The new shooting star on Poland's political stage is just 36 years old. Slawomir Mentzen has a PhD in economics and owns a tax consultancy and a craft brewery.

His political program, which he calls the "Constitution of Freedom," is simple: One tax rate (12%) for all, tax relief for private entrepreneurs, the abolition of obligatory pension contributions and health insurance, and fierce criticism of the European Union.

Mentzen hopes that these policies will lead the Confederation alliance to third place in this fall's parliamentary elections.

Right-wing alliance formed in 2019

Mentzen's New Hope party is part of the alliance known as Confederation Liberty and Independence, or simply Confederation for short. Other members of the alliance include the far-right National Movement and Polish Crown parties.

The libertarian, nationalist, right-wing Confederation alliance was formed in the run-up to the 2019 parliamentary election and won 11 seats in the lower house of parliament, the Sejm. However, squabbles within the alliance and provocative appearances in parliament in the intervening period meant that it remained on the fringe of Polish political life.

This year, however, support for Confederation has been growing steadily. Some polls indicate that it has already passed the 15% mark and even overtaken other parties vying for third place in the election, such as the New Left or the alliance between the centrist Christian Democratic Poland 2050 party and agrarian Polish People's Party.

Nipping at the heels of the two main parties

For over 20 years now, politics in Poland have been dominated by two heavyweights, Donald Tusk and Jaroslaw Kaczynski.

Tusk's liberal-conservative pro-European Civic Platform (PO) was in power from 2007 to 2015. Kaczynski's right-wing, eurosceptic Law and Justice (PiS) party was in government both before and after that (2005–2007 and 2015 to present). No political force has thus far been able to break the duopoly of these two major parties.

Now, however, a little over two months before Poland's parliamentary election, Confederation is ready to step into the spotlight. Its rapid ascent in the opinion polls is down to political newcomer Mentzen, who has succeeded in giving the dubious movement a modern, new image that appeals to a certain section of the electorate.

Recent change in image, style and target group

When the alliance was founded four years ago, Mentzen said that its aim was to create "a Poland without Jews, homosexuals, abortion, taxes and the European Union." Today, he rarely makes public statements like this and says little about his plans to use prison sentences to punish women who have had abortions.

With his preference for "Beer with Mentzen" events over lengthy political addresses, his political style is very different, too. He is targeting young men, particularly self-employed entrepreneurs. According to the research institute Ogolnopolska Grupa Badawcza, half of all men between the ages of 18 and 39 intend to vote for Confederation in the upcoming parliamentary election.

A change at the top

In order to make Confederation more attractive to voters — and to the mainstream in particular — Mentzen dethroned Janusz Korwin-Mikke, the father of the libertarian movement in Poland, and replaced him as party leader.

Korwin-Mikke, an 80-year-old MP with a reputation for being the enfant terrible of Polish politics and a penchant for bow ties, had long been an obstacle to the modernization of the party.

Long before the collapse of communism in 1989, Korwin-Mikke was promoting a radical form of market economics and criticizing the welfare state. He has also run for both parliament and the presidency on a number of occasions. With every defeat, he became more and more radical. Down through the years, his misogynistic and pro-Russian statements have regularly caused uproar.

Pro-Russian, anti-German stance

Korwin-Mikke shares his pro-Russian stance with another high-profile member of the Confederation alliance: Grzegorz Braun, leader of the Polish Crown party.

Braun recently caused a stir when he stormed the podium at an event at the German Historical Institute, destroying a loudspeaker and preventing a renowned historian from speaking about the Holocaust. Braun defended his actions at a party conference in June with the words: "Neither Germans nor Jews will give us a history lesson."

He has also referred to the EU as the "Euro-kolkhoz" (a form of Soviet collective farm) and called for an end to the "Ukrainization of Poland".

Is a coalition with Confederation likely?

As an anti-establishment coalition, Confederation is rejecting all alliances with traditional parties. The PO and PiS have also declared that they do not at present want anything to do with Mentzen.

Nevertheless, Kaczynski does seem to be aware of the imminent threat: It looks as if his tactic of never leaving room for a political force to the right of the PiS could be in tatters. 

Criticism from the government and opposition

Kaczynski spoke about Confederation for the first time at a public event in the last week of July. He said that its program had been written by "lunatics," adding that "only children could believe in such a program."

Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki also went on the offensive: "This is a Darwinist program that makes the strong stronger, the rich richer and the poor poorer," he said.

Opposition leader Tusk also targeted Confederation, calling its tax plans "nonsense." Speaking at an election campaign event in Poznan, he said that "Confederation is acting like it is the opposition. In reality, it is even more radical than the PiS on many points."

All experts agree that neither Tusk nor Kaczynski will be able to govern alone after the election. In that case, Confederation would be even more powerful than either of the country's two major parties care to imagine. 

The leading Polish weekly, Polityka, has already predicted what will happen if this situation does indeed come about: "Confederation will refuse to join the government — no matter who is in charge — and will wait for the crisis and early elections. Then it will lay claim to power."

Mentzen's time may come sooner than many think.

This article was originally published in German.