, widower of assassinated Benazir Bhutto, is alleged to have asked Washington to help prevent a military takeover via a note sent to President Barack Obama by the Pakistani ambassador to Washington. Pakistan's political landscape is still suffering from the so-called "Memogate" affair. Meanwhile, the ambassador has resigned. Now the Supreme Court in Pakistan is debating whether or not the supposed cry for help should be considered as treason.

Pakistan is no stranger to coups, so it is no wonder, with all the recent rumors, that people are worried they might soon be seeing tanks in the streets.

The last military coup took place in 1999 and brought General Pervez Musharraf to power. He remained leader of the country until a courageous public campaign - led by lawyers - revived the democratic process in 2008.

That year, civilian rule was restored. But the elected leadership has proven its incompetence on many occasions since then. Corruption is endemic. The "will of the people" is represented by the country's most influential family clans - and not by the parties. The government also failed twice - once in 2010 and again a year later - in its emergency response to the floods.

Civil society strengthened

But that doesn't mean that the Pakistani public would unconditionally support the military if it were to overthrow the government. The military is not popular at the moment.

Since its founding in 1947, generals have ruled the country for much longer than civilian governments. And the last military dictatorship has left many with a bad aftertaste.

Moreover, the country has changed dramatically since the 1999 putsch. Civil society has become much stronger. The Supreme Court is demonstrating its power in an unprecedented way. With the help of the lawyers’ movement, the judiciary is trying to establish itself as the state's third pillar. Since liberalization in 2002, the country's media has become freer, more powerful and more aggressive than ever before.

The country's economy is in no better shape than its politics. Pakistan is nearly bankrupt and is dependant on international help. And which general wants to take control of a country that is broke? Washington's financial injections are keeping Pakistan alive. If a coup were to take place, no American president would be able to convince Congress to continue aid to the country. One option would be for Islamabad to turn to Beijing for money. But the question is whether or not China would be willing to take Pakistan under its wing. What would that cost? It would not really be a solution. And Pakistani generals know that.　

Imran Khan vs. Zardari

So for the time being, it seems the army will resist its urge to take over in a time of crisis.

Instead, it seems, the military is hoping for another way in: through new elections in September or October, which could see the Zardari clan replaced with politicians who have closer ties to the military. Experts believe this is why the army has been backing former cricket legend Imran Khan and his Justice Movement. Khan has been travelling the country and preaching conservative Islamic politics, something that is finding more and more support among the growing middle class. The focal point of his campaign - the corruption of the Zardari government - has hit a nerve in the country. Khan describes his relationship to the powerful military as "based on reason." He has said military dictatorships are a thing of the past. He might be right - provided Pakistani voters play along.　

Author: Grahame Lucas / sb
Editor: Darren Mara