Reports of an apparent attack on President Nicolas Maduro leave more questions than answers, except for one: The only one benefiting from all this is Maduro himself, writes Uta Thofern.
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Image: picture-alliance/Xinhua News Agency
Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro has claimed at least 20 coups or attacks against him, but not a single one has done him harm. To the contrary, his regime emerges from every actual or supposed attack stronger than before, regardless if carried out by foreign "imperialists" or his country's own "far-right" opposition.
This latest incident, claimed by the "Soldiers in T-Shirts" movement, shows that Venezuela finds itself not only in a grave political and economic crisis, but that it has arrived to the era of "fake news." It's hardly clear if Maduro really was attacked by a drone. The Associated Press news agency quoted firefighters as attributing the explosion to a gas tank in an apartment.
Maduro exploits every new incident as cause to carry out additional witch hunts against the opposition, insult his neighbors, like Colombia — and of course purge his own ranks and those in the army. Each incident further distracts from increasingly unbearable problems in the country.
Gas cheaper than water
The apparent attack happened during a parade marking the 81st anniversary of Venezuela's National Guard — and three days following his announcement of a new gasoline policy, which itself strangely took place during a power outage that left the capital, Caracas, in darkness for hours.
Gas subsidies have since been coupled with a government-sponsored car census, with only census participants receiving the subsidy. A fill-up in Venezuela costs less than one euro cent, but most of the gas needs to be imported from other large oil producers because Venezuela's own oil industry is in ruins.
Uta Thofern leads DW's Latin America department
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently announced that the country should expect inflation this year to reach 1 million percent. The Venezuelan government said it would knock off five zeros from its currency, the bolivar, after it had already planned in March to knock off three. Even inflation gets ahead of a dictator's planning.
Starving children
The Venezuelan government subsidizes many other items aside from gas: energy, local transport, food and medicine, all things the country lacks because Venezuela doesn't generate the currency it needs for imports. What's more, the "Bolivarian Revolution" has paralyzed Venezuela's own production capacities. There are countless reports of sick people going without care in dilapidated hospitals, starving children, smuggling mothers and desperate emigrants.
In March 2017, violent protests erupted across the country in response to a Supreme Court decision to strip the legislative branch of its powers. Amid an international outcry, President Nicolas Maduro reversed the decision, but it was too late. Thousands continued to take to the streets, calling for new elections. More than 100 people were killed in clashes with security forces.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/J. Barreto
Hunger, a growing problem
The violence added to the ongoing economic and political crisis in Venezuela. Many Venezuelans spend more than 30 hours a week waiting in lines to shop, and are often confronted with empty shelves when they finally enter a store. President Maduro blames the crisis on US price speculation. The opposition, however, accuses the Socialist government of economic mismanagement.
Image: picture-alliance/AA/C. Becerra
Health care in crisis
The crisis has even affected health care in the oil-rich nation. Venezuelans often head to Colombia to collect medical supplies to send home, as seen in this picture. Hospitals across Venezuela have compared conditions to those seen only in war zones. As patient deaths rise, health officials have sounded the alarm on the rise of malaria and dengue fever.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/M.Duenas Castaneda
Power grab
By July 2017, Venezuela's pro-government Constituent Assembly was established. For observers, it had all the hallmarks of a power grab. The new body adopted the authority to pass legislation on a range of issues, effectively taking away the powers of Venezuela's elected congress, which was under the opposition's control. The move drew wide international condemnation.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/P. Miraflores
The West sanctions
In response to the political crisis, the United States and European Union imposed a series of sanctions against ruling officials. The US blacklisted members of the Constituent Assembly and froze all of Maduro's assets that are subject to US jurisdiction. The EU banned arms sales to the country.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/AFP/T. Schwarz
Government victorious in regional elections
In October 2017, Venezuela held two votes: regional elections and elections for governors, which were long overdue. The opposition boycotted the vote, but then split, as some candidates and small parties chose to participate. This caused a deep rift within Maduro's opponents. The government went on to sweep the vote, which detractors say was unfair and heavily favored the regime.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/A. Cubillos
Debt default
In November 2017, the oil-rich, cash-poor nation faced its day of reckoning. Credit ratings agencies declared Venezuela and its state-run oil company in "selective default." But Russia offered to restructure the South American country's debt to ensure Caracas pays its other creditors. US and EU sanctions, however, limited the chance of an agreement.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/A. Cubillos
Presidential elections scheduled
The National Assembly announced in January 2018 that it would grant Maduro's call for snap presidential elections. The electoral authority, CNE, held the elections on May 20. The EU, the US and 14 Latin American nations warned that they would not recognize the results. The mainstream MUD opposition alliance boycotted the vote, leaving only one possible outcome.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/F. Parra
Maduro wins ...
Maduro was re-elected to a second six-year term with about 68 percent of the vote. Turnout was only 46 percent, according to electoral authorities. However, the MUD opposition alliance put turnout at less than 30 percent. The Organization of American States (OAS) called the elections neither free nor fair.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/A. Cubillos
... Guaido assumes power
But weeks into the new year, the situation took a drastic turn. On January 23, 2019, parliament president Juan Guaido declared himself interim president of Venezuela — a move that was quickly recognized by US President Donald Trump. Maduro called it a US-backed "coup." Days later, the US sanctioned Venezuela's state oil firm, while Guaido staked his claim on the country's foreign assets.
Image: Imago/Agencia EFE
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Government attempts to counteract all this leaves it looking increasingly helpless, because it is helpless. Venezuela is so fundamentally wrecked that it will take decades for the once-richest country in Latin America to return to at least a minimum standard of living akin to its neighbors. The newly announced partial easing of exchange rates will not suffice; soon enough, even the most loyal followers of the late President Hugo Chavez, who founded the Bolivarian Revolution, will have difficulty making ends meet.
There is hardly anything more dangerous for a government than to end subsidies, as many examples around Latin America, and in Venezuela itself, show. Maduro knows this, no matter how unavoidable it may be. His regime is steering Venezuela straight towards the edge of a cliff.
This does not justify an attack on him, but nor is there any reason for one. Any number of die-hard successors stand behind him with nothing to gain, and everything to fear from regime change. Everything points to an implosion: It is only a matter of time before the so-called socialism of the 21st century collapses in on itself.
