Turkey has voted in historic presidential and parliamentary elections. Despite the controversial vote, Erdogan claimed victory. The road ahead will be hard for the opposition and its supporters, writes DW’s Seda Serdar.
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A new era has begun in Turkey. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has cemented his power for the next five years, at least. The new system allows the president to appoint cabinet ministers directly, gives him the power to issue decrees and appoint members of the judiciary.
Erdogan was able to get an outright majority to win the presidency even though votes for his Justice and Development Party (AKP) dropped to 42.5 percent from 49.5 percent in the previous parliamentary election in 2015.
Big win for Erdogan
Yes, this is a big win for Erdogan. But it is a big win in a very polarized country. AKP voters are celebrating while the other half of the nation is deeply disappointed because they are aware that this is the end of democracy as they know it.
The opposition made a strong comeback, but it wasn't enough. Despite the complaints about vote manipulation, the AKP was quick to declare victory and will stick to it at all costs. It's a moment of deja-vu that reminds us of the 2017 referendum, in which the "yes" vote won by a slight majority, paving the way to constitutional change. The June 24 election was the last chance to reverse that decision. This was Turkey's last shot at democracy. Those citizens who voted for the opposition parties and what they stand for will have to find a way to adjust to the new system.
The world is watching
The world has been watching for a long time now. And it will continue to do so, since Turkey isn't an ally that could easily be abandoned. In the meantime Turkey's relations with the West, mainly with Europe, will be more challenging than before, probably more so for Erdogan's European counterparts than for the president himself since he now has the justification he needed to legally exercise his expanded power. He has been practicing during the state-of-emergency that has been ongoing since the failed 2016 coup.
Charting Turkey's slide towards authoritarianism
Turkey's shift towards authoritarianism has been over 10 years in the making. However, in the aftermath of the failed 2016 military coup, President Erdogan and the AKP have accelerated their consolidation of power.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/O.Weiken
July 2007: Abdullah Gul becomes Turkey's first Islamist president
After years of free market reforms, Turkey's transition slowly begins to reverse. Islamist Abdullah Gul's candidacy as president in 2007 marks a clear shift away from secularist policies, and strains relations between the ruling AKP and the military. However, with broad support from both conservative Muslims and liberals, the AKP wins the parliamentary elections and Gul is elected president.
Image: A.Kisbenede/AFP/GettyImages
September 2010: Constitutional reforms take hold
Then-Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan tables a constitutional reform increasing parliamentary control of the judiciary and army, effectively allowing the government to pick judges and senior military officials. The amendment, which is combined with measures also aimed at protecting child rights and the strengthening of the right to appeal, passed by a wide margin in a public referendum.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/A. Tumer
May 2013: Dissent erupts in Gezi Park
Pent-up anger directed by young people at Erdogan, Gul and the Islamist-rooted AKP hits a boiling point in May 2013. The violent police breakup of a small sit-in aimed at protecting Istanbul's Gezi Park spurs one of the fiercest anti-government protests in years. Eleven people are killed and more than 8,000 injured, before the demonstrations eventually peter out a month later.
Image: picture-alliance/abaca
July 2015: Turkey relaunches crackdown against Kurds
A fragile ceasefire deal between the Turkish government and the Kurdish rebel PKK group breaks under the weight of tensions aggravated by the war in Syria. Military forces resume operations in the mostly Kurdish southeast of Turkey. In early 2016, the Kurdistan Freedom Hawks (TAK) — a breakaway PKK faction — claim responsibility for two bombings in Ankara, each killing 38 people.
Image: picture-alliance/abaca/M. Coban
July 2016: Military coup attempt falls short
A military coup attempt against the government shakes Turkey to its core and briefly turns the country into a war zone. Some 260 civilians die in overnight clashes with the army across five major cities. Erdogan, however, rallies supporters and the following morning rebel soldiers are ambushed by thousands of civilians on the Bosporus Bridge. The troops eventually drop their guns and surrender.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/T.Bozoglu
July 2016: President Erdogan enacts a state of emergency
In the aftermath of the failed coup, Erdogan announces a state of emergency, leading to arrests of tens of thousands of suspected coup sympathizers and political opponents. Among those detained are military and judiciary officials and elected representatives from the pro-Kurdish HDP party. The purge is later expanded to include civil servants, university officials and teachers.
Image: Reuters/U. Bektas
2016: Crackdown on the press
As part of Erdogan's crackdown against supposed "terrorist sympathizers," Turkey becomes one of the world's leading jailers of journalists, according to Reporters Without Borders. The government shuts down around 110 media outlets in the year following the coup and imprisons more than 100 journalists, including German-Turkish correspondent Deniz Yücel.
Image: Getty Images/S.Gallup
March 2017: AKP officials try to stoke support in Western Europe
With a referendum on expanding Erdogan's presidential powers set for April 2016, AKP officials look to galvanize support among Turks living in Europe, particularly in Germany and the Netherlands. However, the Netherlands forbids Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu from landing in the country, while Germany opts to cancel two rallies. Erdogan accuses both countries of Nazi-style repression.
Image: picture-alliance/abaca/AA/S.Z. Fazlioglu
April 2017: Erdogan clinches referendum vote
Erdogan narrowly wins the referendum vote expanding his power. As a result, Turkey's parliamentary system is abolished in favor of a strong executive presidency. Erdogan is also allowed to remain in power potentially until 2029. However, international election monitors claim that opposition voices were muzzled and that media coverage was dominated by figures from the "yes" campaign.
Image: Reuters/M. Sezer
June 2018: Election wins secure Erdogan's power
Erdogan secures a new five-year term and sweeping new executive powers after winning landmark elections on June 24. His AKP and their nationalist allies also win a majority in parliament. International observers criticize the vote, saying media coverage and emergency measures gave Erdogan and the AKP an "undue advantage" in the vote.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/O.Weiken
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If the European Union decided to formally suspend the accession process with Turkey, it would mean ignoring the other half of the country that is striving for democracy. If they don't suspend it, then the bloc will have to find a way to deal with a country that is constantly violating the values that the EU is built on. The silence from world leaders following the preliminary election results suggests that caution will be practiced while dealing with Turkey.
Following the opposition's defeat, voters are frustrated that it has been so quiet. Erdogan's main rival, Muharrem Ince of the Republican People's Party (CHP), is due to make an official statement on Monday. Considering the news coming out about manipulation of votes both during and before the election, the voter frustration is understandable.
While the opposition worries about what to say to the public on June 25, Erdogan must roll up his sleeves and dive into improving the economy. Winning an election is one thing, but ending Turkey's economic woes will require more effort and is a big challenge, despite all the powers the new president has.