For the EU, Donald Trump's election proved a steep learning curve, and the damage caused by the US president will be difficult to repair. But Trump's tenure has also done Europe some good, writes DW's Max Hofmann.
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Image: Getty Images/AFP/S. Loeb
It's hard to imagine that just two years ago, life was without Donald Trump. In Brussels, seat of the European Union and NATO, the US president's role is pivotal. And even from his office on the other side of the Atlantic, Trump has certainly burned himself into the collective memory of Europe.
Trump's unforgettable appearances at NATO summits, where various ranting tirades caused considerable commotion and ruffled plenty of feathers. The threats of tariffs on European cars and the announcement of a US withdrawal from the INF treaty on nuclear disarmament also sent Brussels into a spin.
So, from a European point of view, everything about the US president is abominable? Most people would see it that way, but it's not entirely true. In many ways, Trump has actually done the EU good. The benefits of Trump for Europe are clearly unintentional but also rather obvious. "The Donald" has united the EU.
Trump's stances have ensured European solidarity and progress in many areas. Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) among EU members in foreign and security policy, for example, would not exist as it does now without Trump.
Ever since Trump's election, the popularity of the bloc has been on the rise — at least on the continent's mainland. In Brussels, some may even say — behind closed doors — that Trump is the best thing that could happen to the EU.
When Angela Merkel met Donald Trump
After a stiff first encounter with US President Donald Trump, German Chancellor Angela Merkel's second visit to the White House had a much more positive vibe.
Image: Reuters/B. Snyder
Cold start
President Donald Trump appeared standoffish in front of the cameras when he welcomed Chancellor Angela Merkel to the White House last March. The US president refused to extend a hand to the chancellor in front of media at the Oval Office, a stiff image that defined their first encounter.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/M. Kappeler
Kiss and make up?
Merkel and Trump had a much more friendly aura when the two met in Washington for the second time, greeting each other with a cordial kiss on the cheek when the German chancellor arrived at the White House.
Image: Reuters/B. Snyder
Shaken, not spurned
A year after their uncomfortable photo op, Trump and Merkel provided the public with their long-awaited handshake. In fact, it was Trump who extended his hand to Merkel this time around.
Image: Reuters/K. Lamarque
Seeing eye to eye?
Trump called Merkel an "extraordinary woman" when the two addressed media on Friday. But the two are still ironing out some disagreements, including what to do about the Iran nuclear deal and whether the US will continue an EU tariff exemption on steel and aluminum imports.
Image: Reuters/K. Lamarque
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'The medium is the message' — or is it?
Yet Trump does of course also pose a threat to Europe. And that's not just for the obvious reasons: withdrawing from the Paris Agreement on climate change and the Iran nuclear deal, and destabilizing global trade relations.
Instead, it is because even within the borders of the EU, Trump is garnering support among the population and politicians. They don't necessarily admire the president for his tantrums, insolence and insults, but they appreciate his disregard for political correctness and that he addresses truths often swept under the rug. A few examples?
— The accusation that the Europeans were not paying the amount committed to defense under NATO: patently correct
— The accusation that the US is in a disadvantageous position with the EU and China regarding tariffs: in many respects, correct
— The declaration that Russia violated the INF Treaty: correct
— The declaration that some multilateral institutions, such as the World Trade Organization, are outmoded and inefficient: in recent years, also correct.
The way Trump conducts himself is well below the belt — there is no denying that. But that's not enough to nullify his Twitter tirades, because many people don't care about manners, especially in this day and age.
Donald Trump on NATO: Top quotes
From disparaging NATO member states to calling it "obsolete," US President Donald Trump has rarely said something positive about the decades-old military alliance. DW looks at the US president's most memorable quotes.
Image: picture-alliance/Zumapress/J. Torres
Trump on NATO: A war of words
Even before taking office, US President Donald Trump's relationship with NATO has been a tumultuous one, to say the least. He has disparaged the trans-Atlantic alliance, once describing it as "obsolete" and a relic of the Cold War. Here are Trump's most memorable quotes about the military alliance, even if they are at times false.
Image: picture-alliance/Zumapress/J. Torres
'Days of the Soviet Union'
While on the campaign trail in 2016, Trump made clear that he saw NATO as a relic of the Cold War. "You know, we're dealing with NATO from the days of the Soviet Union, which no longer exists. We need to either transition into terror or we need something else." But his remarks didn't account for how the alliance backed the US well after the collapse of the Soviet Union, especially in Afghanistan.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/M. Kulbis
'Germany owes vast sums'
Trump has made defense spending his main talking point on NATO. But he has falsely accused member states of owing money to Washington, saying: "Germany owes vast sums of money to NATO, and the United States must be paid more for the powerful, and very expensive, defense it provides to Germany." The problem is NATO doesn't work like that. No money is owed to the alliance for defense or otherwise.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/K. Nietfeld
'Obsolete'
Days before his inauguration, Trump caught NATO members off guard when he claimed the alliance was "obsolete" and threatened to withdraw support. "I said a long time ago that NATO had problems: Number one, it was obsolete, because it was designed many, many years ago." Months later, he retracted his statement, citing changes within the alliance. "Now they fight terrorism," he said.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/T. Stavrakis
'Doesn't sound very smart'
Trump had tended to lump trade between US allies with how much Washington spends on defense. "We are spending a fortune on military in order to lose $800 billion (in trade losses). That doesn't sound very smart to me," Trump said. The problem is that while NATO members have agreed to spend 2 percent of their GDP on defense, the alliance has nothing to do with international trade.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/E. Vucci
'We are the schmucks'
During a 2018 rally in Montana, Trump hit out at European allies, saying: "They want (us) to protect against Russia, and yet they pay billions of dollars to Russia, and we're the schmucks paying for the whole thing." Trump was referring to Russia as Europe's primary source for oil and natural gas, but he created a false dichotomy between energy reliance and NATO's defense spending goal.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/V. Kryeziu
'Congratulations, you're in World War III'
In an interview with Fox News, Trump was asked why the US should jump to the defense of NATO ally Montenegro if it was attacked. The president said he asked himself the same question, a remark that appeared to undermine the alliance's collective defense clause. Trump went on to describe Montenegrins as "very strong" and "very aggressive," and that that aggression risked starting World War III.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo/M.Dunham
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Brussels is listening...
But the EU should do its best to take the wind out of his sails. In some cases, it is already doing so, for example in increasing defense spending and in coordinating foreign and security policy.
Europe is also beginning to take seriously the concerns of the many people drifting towards populists like Trump. These include concerns about digitization and one's own identity in a globalized and increasingly complex world — one whose reality is increasingly shaped by digital giants in China or the US.
The success of Italy's Matteo Salvini, serving as both deputy prime minister and interior minister, and of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban are cold, hard proof that the EU has not yet been able to dispel these concerns.
...But its learning curve is steep
So what is there to take away from two years of Trump? The EU is trying to use the momentum that the US president has brought to many issues of world and trade policy to its advantage. Trump has finally given the bloc the impetus to construct an EU that is not just important economically but has what European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker called "Weltpolitikfähigkeit," which he defined as "the capacity to play our role in shaping global affairs."
Max Hofmann, DW Brussels bureau chief
Juncker's experience and cleverness make him one of the few European politicians who seem to have found a successful strategy on how to deal with Trump. In trade policy, he offers simple and clear compromises, the game of simple give and take that the "businessman" Trump can apparently make sense of.
In terms of reducing the impact of would-be Trumpian populists, making use of the room for maneuver in world politics, and finding the most effective strategies to deal with the US president, the past two years have meant a steep learning curve for the EU.
However, neither Europe nor the rest of the liberal world has found effective means to prevent the havoc being wreaked by Trump on the trans-Atlantic relationship. Trump is unintentionally ensuring that the EU finally seeks self-reliance.
But from a European perspective, surveying the mounds of broken porcelain, it would nonetheless have been better if Europe could have come of age without Trump in the picture.
EU-US trade relationship
The European Union and the United States are each other's largest export markets. Here's a look at what the two regions export and import — and which industries could be affected in a trade war.
Image: Imago/Hoch Zwei Stock/Angerer
More than a trillion euros in trade
The European Union is the US' largest export market, accounting for about one-fifth of all US exports. Similarly, one-fifth of EU exports go to the United States. EU-US trade in goods and services was €1,069.3 billion in 2017. The EU imported €256.2 billion in goods from the US, and exported €375.8 billion.
Image: Imago/Hoch Zwei Stock/Angerer
EU trade surplus
The main exports and imports between the EU and US fall into the categories of machinery and vehicles, chemicals and other manufactured goods. Combined, they accounted for 89 percent of EU exports and imports with the US in 2017. In all three categories, as well as food and drink, the EU had a trade surplus. The US had a trade surplus in raw materials and energy.
Image: Reuters
Cars, machinery top exports
At €167 billion, machinery and vehicles were the largest EU export category to the US, accounting for 44.4 percent of goods exports. The €111.5 billion in machinery and transport equipment was the largest EU import from the US, accounting for 43.6 percent of imports.
Image: picture-alliance/U. Baumgarten
Small part of trade pie
At the end of May 2018, the Trump administration imposed a 25 percent tariff on EU steel and 10 percent tariff on aluminum. Steel and aluminum exports to the United States were worth €3.58 billion in 2017.
Image: Reuters/Y. Herman
Retaliatory tariffs
In response, the European Union developed a list of products it may subject to retaliatory tariffs. These include typical American products like peanut butter, bourbon whiskey, Harley Davidson motorcycles, jeans and orange juice. The exports targeted by the EU are worth about €2.8 billion annually, according to EU officials.
Image: Shaun Dunphy / CC BY-SA 2.0
Services include travel, education
For services, the EU imports amounted to €219.3 billion and exports €218 billion. The top services were in professional and management services, intellectual property, travel and education. About a third of EU-US trade consists of intra-company transfers.
