Four weeks that have felt like an eternity. Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, marks Europe's darkest day of the century so far. Over the past month, people, friendships and illusions have died in a hail of Russian bombs. Even the continent's old peaceful order is dead. And what the new one will look like is yet to be determined.
The initial assessment is a bitter one. Thanks to extensive US intelligence, the war did not come as a surprise. But most Western experts and even the Ukrainian leadership had expected a limited attack and focused their efforts on eastern Ukraine. They didn't expect anything akin to a Nazi German invasion of Poland in 1939.
Why people got it wrong
Looking back today, it is clear that Kyiv should have ordered the general mobilization and evacuation of its citizens much earlier. This miscalculation was likely due to the fact that the war, which began with the annexation of Crimea in 2014, had been limited in scope. Most people in Ukraine had no idea what it meant to be brutally bombed, and they underestimated the danger they were in.
It is hard to blame them for this though. None of us wanted to believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin and his army were capable of such barbarity. The thought that most Russians would welcome this war was also unimaginable to many. And even four weeks later these realizations are difficult to accept.
According to many Ukrainian and Western analysts, Putin's blitzkrieg failed. But Russia contends everything is going according to plan. Both views are true because wars never go according to the generals' plans. Of course, the Kremlin expected a fast victory and fewer Russian casualties. Still, it is hard to believe Putin expected Ukraine to surrender within a few days — the country is too big for that.
The war of attrition
Based on the idea that Russia has more soldiers, more weapons and more money, Putin's plan in all likelihood was to slowly destroy his southern neighbor.
But glimmers of hope, although rare, do exist. The most important realization is that Ukraine has been able to slow down and even stop the superior Russian army. There are two reasons for this: First and foremost, it is the Ukrainian fighting spirit. This also applies to civilians, who even in already occupied areas such as the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson stand in the way of Russian tanks with Ukrainian flags. The second reason has many names: for example Javelin, NLAW or Stinger. They are mainly armor-piercing weapons and anti-aircraft systems that the US and UK as well as other NATO countries rushed to Ukraine in the weeks prior to the invasion. Without these defensive weapons, Russia by now would have been able to occupy a much larger portion of Ukraine.
Calls for immediate oil and gas embargo
After a month, there is the question of whether Putin's war could indeed fail. It could fail because of the fighting spirit of the Ukrainian people. But they need significantly more and, above all, faster support. This means even tougher economic sanctions, completely cutting Russia off from SWIFT rather than the half-hearted limits on access to the international payment system, and an immediate embargo on Russian oil and gas. Yes, this is painful but when considering the massacre currently taking place in Ukraine, it is also necessary. Support also means delivering more weapons! NATO, for understandable reasons, does not want to shoot down Russian planes and rockets over Ukrainian skies. It wants to avoid direct confrontation. But combat aircraft for Ukraine's armed forces can and must be delivered, as well as state-of-the-art air defense systems.
It is not an easy decision. Russia has threatened the West with retaliation and the use of nuclear weapons. This is not a bluff. The danger is real. The West must nevertheless go down this path, step by step and very carefully. Anyone who thinks Putin will be satisfied to destroy Ukraine and then stop at its western border is mistaken. The West must finally recognize the scope of this war and act accordingly.
This article was originally written in German.