It is becoming increasingly clear that the war in Syria defies all logic. It is driven by cynical rivals who use short-term tactics without pursuing any long-term strategies, says DW’s Kersten Knipp.
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Image: Reuters/O. Sanadiki
Following the logic of the various military forces in Syria reveals a twisted form of reason. Who is forming alliances with whom and why? Nothing seems to make sense for long, and new chaos and new partnerships are constantly emerging.
Turkey's military operation in Afrin is a telling example of the cynicism in Syria. Moscow has seemingly given Ankara the green light for its incursion into northern Syria. But why would Russia, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's protector, do that? One of the theories is that by invading Syria, Turkey is fueling tension with its NATO partner the United States, who, in turn, backs the Syrian Kurds. From the Russian point of view, any rift that undermines NATO unity is a welcome development, particularly with regard to Ukraine.
Cynical power games
But Russia may be concerned about something else. Turkey could ultimately emerge weakened from its military operation in Syria. And a weakened Turkey may need to turn to Russia for help — giving Moscow the upper hand in its rivalry with Ankara.
None of this has much to do with Syria itself anymore. It is about ruthless power games. NATO member Turkey is marching callously into a foreign country. At the same time, Iran is increasingly entrenched in Syria, buying land and setting up businesses, while threatening increased pressure on Israel from the Golan Heights. Iran, the grand master of oppression, makes a sheer mockery of it all by accusing the Turkish government of violating human rights. What happens in Iran every day, if not that?
Europe's temptation
The war in Syria has lost its aim. And it will probably not be found, even if French President Emmanuel Macron decides to intervene militarily, which he has threatened to do if he sees "proven evidence" of chemical weapons use on civilians. Such an intervention would benefit Macron, who takes pride in his humanist stance, but it would not help end the war. Would Macron dare send French fighter jets to combat the Russians?
Europe is not a military power in Syria. And France must think carefully about future military activities after the intervention in Libya and its catastrophic consequences.
In retrospect, it was not wise to launch the military intervention against the "Islamic State" in the summer of 2014 without international legitimacy. Things continued to go downhill after making that colossal mistake. It is hard for interventionists to condemn other interventionists.
Who's fighting in the Syria conflict?
Syria's civil war erupted out of the Arab Spring protests that swept much of the Middle East and North Africa in 2011. The conflict has since drawn in multiple warring factions from around the world.
Image: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images
War with no end
Syria has been engulfed in a devastating civil war since 2011 after Syrian President Bashar Assad lost control over large parts of the country to multiple revolutionary groups. The conflict has since drawn in foreign powers and brought misery and death to Syrians.
Image: picture alliance/abaca/A. Al-Bushy
The dictator
Syria's army, officially known as the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), is loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and is fighting to restore the president's rule over the entire country. The SAA has been fighting alongside a number of pro-Assad militias such as the National Defense Force and has cooperated with military advisors from Russia and Iran, which back Assad.
Turkey, which is also part of the US-led coalition against IS, has actively supported rebels opposed to Assad. It has a tense relationship with its American allies over US cooperation with Kurdish fighters, who Ankara says are linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) fighting in Turkey. Turkey has launched multiple military offensives targeting Kurdish militias.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/L. Pitarakis
The eastern guardian
The Kremlin has proven to be a powerful friend to Assad. Russian air power and ground troops officially joined the fight in September 2015 after years of supplying the Syrian army. Moscow has come under fire from the international community for the high number of civilian casualties during its airstrikes. However, Russia's intervention turned the tide in war in favor of Assad.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/Tass/M. Metzel
The western allies
A US-led coalition of more than 50 countries, including Germany, began targeting IS and other terrorist targets with airstrikes in late 2014. The anti-IS coalition has dealt major setbacks to the militant group. The US has more than a thousand special forces in the country backing the Syrian Democratic Forces.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo/A.Brandon
The rebels
The Free Syrian Army grew out of protests against the Assad regime that eventually turned violent. Along with other non-jihadist rebel groups, it seeks the ouster of President Assad and democratic elections. After suffering a number of defeats, many of its members defected to hardline militant groups. It garnered some support from the US and Turkey, but its strength has been greatly diminished.
Image: Reuters
The resistance
Fighting between Syrian Kurds and Islamists has become its own conflict. The US-led coalition against the "Islamic State" has backed the Syrian Democratic Forces, an alliance of Kurdish and Arab militias. The Kurdish YPG militia is the main component of the SDF. The Kurds have had a tacit understanding with Assad.
Image: Getty Images/A. Sik
The new jihadists
"Islamic State" (IS) took advantage of regional chaos to capture vast swathes of territory in Iraq and Syria in 2014. Seeking to establish its own "caliphate," IS has become infamous for its fundamentalist brand of Islam and its mass atrocities. IS is on the brink of defeat after the US and Russia led separate military campaigns against the militant group.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo
The old jihadists
IS is not the only terrorist group that has ravaged Syria. A number of jihadist militant groups are fighting in the conflict, warring against various rebel factions and the Assad regime. One of the main jihadist factions is Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, which controls most of Idlib province and has ties with al-Qaeda.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/Nusra Front on Twitter
The Persian shadow
Iran has supported Syria, its only Arab ally, for decades. Eager to maintain its ally, Tehran has provided Damascus with strategic assistance, military training and ground troops when the conflict emerged in 2011. The Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite militant group Hezbollah also supports the Assad regime, fighting alongside Iranian forces and paramilitary groups in the country.
Image: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images
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War has its own dark laws. If the situation does not improve, then the arbitrary slaughtering will continue, guided by the great masters of cynicism who no longer have a goal — at least not a worthy one.
