Trump-Erdogan realpolitik only hurts Syrian people
Miodrag Soric
Commentary
October 7, 2019
The US is apparently annoyed about Turkey’s planned offensive in northeastern Syria. But in reality, Presidents Erdogan and Trump are playing the same game — and human beings will lose, says Miodrag Soric.
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Image: Getty Images/AFP/D. Souleiman
US President Donald Trump never made a big secret out of his plans to withdraw US soldiers stationed abroad. Now, the White House has announced it will withdraw most of its forces from northern Syria. But by doing so, the US is abandoning its Kurdish allies, with whom it fought against the so-called Islamic State (IS). Many will criticize this as a cynical move and manifestation of realpolitik. But Trump will retort that he is merely doing what US voters, who are tired of war, want. They see that hardly any progress is being made in the Middle Eastern conflict zones. And will be glad to see US forces extricated and other nations take control.
The winds have changed in Turkey
Turkey is now poised to invade northern Syria — in part because Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been under domestic pressure for two months. His party suffered substantial losses in recent local elections, partly because his political rivals promised to address the issue of nearly 4 million Syrian refugees having fled to Turkey since the outbreak of the Syrian conflict in 2011. By now, many of them have settled into life in Turkey, with their children attending Turkish schools and families making use of medical and social services. Indeed, Turkey is doing great work when it comes to these refugees. But in recent times, the political winds have changed. Hundreds of thousands of Syrians in the labor force have crowded out Turkish workers. So now that Turkey finds itself in economic trouble, this is causing tensions — and some politicians are hoping to capitalize on this mood by demanding Syrians be swiftly repatriated.
Erdogan is among them. To him, the announced US troop drawdown is more than welcome. Now, Erdogan has free reign to create "safe zones" in northern Syria where he can then deport Syrian refugees. At the same time, Erdogan wants his forces to engage the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) which currently control the area. Turkey's invasion will boost its geopolitical influence in the wider region. And if someday there are talks on what postwar Syria should look like, Turkey will have an important say in the matter — alongside Russia and Iran.
But this realpolitik, as practiced by Trump and Erdogan, is hurting those who are most vulnerable: the Syrian refugees. What are they to do when they are brought back to war-torn Syria? Besides, to some, the country's north has never been home in the first place. How are they supposed to live in cities and towns wrecked by fighting, that have no functioning infrastructure, let alone jobs to offer? And how will they be repatriated? By force, against their will? If this is what Erdogan plans then we will soon witness yet another tragedy in the Middle East.
DW's Miodrag Soric
Europeans pay Erdogan to keep Syrians out
Many actors are to blame for the suffering of these people. Among them authoritarian leaders like Syria's President Bashar Assad, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iran's Hassan Rouhani. But also European states like Poland and Hungary, who refuse to take in refugees and look the other away when people endure hardship.
Last but not least, European leaders paying Erdogan billions to keep asylum-seekers from getting to central Europe are just as much to blame. For them, it is cheaper to pay off the Turkish president than to integrate hundreds of thousands of Syrians into their wealthy societies. It is, in other words, a political deal. And a manifestation of power politics and realpolitik — where morals don't matter.
Syria's civil war erupted out of the Arab Spring protests that swept much of the Middle East and North Africa in 2011. The conflict has since drawn in multiple warring factions from around the world.
Image: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images
War with no end
Syria has been engulfed in a devastating civil war since 2011 after Syrian President Bashar Assad lost control over large parts of the country to multiple revolutionary groups. The conflict has since drawn in foreign powers and brought misery and death to Syrians.
Image: picture alliance/abaca/A. Al-Bushy
The dictator
Syria's army, officially known as the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), is loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and is fighting to restore the president's rule over the entire country. The SAA has been fighting alongside a number of pro-Assad militias such as the National Defense Force and has cooperated with military advisors from Russia and Iran, which back Assad.
Turkey, which is also part of the US-led coalition against IS, has actively supported rebels opposed to Assad. It has a tense relationship with its American allies over US cooperation with Kurdish fighters, who Ankara says are linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) fighting in Turkey. Turkey has launched multiple military offensives targeting Kurdish militias.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/L. Pitarakis
The eastern guardian
The Kremlin has proven to be a powerful friend to Assad. Russian air power and ground troops officially joined the fight in September 2015 after years of supplying the Syrian army. Moscow has come under fire from the international community for the high number of civilian casualties during its airstrikes. However, Russia's intervention turned the tide in war in favor of Assad.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/Tass/M. Metzel
The western allies
A US-led coalition of more than 50 countries, including Germany, began targeting IS and other terrorist targets with airstrikes in late 2014. The anti-IS coalition has dealt major setbacks to the militant group. The US has more than a thousand special forces in the country backing the Syrian Democratic Forces.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo/A.Brandon
The rebels
The Free Syrian Army grew out of protests against the Assad regime that eventually turned violent. Along with other non-jihadist rebel groups, it seeks the ouster of President Assad and democratic elections. After suffering a number of defeats, many of its members defected to hardline militant groups. It garnered some support from the US and Turkey, but its strength has been greatly diminished.
Image: Reuters
The resistance
Fighting between Syrian Kurds and Islamists has become its own conflict. The US-led coalition against the "Islamic State" has backed the Syrian Democratic Forces, an alliance of Kurdish and Arab militias. The Kurdish YPG militia is the main component of the SDF. The Kurds have had a tacit understanding with Assad.
Image: Getty Images/A. Sik
The new jihadists
"Islamic State" (IS) took advantage of regional chaos to capture vast swathes of territory in Iraq and Syria in 2014. Seeking to establish its own "caliphate," IS has become infamous for its fundamentalist brand of Islam and its mass atrocities. IS is on the brink of defeat after the US and Russia led separate military campaigns against the militant group.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo
The old jihadists
IS is not the only terrorist group that has ravaged Syria. A number of jihadist militant groups are fighting in the conflict, warring against various rebel factions and the Assad regime. One of the main jihadist factions is Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, which controls most of Idlib province and has ties with al-Qaeda.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/Nusra Front on Twitter
The Persian shadow
Iran has supported Syria, its only Arab ally, for decades. Eager to maintain its ally, Tehran has provided Damascus with strategic assistance, military training and ground troops when the conflict emerged in 2011. The Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite militant group Hezbollah also supports the Assad regime, fighting alongside Iranian forces and paramilitary groups in the country.
