President Umaro Sissoco Embalo, first elected in 2019, is running for a second term despite initially pledging to serve only one.

Sissoco Embalo sought to remind voters how much he had done for the country: "I have given my all to give Guinea-Bissau a second chance at the future. Do you really want to hand the country over to someone who has no vision for the future?" he asked.

In 2023, he dissolved the opposition-controlled parliament after armed clashes which he described as an attempted coup. But critics saw this move as an effort to extend his mandate.

"Although Embalo's official term ended in February 2025, he remained in office and spent the following months systematically sidelining the opposition," the journalist Bacar Camara told DW. 

Of the 14 parties competing for 102 parliamentary seats, only the pro-government platform No Kumpu Guine (Together for Guinea-Bissau) appears to have a realistic chance at winning a majority. For the first time in the country's history, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), which led Guinea-Bissau to independence from Portugal in 1974, will not appear on the ballot.

The PAIGC-led coalition Pai Terra Ranka (Forward with Our Homeland), headed by Embalo's main rival Domingos Simoes Pereira, was disqualified by the Supreme Court in October. Officially, the reason was the late submission of election documents, though many observers view it as politically motivated.

Judiciary accused of being weaponized

Camara says the regime has used the judiciary to eliminate political opponents.

"The two main opposition coalitions were simply disqualified on legal grounds that lack any credible basis," he said. He described the move as a "domino effect" seen in other African countries — a strategy to systematically weaken the opposition and consolidate power.

Lucia Bird, an expert at the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime, told the AFP news agency that Embalo is in a "strong position."

"This is partly explained by the fact that he was able to conduct his campaign without restrictions, unlike the remaining opposition, which faced significant limitations," such as a lack of resources, she said.

The only well-known alternative is independent candidate Fernando Dias, whose support stems in part from the PAIGC. Other candidates, such as Jose Mario Vaz and Baciro Dja, remain largely marginal.

Limited international oversight

Guery Gomes Lopes, spokesperson for the Guinean Human Rights League, criticized the lack of engagement from international organizations. Neither the West African trade bloc ECOWAS, nor the African Union, the European Union,or the United States have shown significant interest.

"This is the first time that there is no international oversight of the elections. We don't know if the international organizations have not been invited or if they are not interested," Lopes told DW, adding that "we don't know what is going on with the international partners, like the European Union. This is not a free, just and transparent electoral process."

It is unclear which international observers have been invited, and domestic law does not allow local monitors. Some civil society groups plan to oversee the elections, but they have limited capacity.

Independent media coverage is also restricted. Public Portuguese broadcasters RTP Africa and RDP Africa, as well as the news agency LUSA, were expelled from Guinea-Bissau in August. Bascar Camara told DW that while airtime is legally regulated, coverage is heavily skewed in favor of the government, leaving opposition voices marginalized.

Edited by: Cai Nebe