Anna Radwan-Röhrenschef is handing out election flyers on Warsaw's Wilson Square. With less than a week to go before Poland elects a new parliament, the 45-year-old sociologist is trying to sway voters who have not yet made up their minds.

Radwan-Röhrenschef is standing for the Christian Democratic Third Way (TD), an alliance of three small parties that was set up just last April.

Right beside her, Katarzyna Piekarska is also handing out flyers. She is canvassing for the opposition Civic Platform (PO) led by Donald Tusk.

Both parties hope to work together after the election to prevent Jaroslaw Kaczynski's Eurosceptic Law and Justice (PiS) party from getting a third term in power.

Liberals canvassing in a conservative district

Handing out flyers for the liberal opposition is no easy job on Wilson Square on the last Sunday before the election.

PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski lives nearby, and the people streaming out of St. Stanislaus Kostka Church don't seem enthusiastic about the liberal candidates' flyers.

This is not surprising considering Poland's Catholic bishops had just issued a statement saying that Catholics cannot vote for a party that accepts abortion.

Either Third Way or a third victory for PiS?

"I really like Warsaw; I love Europe," says Anna Radwan-Röhrenschef, adding that this is exactly why she is canvassing for Third Way and for a change in Polish politics.

Third Way's co-leader Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz has said that "Either Third Way enters parliament or Kaczynski's PiS will have its third term in office in the bag."

Radwan-Röhrenschef agrees wholeheartedly with this assessment and adds: "We have a fantastic program."

Uphill struggle for Third Way

The problem for Third Way — which includes the agrarian Polish People's Party (PSL) and the new centrist Christian Democratic Poland 2050 party — is that there is very little difference between its program and that of Donald Tusk's PO.

Despite her family's Polish heritage, Radwan-Röhrenschef's German-sounding name has made her the target of a lot of hate online in recent months. The right-wing populists have made anti-German feeling a cornerstone of their election campaign.

It is by no means certain that Third Way will be in the next parliament: At 8%, the threshold for alliances is higher than for individual parties (5%).

Some polls put Third Way above this threshold, others below it. If the alliance does not make it into parliament, PiS's chances of a third term in power automatically improve.

Tusk needs two coalition partners

How the smaller parties fare on October 15 will determine who forms the next government.

The largest opposition party in Poland, Tusk's PO, which has joined forces with two smaller parliamentary groups — including the Greens — to form the Civic Coalition (KO) alliance, can only stop Kaczynski's party returning to power if Third Way and New Left get good results and are actually part of the next parliament.

Polls suggest that Tusk's party can expect about 30% and the ruling PiS 34–37% of the vote. Only if Third Way and New Left each get about 10% will the liberal-conservative opposition get the 231 seats it needs in the 460-seat parliament.

Tusk drums up support for Third Way

Tusk knows this. Initially, he saw Third Way as an annoying rival that might potentially take votes away from his party. Then he realized that a good outcome for Third Way was actually in his interest.

At the March of a Million Hearts in Warsaw on October 1, he called on people who don't want to vote for him to vote for Third Way instead.

Candidates for both parties have been cooperating at grassroots level for some time. "We don't see Third Way as rivals, but as partners with whom we will govern," says Katarzyna Piekarska.

New Left hopes for coalition with Tusk

New Left's result will be equally important for PO, with whom it has been working closely for quite some time.

At the March of a Million Hearts, one of its leaders, Wlodzimierz Czarzasty, assured the crowd that his party was ready for a coalition with PO after the election. With its radical criticism of the Catholic Church and plans for a far-reaching liberalization of abortion laws, New Left is an option for those who consider Tusk too conservative.

PiS also needs a partner

But Kaczynski will also have to rely on a coalition partner if he wants to lead the next government. For him, however, the nationalist, libertarian Confederation Liberty and Independence alliance ("Confederation" for short), is his only option.

Although Confederation is already represented in parliament, it has really only ever been on the fringes of Poland's political landscape. Its former leader, 80-year-old Janusz Korwin-Mikke, was too extreme for Polish voters.

While an MEP, Korwin-Mikke was penalized by the European Parliament in 2017 for claiming that women should earn less than men because they are weaker, smaller and less intelligent.

Will Confederation be the kingmaker?

It was only when 36-year-old economist and businessman Slawomir Mentzen was made leader of Confederation that support for the party grew. Mentzen has dismissed his earlier statements that he wanted "no Jews, no homosexuals, no abortion, no taxes, and no European Union" as "youthful transgressions."

Confederation wants to drastically cut social security payments and do away with pension insurance. It also has nationalist and anti-Ukrainian policies.

Although Confederation has taken swipes at both Tusk and Kaczynski during the election campaign, experts doubt that the party would reject an offer to join a government coalition with PiS.

Incidentally, Kaczynski showed during his first term in office (2005–2007) that he is eminently capable of dividing and undermining smaller coalition partners.

At this stage, it looks as if the question as to which party will end up tipping the balance in favor of either PiS or PO will remain unanswered until the very last vote is counted.

This article was originally published in German.