Official results still aren't in for Istanbul, but Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's AKP suffered drastic losses in many other important cities. The strongman's future looks weak indeed, Erkan Arikan writes.
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During his election campaign appearances, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan repeated one sentiment over and over again: An AKP loss in big cities would cause chaos in Turkey. Now that the local elections are over, there seems to be more to it than that: The political survival of the president could be at stake, because these elections were one of the biggest defeats Erdogan has yet suffered.
The AKP lost many important cities to the opposition. It became apparent on election night that almost all mayoral offices in the coastal cities of Izmir, Aydin, Antalya, Adana and Mersin would go to the social democratic opposition party CHP.
But then came the next blow for Erdogan: After more than 25 years of Islamic-conservative supremacy, a surprising change is now looming in Ankara, too. The republican challenger, Mansur Yavas, will fill the mayor's chair in the capital for the next five years — a huge blow to the AKP.
As Istanbul goes ...
In Istanbul, tensions continue to run high: The entire country waited to see the results of the head-to-head race between CHP and AKP until late at night. But suddenly the election commission stopped issuing further results.
When AKP mayoral candidate and former prime minister Binali Yildirim announced his election victory shortly before midnight, but then disappeared, many Turks became suspicious. The rumor quickly spread that ballot papers for Istanbul had been manipulated in order to bring in a win for the AKP. "We will not sleep for the next 48 hours," CHP party leader Kilicdaroglu announced in a press conference at night.
From Islamist youth activist to Turkey's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has made a career out of politics. But his path has been marked by controversy. DW takes a look at his rise to power.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/E. Morenatti
The rise of Turkey's Erdogan
In Turkey and abroad, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has a polarizing effect. He has been described as a neo-Ottoman "sultan" as well as an authoritarian leader. From his early beginnings campaigning for Islamist causes to leading NATO's second largest military as the president of Turkey, DW explores the rise of the Turkish leader.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/E. Morenatti
Jailed mayor of Istanbul
After years of moving up the ranks of the Islamist-rooted Welfare Party, Erdogan was elected mayor of Istanbul in 1994. But four years later, the party was ruled unconstitutional on the grounds it threatened Turkey's secularist nature, and was disbanded. He was later jailed for four months for a controversial public reading of a poem, and consequently lost his mayorship over the conviction.
Erdogan co-founded the Justice and Development Party (AKP), which won a majority of seats in 2002. He was made prime minister in 2003. During his first years in office, Erdogan worked on providing social services, improving the economy and implementing democratic reforms. But some have argued that his premiership was also marked by a religious shift in the political sphere.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/B. Ozbilici
Islamist causes
While Turkey's constitution guarantees the country's secular nature, observers believe Erdogan has managed to purge the "old secularist guard." The Turkish leader has said that one of his goals is to raise a "pious generation." Erdogan's supporters have hailed the Turkish leader's initiatives, arguing that they've reversed years of discrimination against practicing Muslims.
Image: picture-alliance/AA/C. Ozdel
Surviving a coup
In July 2016, a failed military coup targeting Erdogan and his government left more than 200 people dead, including civilians and soldiers. In the wake of the coup attempt, Erdogan declared a state of emergency and vowed to "clean up" the military. "In Turkey, armed forces are not governing the state or leading the state. They cannot," he said.
Image: picture-alliance/AA/K. Ozer
Nationwide crackdown
Since the failed coup, authorities have launched a nationwide crackdown, arresting more than 50,000 people in the armed forces, police, judiciary, schools and media. Erdogan has blamed Fethullah Gulen, a self-exiled cleric in the US and former ally, and his supporters of trying to undermine the government. But rights groups believe the allegations are a means to solidify his power and influence.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/E. Gurel
Divisive politician
While Erdogan enjoys significant support in Turkey and the Turkish expatriate community, he has been criticized for his heavy-handed policies and military campaigns against Kurdish militants following the collapse of a peace process in 2015. This January, Erdogan launched a deadly offensive into the northern Syrian enclave of Afrin, an operation that was widely condemned by human rights groups.
Image: picture- alliance/ZUMAPRESS/Brais G. Rouco
A new era?
Having served as Turkey's president since 2014, Erdogan successfully extended his time in office after winning elections in June. The elections marked Turkey's transition to an executive-style presidency. Observers believe the elections will herald a new era for Turkey – for better or worse.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/T. Bozoglu
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Now there is fear that CHP candidate Ekrem Imamoglu's victory in Istanbul was taken from him through electoral fraud. One indicator for this could be that the "High Electoral Commission" is still not publishing any results for Istanbul. This, in turn, did not prevent the CHP chairman from announcing at another press conference this morning that Imamoglu had won the majority of the votes counted.
One thing seems certain: if Istanbul actually goes to the AKP, the worst is to be feared: Protests, street battles, even the storming of the presidential palace ― everything is possible, according to observers on the ground. Independent European election observers also went on record to say that in their opinion, no free elections had taken place.
Despite its successes, CHP should not rejoice too soon: Erdogan will leave no stone unturned in his efforts to sabotage the the new mayors. Even if he appears reasonable now and admits that the government wants to learn from its mistakes, it is uncertain what Erdogan's next step will be.
The opposition fears that people in the east and southeast of Anatolia in particular, where the pro-Kurdish HDP managed to win numerous municipalities, could see AKP "stewards" forced on them. This step has in the past been an effective way for Erdogan to silence opposition politicians.
Furthermore, Erdogan recently announced that the economic crisis was to end on April 1. At the time, stock market experts suspected it to be an early April Fool's joke: If Erdogan could solve the country's economic problems so quickly and on command, why would he wait until after the local elections?
Whether Erdogan will remain in the presidential palace until the end of his regular term or not is one of the key questions after this electoral defeat. It now seems quite possible that he will name a successor way before his term comes to an end.
It is also conceivable that a new Islamic-conservative movement will be formed. For some time now it has been assumed, even among moderate politicians, that former Erdogan supporters want to found a new party. If they take this step, it is quite possible that AKP delegates desert Erdogan and join the new party ― quite a common practice among politicians in Turkey.
The decisive result of these local elections is that President Erdogan has not been strengthened ― on the contrary. His reputation has suffered a severe blow within Turkey and, above all, among his own electorate.
Charting Turkey's slide towards authoritarianism
Turkey's shift towards authoritarianism has been over 10 years in the making. However, in the aftermath of the failed 2016 military coup, President Erdogan and the AKP have accelerated their consolidation of power.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/O.Weiken
July 2007: Abdullah Gul becomes Turkey's first Islamist president
After years of free market reforms, Turkey's transition slowly begins to reverse. Islamist Abdullah Gul's candidacy as president in 2007 marks a clear shift away from secularist policies, and strains relations between the ruling AKP and the military. However, with broad support from both conservative Muslims and liberals, the AKP wins the parliamentary elections and Gul is elected president.
Image: A.Kisbenede/AFP/GettyImages
September 2010: Constitutional reforms take hold
Then-Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan tables a constitutional reform increasing parliamentary control of the judiciary and army, effectively allowing the government to pick judges and senior military officials. The amendment, which is combined with measures also aimed at protecting child rights and the strengthening of the right to appeal, passed by a wide margin in a public referendum.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/A. Tumer
May 2013: Dissent erupts in Gezi Park
Pent-up anger directed by young people at Erdogan, Gul and the Islamist-rooted AKP hits a boiling point in May 2013. The violent police breakup of a small sit-in aimed at protecting Istanbul's Gezi Park spurs one of the fiercest anti-government protests in years. Eleven people are killed and more than 8,000 injured, before the demonstrations eventually peter out a month later.
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July 2015: Turkey relaunches crackdown against Kurds
A fragile ceasefire deal between the Turkish government and the Kurdish rebel PKK group breaks under the weight of tensions aggravated by the war in Syria. Military forces resume operations in the mostly Kurdish southeast of Turkey. In early 2016, the Kurdistan Freedom Hawks (TAK) — a breakaway PKK faction — claim responsibility for two bombings in Ankara, each killing 38 people.
Image: picture-alliance/abaca/M. Coban
July 2016: Military coup attempt falls short
A military coup attempt against the government shakes Turkey to its core and briefly turns the country into a war zone. Some 260 civilians die in overnight clashes with the army across five major cities. Erdogan, however, rallies supporters and the following morning rebel soldiers are ambushed by thousands of civilians on the Bosporus Bridge. The troops eventually drop their guns and surrender.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/T.Bozoglu
July 2016: President Erdogan enacts a state of emergency
In the aftermath of the failed coup, Erdogan announces a state of emergency, leading to arrests of tens of thousands of suspected coup sympathizers and political opponents. Among those detained are military and judiciary officials and elected representatives from the pro-Kurdish HDP party. The purge is later expanded to include civil servants, university officials and teachers.
Image: Reuters/U. Bektas
2016: Crackdown on the press
As part of Erdogan's crackdown against supposed "terrorist sympathizers," Turkey becomes one of the world's leading jailers of journalists, according to Reporters Without Borders. The government shuts down around 110 media outlets in the year following the coup and imprisons more than 100 journalists, including German-Turkish correspondent Deniz Yücel.
Image: Getty Images/S.Gallup
March 2017: AKP officials try to stoke support in Western Europe
With a referendum on expanding Erdogan's presidential powers set for April 2016, AKP officials look to galvanize support among Turks living in Europe, particularly in Germany and the Netherlands. However, the Netherlands forbids Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu from landing in the country, while Germany opts to cancel two rallies. Erdogan accuses both countries of Nazi-style repression.
Image: picture-alliance/abaca/AA/S.Z. Fazlioglu
April 2017: Erdogan clinches referendum vote
Erdogan narrowly wins the referendum vote expanding his power. As a result, Turkey's parliamentary system is abolished in favor of a strong executive presidency. Erdogan is also allowed to remain in power potentially until 2029. However, international election monitors claim that opposition voices were muzzled and that media coverage was dominated by figures from the "yes" campaign.
Image: Reuters/M. Sezer
June 2018: Election wins secure Erdogan's power
Erdogan secures a new five-year term and sweeping new executive powers after winning landmark elections on June 24. His AKP and their nationalist allies also win a majority in parliament. International observers criticize the vote, saying media coverage and emergency measures gave Erdogan and the AKP an "undue advantage" in the vote.