The Supreme Court of Pakistan has warned the country's powerful military against attempting a coup to oust the government of President Asif Ali Zardari. The court said the army should stay out of politics and respect the country's constitution.

"If anybody tries any supra-constitutional action, the Supreme Court will stop it," Yasin Azad, president of the Pakistan Supreme Court Bar Association, told a Deutsche Welle correspondent. "I don’t think that the Pakistani Army will repeat the same mistake by planning any coup as they did in the past.

"We want to remind the army that, according to the constitution of 1973, it has no political role. For the best national interest, political leaders must sort out all their differences in a positive democratic way and within the parliament."

Analysts say the current times mark the worst point in relations between the government and military since the army restored civilian rule after seizing power in 1999. The escalation has raised fears over stability in the nuclear-armed country and key - albeit wary - US ally, which has a history of coups and military rule.

Tensions continued towards fever pitch on Thursday following the sacking by Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani of the country's top defense official from his post. The move is seen as having greatly angered the military.

Retired Lieutenant General Naeem Khalid Lodhi, the most senior civil servant responsible for military affairs, was removed for "gross misconduct and illegal action which created misunderstanding" between institutions, Gilani's office said in a statement.

The post was the military's main advocate in the civilian bureaucracy. Conversely, the position of defense secretary is also seen as vital to the prime minister being able to dismiss the army or intelligence chiefs.

'Serious ramifications'

The recent unease began earlier this week when Prime Minister Gilani told a Chinese news website that the military had breached the Pakistani constitution by commenting on a Supreme Court probe into the unfolding "memogate" scandal, which erupted last year over a leaked government document seeking US aid in preventing a feared potential coup.

"There can be no allegation more serious than what the honorable prime minister has leveled," the military had responded. "This has very serious ramifications with potentially grievous consequences for the country."

Muhammad Anwar, who works with the Friedrich Neumann Foundation for Freedom in Islamabad, says the sacking could be seen as a direct affront to the army. "Everyone is firing on everyone else. Yesterday, the government decided that, yes, the siege should be in their hands," he told Deutsche Welle.

Fuelling speculation of a coup in the offing was news that the country's president, Asif Ali Zardari, had left Pakistan early Thursday for private reasons. A Foreign Ministry spokesman said later that Zardari was attending a wedding in Dubai, where he has previously spent time to seek medical care, and that he would return on Friday.

However, the fact that many assumed Zardari may be fleeing Pakistan is a sign of the times, says Muhammad Anwar, adding that tension is building in Pakistan, with the next chapter of the story not far from being written.

"Something will happen. Things will not calm down. Everyone is on red alert," he says. "The military thinks that, yes, it has the power to throw everyone out. Yesterday, it changed the command of a special brigade that is known for playing a role whenever there is a coup."

Raja Pervez Ashraf, a senior member of the ruling Pakistan People's Party, sought to play down concerns the military could seek to oust the government.

"The government does not want confrontation among national institutions. Right now the most important things for Pakistan is stability and unity. In the case of confrontation, we will have to face disastrous consequences," he told a Deutsche Welle correspondent.

Consultations

A parliamentary session was called for Thursday, whilst the military has also called a special meeting of top commanders to discuss the standoff. But despite having so much power behind it, Anwar says there is still one factor that could prevent a military takeover.

"If the army takes action, the popularity of the [ruling Pakistan Peoples Party] will leap because the army will be seen as creating problems for innocent people," he says. "The people do not want the army back in power, and so all political forces are against military action."

It's also thought that the military has little appetite for assuming management of the country at this point. Most analysts say army chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani sees the battle against Islamist militants as his prime focus. The country is also facing economic ruin and seizing power would trigger domestic and international criticism.

Author: Darren Mara
Editor: Anne Thomas