Just days ahead of the decisive second round of Poland's presidential election, it's still all to play for candidates Rafal Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki.

The most recent opinion poll published by IBRIS on Monday put liberal-conservative, pro-European candidate Trzaskowski at 45.7% and his national-conservative, euroskeptic rival, Nawrocki, at 44.9%, with 7.8% still undecided. A different institute put both candidates at 47% on May 23.

This means that the two rival camps in this election — the center-left ruling coalition headed by Prime Minister Donald Tusk of the Civic Platform (PO) party and the national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski — are now fighting tooth and nail for every undecided voter.

In the first round of the presidential election on May 18, Trzaskowski got 31.36% of the vote ahead of Nawrocki's 29.54% — a much tighter margin than anticipated.

In an attempt to win over new voters, Trzaskowski, who has been mayor of the capital, Warsaw since 2018, invited Poles to take part in the "March of Patriots" in the capital last Sunday.

The leaders of all parties in Tusk's ruling coalition gave him their backing at the huge rally.

"Rafal, win this election for us and change Poland," said Szymon Holownia, speaker of the Polish parliament and member of the Christian Democratic Poland 2050 party.

"We are choosing between a brown and a colorful Poland," said Magdalena Biejat of the New Left party and called on Poles to vote for Trzaskowski.

Both Holownia and Biejat were knocked out in the first round of the presidential election.

Gloves are off

The prime minister himself demonstrated that the tone in this election campaign has become rougher.

In a reference to Nawrocki's past, Tusk warned that "common gangsters" were reaching for power. Nawrocki, a former boxer who once earned a living as a bouncer, had contacts in the underworld and the ultras scene.

It was recently reported that he once took part in an arranged mass brawl between militant fans of two rival soccer clubs.

Candidate Trzaskowski also cautioned against putting Poland in the hands of a "muscle man."

Support from Romania's president-elect

Guest of honor at Sunday's "March of Patriots" was Romania's Nicusor Dan, who was officially sworn in as president a day later.

"A week ago, Romania was the winner; in a week's time, Poland will be the winner," he said in Polish to loud applause. Dan offered Trzaskowski close cooperation between the two countries inside the EU.

At the end of the rally, Trzaskowski pledged he would "drive" the government to swift reforms. He also said Poland now needs a "new moonshot," adding that it was his intention that Poland would overtake the strongest countries in Europe.

After the parliamentary election in October 2023, many voters turned away from the pro-European government led by Donald Tusk because he was unable to implement most of his election promises. The outgoing national-conservative president, Andrzej Duda, has blocked corresponding laws.

According to Warsaw's city authorities, about 140,000 people took part in the Trzaskowski rally. His team put the figure at half a million.

Nawrocki promises a 'Great Poland'

Nawrocki's "March for Poland," which was intended to be a rival event to Trzaskowski's rally, took place at the same time and just a few hundred meters away.

The motto of the march, which saw Nawrocki, Kaczynski and other PiS politicians marching through the streets of Warsaw, was "Poland first."

"A great, strong Poland is coming," he told the crowd that had gathered outside Warsaw's Royal Castle. Nawrocki is a historian who has been head of Poland's Institute of National Remembrance since July 2021.

The national-conservative candidate for the presidency invoked the "national community" he says is characterized by a "Christian identity" and promised a "secure Poland" without irregular immigrants. "I am one of you; someone just like you; I am your voice," he said.

About 50,000 Nawrocki supporters took part in the march.

Ultra-right disrupter seizes his opportunity

While Trzaskowski and Nawrocki battle it out for the presidency, ultra-right politician Slawomir Mentzen is enjoying his role as kingmaker.

Mentzen was eliminated from the race in the first round after coming third with almost 15% of votes. Just under 3 million voters, mostly young people, voted for the libertarian disrupter.

Now Mentzen is trying to make political capital out of his unexpected success and give his Confederation Liberty and Independence party a head start for the 2027 parliamentary election.

Mentzen invited both Trzaskowski and Nawrocki to join him on his YouTube channel for separate discussions based on an "eight-point plan" he had drawn up.

The plan included pledges not to raise taxes, not to introduce the euro in Poland, not to transfer any new powers to the EU and stop Ukraine from joining NATO.

Keen to court Mentzen's favor, Nawrocki has already signed the plan.

Trzaskowski, on the other hand, refused to sign it after his debate with Mentzen on Saturday during which he put forward good arguments and demonstrated his full command of the situation and the issues at hand.

Nevertheless, Trzaskowski hopes his confident performance will win over at least some of those who backed Mentzen in the first round of the election. By Sunday, just under 4.5 million people had watched the discussion.

The news that Trzaskowski, Mentzen and Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski drank beer together in a pub after the debate caused confusion in right-wing circles, with some speaking of treachery.

Both sides target 'those who have not yet made up their mind'

Trzaskowski also did well in Friday's televised debate on public broadcaster TVP.

Here, Nawrocki committed a faux pas: He was seen holding his hand in front of his face and putting something in his mouth. He initially claimed that the substance in question was chewing gum. However, his campaign team later said that it was a pouch of tobacco, a stimulant known as "snus."

Political scientist Anna Materska-Sosnowska is certain that the events of the weekend will have a considerable impact on the outcome of the election runoff.

"Those who already have a firm opinion, will not be swayed. But it is about those who have not yet made up their mind and those who stayed at home on May 18 [the first round of the presidential election]," she told the Polish news agency PAP.

"This test of strength ended in a tie. Both sides showed that they can mobilize many people," said political scientist Olgierd Annusewicz of the weekend rallies, adding that "the duel continues. It is not possible to say that one of the two is currently ahead."

"The mayor of Warsaw can be satisfied with his final sprint in this election campaign," wrote the newspaper Rzeczpospolita. "Whether he will also be satisfied with the outcome of the runoff will be seen on Sunday."

This article was originally written in German.