US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo wants to impose the "strongest sanctions in history" on Iran. The Trump administration isn't eyeing America's safety as much as a regime change, says DW's Matthias von Hein.
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Image: Imago/Ralph Peters
Mike Pompeo chose to hold his first major foreign policy speech on familiar territory. With regard to content, the new US secretary of state also remained true to himself. Only three years ago, Pompeo had ranted against the Iran deal at the right-wing conservative Heritage Foundation. On Monday, he took the very same line — though this time, he carried the weight of his office and had the backing of the president.
One can and must be critical of many of Iran's actions in the Middle East region, and of how the regime rules the country. But the lopsidedness of Pompeo's remarks detracts from their credibility. The selective compilation of alleged facts, twisting and even ignoring certainties, raises doubts whether Europeans and the US share a common basis for talks on Iran — not to mention talks between Tehran and Washington.
Washington insists it is negotiating from a position of strength. Pompeo and the Trump administration, however, aren't negotiating at all — they are dictating. Pompeo's 12 demands directed at Iran amount to forcing the regime to capitulate — otherwise it faces complete economic strangulation. Basically, Pompeo has declared economic war on Tehran and added a list of a "coalition of the willing, hinting that European partners join that coalition, fully aware that Europe wants to stick to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal. At the end of the day, Pompeo's speech amounted to an appeal to Brussels to please leave future decisions on trade, security and foreign policies to Washington.
The Iranian people Pompeo addressed several times during his speech can only avert looming disaster with a change of regime – that is the crystal clear subtext. The speech leaves little doubt that Washington wants to expedite regime change. The US may have forgotten that Washington toppled Iran's first democratic government back in 1953, replacing it with the Shah's dictatorship — but the Iranians haven't.
Hardliners strengthen hardliners
The EU's foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, has declared, correctly, that the nuclear deal was never meant to clarify every single controversial matter in relations with Iran. Most of all, Pompeo's speech didn't have a word on how the unilateral termination of the nuclear deal is supposed to make the region safer, and how it aims to increase pressure on Tehran.
One thing is clear: the hardliners in Washington are strengthening the hardliners in Tehran. Before it could even take effect in Iran, Washington gave up on "change through rapprochement," a concept Germany successfully adhered to during the Cold War. And if a reminder were needed: Trump's sabotage of the JCPOA denied Iran dividends of the deal from the start.
Europe faces tough decisions: Washington demands loyalty for policies deemed erroneous by European leaders. Should Europe stay true to itself and its convictions, the transatlantic gap will widen and Brussels will move closer to Moscow and Beijing, the other nuclear deal signatories. However, there are worries, that in the long run, Washington will use a subtle game of "divide and conquer" to dissemble the unity Europeans currently display. And, lest it forgets, the EU has little to offer in response to American pressure on European companies concerning sanctions on Iran.
Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat
A year after Donald Trump pulled the US from the international nuclear accord with Iran, the Middle East nation announced it would no longer adhere to some "voluntary commitments" in the accord.
Image: picture-alliance/epa/D. Calma
The deal breaker
President Donald Trump announced on May 8, 2018 that he was pulling the United States out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, arguing that the international accord was not in America's "national interest." The decision threw a cloud of uncertainty over the future of the nuclear accord and raised tensions with US allies in Europe.
Image: Reuters/J. Ernst
Slap in the face
Britain, France and Germany lobbied the Trump administration and Congress to remain in the nuclear accord, arguing that the deal was working and a US violation without a follow up plan would be destabilizing. In European capitals, the Trump administration's withdrawal was viewed as a slap in the face of allies.
Image: Reuters/K. Lamarque
Iran scrap 'voluntary commitments'
A year to the day after Trump's announcement, Iran informed the other signatories of the accord that they would no longer adhere to certain "voluntary commitments." Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said the signatory nations had 60 days to implement promises to protect Iran's oil and banking sectors or Iran would resume the enrichment of uranium.
The decision came after the United States deployed an aircraft, the USS Lincoln, along with a bomber task force to the Middle East. Washington said the deployment was intended as a "clear unmistakable message." Iran said it took action because the European Union and others "did not have the power to resist US pressure."
Image: AP
A triumph of diplomacy
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), better known as the Iran nuclear deal, was signed in 2015 by United States, China, Russia, France, Germany and Britain (P5+1) and Iran following years of negotiations. Under the international agreement, Iran agreed to dismantle its nuclear program and be subject to monitoring in exchange for the lifting of international nuclear related sanctions.
Image: picture alliance / landov
Compliance and verification
The JCPOA includes a robust monitoring, verification and inspection regime carried out by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The UN watch dog has verified Iran's compliance with the deal in 12 quarterly reports. The JCPOA allows Iran to pursue a peaceful nuclear program for commercial, medical and industrial purposes in line with international non-proliferation standards.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/R. Schlager
Obama's achievement
The Iran nuclear deal was President Barack Obama's signature foreign policy achievement. Seeking to undo nearly every Obama administration legacy, Trump came into office calling it the "worst deal ever." The Trump administration argues the nuclear deal doesn't address other unrelated issues such as Iran's ballistic missiles, regional influence, support for "terrorist" groups and human rights.
Image: Reuters/Y. Gripas
Iranians approved
The nuclear deal and lifting of punishing nuclear related international sanctions created optimism in Iran after years of economic isolation. However, even before Trump pulled the US out of the deal, Tehran blamed the US for holding back international investment and not fulfilling its end of the bargain due to the uncertainty created by Trump's threats.
Image: picture alliance/AA/F. Bahrami
The opponents
After eight years with Barack Obama, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu found the US president he wanted in Donald Trump. The Israeli leader repeatedly slammed the deal despite his own military and intelligence chiefs' assessment the that JCPOA, while not perfect, was working and should be maintained. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the other main opponents of the nuclear deal.
Image: Reuters/R. Zvulun
Who's left?
The EU-3 (Britain, France, Germany) have scrambled to ensure that Iran receives the economic benefits it was promised in order to avoid Tehran pulling out of the deal. As EU businesses face retaliation from the US for doing business with Iran, many are opting to avoid Iran. This would likely be a present to Chinese and Russian businesses.
