The Turkish opposition's victory over the ruling party in Istanbul's rerun election is an important victory for democracy. It also sets the stage for a possible shift in the country's politics, writes DW's Erkan Arikan.
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Ekrem Imamoglu from the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) secured a clear victory over Binali Yildirim of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), beating the former prime minister by nine points in an Istanbul rerun election on Sunday that saw high voter turnout.
June 23, 2019, will no doubt go down in the history books of Turkey. It was exactly 19:15 local time when various media outlets began releasing the results. In the first election, Imamoglu eked out a margin of 13,000 votes ahead of the former prime minister. This time, his advantage was nearly 800,000 votes. For many in Turkey that is more than a sign. It is a wake-up call: Democracy in Turkey is still alive.
One indication of this is that all of Imamoglu's political opponents, who had showered him with insults and defamation during the campaign, subtly congratulated him on his success, even President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
For the president, this defeat is without a doubt a full-on slap in the face. With all of the means at his disposal, he tried to get his candidate to win, even going so far as to put the Supreme Electoral Council under pressure. Yet the electorate made him pay a stiff price.
'We need justice'
Even the votes of ethnic Kurds were sought by the AKP in an unprecedented way. However, the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) had called on their supporters to vote for Imamoglu. For the first time in Turkey, I've seen people outwardly express their desire for democracy.
Shortly after the Supreme Electoral Council set the rerun election date for June 23, many vacation spots urged Istanbulites to cancel their holidays and stay home for the vote. Special means of transportation were deployed, busses chartered and carpooling organized to bring people to Istanbul to cast their ballot. It turned out that hundreds of thousands – some even claim 1.5 million voters – came to Istanbul for 24 hours to cast their ballots. Bridal couples, before they said their vows, first went to the voting booths. A taxi driver I talked to said: "I have always chosen the AKP. I will not do it this time. We need justice. We are believers and not hypocrites!"
What does it mean for Erdogan's AKP?
Erdogan now finds himself in a huge dilemma. He can no longer continue in the same fashion with hard-line policies, restrictions on the press and pressure on members of the opposition. In addition to the foreign policy tightrope he has long walked, he now faces a new domestic political force.
The loss of Istanbul after 25 years — as mayor of Istanbul, he launched his rise to the highest level of political power — will also leave its mark on him. There are even signs that his former allies have been waiting for this historic defeat in the metropolis on the Bosphorus.
Turkey: Back to Erdogan's Istanbul roots
Istanbul has always been one of the most important places for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Kasimpasa, his old neighborhood and his birthplace, continues to stand behind him.
Erdogan's hometown
Just a short walk from Galata Tower and Istanbul's central Istiklal Avenue on the European side of the city, sits Kasimpasa. It's the neighborhood where the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was born and raised 65 years ago. It's also the place where his most loyal supporters live.
Image: Demetrios Ioannou
A new era
Last summer, Turkey held one of the most consequential elections in the country's modern history. On June 24, 2018, Erdogan started a new five-year term and became the first Turkish president to gain unprecedented new powers. "Turkey is entering a new era," he told members of his Justice and Development Party (AKP) on the day he was sworn in as president again.
Image: Demetrios Ioannou
Maximum power
In the wake of a 2017 referendum, Erdogan managed to change the constitution from a parliamentary democracy to a presidential republic. That allowed Erdogan to now serve both as head or state and head of government. It was the biggest change to the country's political system since the Turkish Republic was established by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk in 1923. Here, a dress has been made out of AKP flags.
Image: Demetrios Ioannou
One of the family
Posters bearing Erdogan's face and AKP flags bedecked Kasimpasa for days ahead of the election. Pasted on walls or hanging from balconies, it was clear who the neighborhood supported. Opposition candidates' posters were usually found torn or vandalized. For the people of Kasimpasa, Erdogan is part of the family.
Image: Demetrios Ioannou
A simple background
Erdogan comes from a conservative, working class family, a background that many of his supporters can relate to. He started his political career from Kasimpasa, where he lived most of his life. He first became mayor of Istanbul in 1994, prime minister in 2003 and president of Turkey in 2014.
Image: Demetrios Ioannou
Great expectations
The residents of Kasimpasa watched the news impatiently on election day in 2018. Most of the neighborhood's cafes were packed with men who had gathered hours earlier, waiting for the official results to come out. They were embroiled in passionate political discussions as they drank Turkish coffee or hot tea on that warm summer day.
Image: Demetrios Ioannou
Local hero
Erdogan is a local hero in Kasimpasa, someone like them who made it to the top. Though he's not exactly one of them anymore, as some of his opponents say. But for the locals nothing has changed. Why do they vote for him? "Because we love him," proclaimed one neighborhood resident who had cast a ballot for the president.
Image: Demetrios Ioannou
'Man from Kasimpasa' above all
Erdogan is known in the area as "Kasimpasali," or "the man from Kasimpasa." When initial results were announced on TV, people of all ages took to the streets of Kasimpasa to celebrate his victory, even though all ballots had not yet been counted. "They are traitors," a group of women said of those who voted for the opposition.
Celebration
The victory parade traversed streets throughout Kasimpasa before coming to an end at the central square by the port. There people sang, danced, set off fireworks and shot rifles into the air. A giant LED screen showed the results as people hugged each other and waved AKP flags. It was Erdogan's biggest win to date, and his former neighbors celebrated for him.
Back to the voting booth
One year later, the people of Kasimpasa and the rest of Istanbul have been called to the polls once again. The March 31 mayoral election resulted in a slim win for opposition candidate Ekrem Imamoglu over the AKP's Binali Yildirim. Under pressure from the AKP over allegations of ballot "irregularities," the election body nullified the results and scheduled a rerun of the election for June 23.
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It has been rumored over the past weeks and months that founding members of the AKP plan to launch a new party, an idea that may gain greater traction with the CHP victory in Istanbul.
Is this the end of Erdogan? Hardly likely. Erdogan will not let this defeat bring him down. Is this a turning point for Erdogan? Absolutely. Erdogan has two paths he can take: He can continue with an even harder course or he can do everything, including reaching compromises, to stay in power.
His biggest goal is still to remain president until the 100th anniversary of the Turkish Republic in 2023, which coincides with the next scheduled parliamentary and presidential elections. To do so, Erdogan will have to make more compromises in the future — perhaps for the first time in his political career.