The amount of plastic being churned out annually is far outpacing the global capacity to manage and recycle it.

While some products are vital, much is made for single-use items that not only lead to direct plastic pollution but have a long tail of climate and environmental impacts. 

Some 99% of plastics are derived from fossil fuels, which at a time when the world is gradually transitioning towards clean energies to power homes, cars and economies, serves as a lifeline for the oil and gas industries that are heating up the planet.  

In addition, refining and processing fossil fuels into plastic products such as packaging, textiles, electronics and construction materials releases billions of tons of greenhouse gases. In 2019, it accounted for over 5% of the world's emissions. 

Despite this, the production of new or virgin plastic has rapidly expanded in the last two decades and is projected to increase two or even threefold by 2050, potentially tripling associated global emissions. This would account for around a quarter of the remaining carbon budget scientists say the world can afford to use if it hopes to prevent runaway heating.

Yet experts say there is little sign of a changing trend away from growth. 

Is plastic production increasing everywhere? 

It is "absolutely true" that plastic production is rapidly increasing, said Ambrogio Miserocchi, business coalition co-lead at the Ellen MacArthur Foundation, a UK charity focusing on promoting a circular economy. "Even if you look at the planned investment, even if you look at the capacity that is being installed...it is actually growing very fast." 

This is despite the fact that an increasing number of countries are limiting single-use plastic products, with at least 140 nations having introduced either bans or restrictions on some form of plastic products.

"The only place where capacity is going down slightly is in the European Union," said Joan Marc Simon, founder of Zero Waste Europe, a network dedicated to reducing plastic waste. "The rest of the world is increasing." 

However, Simon added that high production costs have led to producers either manufacturing outside Europe or importing plastic from elsewhere.  

"We know for sure that all main producers are increasing capacity: US, China, South Africa, Brazil, Iran, Saudi Arabia," said Simon, adding that more virgin plastic is also being produced in countries such as Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia — very often by Chinese companies. 

China is the world's biggest plastics manufacturer, accounting for around a third of global production.

Can production be regulated?

Activists have long argued that slowing production is the solution to overflowing plastic, but for years, public narratives and international negotiations have instead focused on tackling the resulting waste with things like beach clean-ups and recycling. 

However, only 9% of plastics are recycled, and many types can't be made into new products. As a result, the vast majority end up in landfills or being incinerated. Many leaks into the environment in the form of microplastics, which have been found in the most remote parts of the earth, in the air we breathe and even our bodies.

Reduction was the main sticking point at the inconclusive global plastic talks in Korea last December. It will likely again be a key point of contention during resumed negotiations in Geneva. 

Giulia Carlini, senior attorney in the environmental health program at the Center for International Environmental Law says that while capping production raises many open questions — including whether it should mean stopping new plants coming online — the primary hurdle is simply reaching a consensus on reduction.

"What's really not there is agreement on doing it." 

Last year, while over 100 nations supported capping production, a handful  — including Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and China — blocked the measure, said Christina Dixon, ocean campaign lead at the UK charity, Environmental Investigations Agency. "This very small group of countries, which are, I guess, predominantly petro-states, are saying, just no, it's a hard red line." 

Carlini says one obstacle to reducing production is the strong influence that powerful corporate actors have established at international negotiations.

According to CIEL analysis,fossil fuel and chemical lobbyists comprised the largest delegation in Korea, larger than those of the entire EU and its member states. Carlini adds that in some cases they are "enshrined" at the governmental level with some corporate lobbyists registered as part of national delegations. 

What other ways could production be reduced? 

Experts say that capping supply is not the only way to reduce plastic production; lowering demand is also important.

It would also make a difference if most countries that import plastic either "don't accept the plastic products in the first place or they start reducing how much they accept," said Carlini.  

Similarly, Simon highlighted the idea of a treaty between non-producers, especially those countries in Africa or Asia that are bearing the brunt of plastic pollution. He said their decision to restrict plastic use "could have quite some impact on the production because demand will be limited". 

Miserocchi said there are signs that reduction is possible even outside a UN framework. He pointed to a global commitment to reduce plastic use facilitated by the foundation of over 1,000 organizations. It claims to have cumulatively avoided 9.6 million tons of virgin plastics production since 2018.

He added that not only NGOs but also some businesses are calling for a reduction in plastic production. For example, through the Business Coalition for a Global Plastics Treaty, a grouping that includes businesses from across the plastics supply chain.  

Although specific proposals have been made — such as Rwanda and Peru suggesting reducing global production by 40% by 2040 —  Miserocchi says putting a specific figure on the issue is difficult, partly because of a lack of data on plastic production.  

He adds that ultimately reduction, while important, needs to be paired with shifts in business models and product design to avoid merely replacing plastic with huge increases in other material streams. "We need to change the way we use products."

Edited by: Tamsin Walker