US President Donald Trump plans to impose a 50% import tariff on products from Brazil as of August. The threat sparked outrage in the South American nation, partly because of fears of economic fallout, but also for another reason: Trump linked his move to the ongoing trial of Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil's president from 2019 to 2023, on charges of forming a criminal organization to stage a coup.

On January 8, 2023, about a week after President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva took office, Bolsonaro supporters stormed Congress, the seat of government, and the Supreme Court in the capital, Brasília, vandalizing both buildings. To this day, Bolsonaro refuses to acknowledge Lula's election win.

"Brazil is doing a terrible thing on their treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro," Trump wrote Monday on his Truth Social platform. "I have watched, as has the World, as they have done nothing but come after him, day after day, night after night, month after month, year after year! He is not guilty of anything, except having fought for THE PEOPLE." Trump wrote that that he would be "watching the WITCH HUNT of Jair Bolsonaro." He added: "LEAVE BOLSONARO ALONE!"

Delighted by Trump's statement, Bolsonaro wrote on X: "Thank you for being there and for setting an example of faith and resilience." The auhoritarian former president has called his trial "political persecution."

'Quite an affront'

Since starting his second term in January, Trump has imposed or threatened extremely high tariffs on imports from many countries. His argument has been that years of high trade deficits have threatened US national security.

The president has used tariffs as a political tool in other cases — for example, he threatened tariffs on Mexico  to force the country to clamp down on US-bound illegal immigration and drug trafficking, and he used the levies to pressure the European Union into relaxing regulations that affect US companies. Yet this time things are different: Trump's tariffs are mainly about a domestic Brazilian issue, irking many in Brazil.

"It is unacceptable and quite an affront for one country to try to interfere in the politics of another country in this way," the Brazilian political scientist and international relations expert Leonardo Paz Neves told DW.

Brazil's government responds

Lula wrote on X that unilateral tariff increases on imports from Brazil would produce a response on the basis of the principle of economic reciprocity. Lula also said legal proceedings against Bolsonaro were in the hands of a constitutional and independent judiciary. The Brazilian president has called an emergency meeting with his ministers in view of Trump's tariff plans.

"Brazil is a sovereign country with independent institutions that will not be told what to do by anyone," Lula wrote.

Not all Bolsonaro backers continue to support the former leader amid Trump's looming tariffs. Paz Neves, an analyst with the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), told DW the US leader's move could backfire on Trump and Bolsonaro. He says that even some conservative Brazilians have begun criticizing the incoming tariffs and supporting Lula.

Brazil is unlikely to yield to Trump's pressure and allow the United States to interfere in its national affairs or with the independence of its judiciary. "That's not possible, even if we wanted to [interfere]," says Paz Neves. "We have a separation of powers, and the Bolsonaro trial is a legal matter."

Bolsonaro will stand trial before the Supreme Court. If convicted, he could face up to 40 years in prison. The verdict is not expected until September, but it seems that Trump is already coming to his defense. "The big question is how the US will react if Bolsonaro goes to prison," Paz Neves said. "We will have to watch this closely."

This article was originally written in German.