State elections in Germany have much more than regional meaning — they are seen as a gauge of the federal government's performance. That's why although only two of the country's 16 federal states voted on September 1 — with their 5 million eligible voters a fraction of the 61 million nationwide — the results are significant.

This is the first time in an election for a state parliament that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party received more than a third of the vote. A newly established populist party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), managed to score votes in the two-digit range in their very first election. Plus, the parties which make up the Berlin-based federal government have never seen such bad results in a regional vote.

In the eastern states of Saxony and Thuringia, the far-right AfD received more than double as many votes as the three parties which make up the federal coalition government — the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), environmentalist Greens and neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) — combined. These parties' results are each in the single digits. The Greens in Thuringia and the FDP in both states even failed to meet the 5% threshold to be represented in the state parliaments.

'Punishment' for the government in Berlin?

The SPD was also threatened with being thrown out of the state parliaments, according to pre-election opinion polls, but in the end was spared this debacle.

Four out of five German voters have said they are unsatisfied with the work of the federal government, and that has long been the case. The monthly survey conducted by pollsters infratest dimap regularly shows poor results for Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his ministers.

The coalition is seen as being engaged in constant quarrels, incapable of action. Even the government's quick and unanimous reaction to the deadly knife attack in Solingen, in western Germany, shortly before the elections failed to make an impact. With an eye to the immigration debate during the electoral campaigns, the federal government last week announced stricter migration and security policies, and made a surprise move to deport 28 asylum-seekers who had committed criminal offenses to Afghanistan.

The AfD sees itself as having confirmed a broad support base. The state elections brought "historic" success for their party, AfD co-leader Alice Weidel said on Sunday, calling for the federal government to stand down.

"It is also a punishment for the federal government, it is a requiem for this coalition," she said. "The government in Berlin should ask itself if it can even continue to govern. This question of fresh elections should be posed at least following the [upcoming] election in Brandenburg, because things cannot carry on like this."

 

All eyes turn to Brandenburg

An election is scheduled in the eastern German state of Brandenburg for September 22. There, too, the AfD is leading in the polls, but closely followed by the Social Democrats. The SPD will be doing all they can to remain calm leading up to election day, because the vote will be crucial for them.

The party has led the government in Brandenburg since 1990. "I expect that everyone will make even more of an effort than ever before," said SPD co-leader Lars Klingbeil on Sunday evening in Berlin. The party needed to work together to win back votes, he said. "Everyone now needs to play their part so that things improve."

Despite the dismal results in Thuringia and Saxony, Chancellor Scholz can continue to count on the support of his party, said Klingbeil, rejecting discussions of personnel change in the SPD. The SPD leadership has emphasized that Scholz will lead the party into the next federal election.

This sense of unity could quickly crumble should Brandenburg's state premier of 11 years, Dietmar Woidke, fail to be reelected. In this case, rumors in the SPD may grow louder that Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who is much more popular than Scholz, could become the chancellor candidate for the federal election in September 2025.

Challenges for the coalition

Will the coalition of the SPD, Greens and FDP last until then? The dismal results in the state elections and miserable polling at the federal level haven't just affected their mood.

Within the individual parties, the calls for more visibility and a stronger profile are growing louder. "For my party, it will now also be a matter of becoming more emancipated and making it clearer what can only be achieved with the SPD, and that we will no longer allow [other parties] to walk all over us," said SPD secretary Kevin Kühnert.

Potential conflict areas include the 2025 budget, which must soon be decided in the Bundestag. It also remains to be seen whether the government will manage to implement its recently announced tightened migration policies. Some critical voices in the left wings of the SPD and Greens do not agree with the plans to restrict immigration.

None of the three governing parties can afford to let the coalition fail. If early nationwide elections were to be held, current polling shows they would no longer receive a majority. The winners would be their rivals the AfD and the Conservative Union of the Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian counterparts, the Christian Social Union (CSU). The Union, which makes up the largest opposition bloc in the Bundestag, has long called for the government to step down.

"The traffic light parties [German political term for the coalition, based on their party colors of red, yellow and green] have been punished," CDU national general secretary Carsten Linnemann said on Sunday. "A party of the chancellor which only has a single-figure result in two eastern states needs to ask itself whether it's still making policy for all the people of Germany."

The CDU/CSU will continue to increase the pressure on the federal government. They are not only calling for the announced changes to migration policy to be implemented quickly, but are also pushing for laws to be tightened further.

Following the knife attack in Solingen, CDU chairman Friedrich Merz spoke of an "overload limit" which had been exceeded in the country. He called on the federal government to declare a "national state of emergency" to be able to turn asylum-seekers away directly at the German border.

This article was originally written in German.

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