Tensions between Ethiopia and neighboring Eritrea have escalated after Ethiopian police said they had seized a lorry full of ammunition allegedly sent from Eritrea to Ethiopian Fano rebels based in Amhara state. Fano rebels have waged an insurgency against the Ethiopian military since 2023.

In response, Eritrea's Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel told Reuters Ethiopian Prime ​Minister ​Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party was looking for a pretext to attack Eritrea. He said the "regime is floating false flags to justify the war that it has been itching to unleash for two long years." 

The latest development comes amid a growing feud between Eritrea and Ethiopia over landlocked Ethiopia's lack of sea access.

Eritrea's 1993 independence left Ethiopia without direct access to the Red Sea, which Ethiopian Prime Minister Ahmed sees as a defining strategic constraint for Africa's second-most populous country. 

About 90% of Ethiopia's maritime trade now funnels through Djibouti, a dependence Ethiopian officials argue leaves the country exposed to rising costs, logistical choke points and shifting geopolitical alliances.

Eritrea–Ethiopia tensions reignite

Prime Minister Ahmed's public remarks over the past year have framed sea access as essential for Ethiopia's long-term economic and security interests. Ethiopian officials insist the campaign is diplomatic and economic in nature. In Eritrea, however, the language has come as a warning siren — and caused considerable anger.

Asmara views Assab, just 75 kilometers (46 miles) from the Ethiopian border, as a core pillar of sovereignty earned through a long independence struggle, which included a war with Ethiopia between 1998 and 2000 that killed tens of thousands.

Earlier this week, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki told state media that Ahmed's Prosperity Party had declared war on his country. He said Eritrea did not want war, but added: "We know how to ‍defend our nation."

Last year, Afwerki said any suggestion that Ethiopia might seek guaranteed access or influence over Eritrean ports is a challenge to that hard-won autonomy. Eritrean officials have also accused Addis Ababa of harboring expansionist ambitions, which Ethiopia denies.

However, Bayisa Wak-Woya, a former United Nations diplomat of Ethiopian origin, told DW despite the sharp exchanges, he does not believe conditions exist "for Ethiopia and Eritrea to go into an all-out war at this stage."

Assab's significance stretches far beyond bilateral history. It sits near the southern entrance of the Red Sea, and lies close to one of the world's busiest maritime corridors, a choke point linking Europe, the Middle East and Asia.

During Ethiopia's imperial and socialist eras, it served as a key outlet for Ethiopian trade. Since Eritrea's independence, commercial activity has been limited, but its geopolitical value has not diminished.

A communique published by the Prosperity Party called Ethiopia's desire for sea access "just" and "legitimate" and that "sustained pressure has been exerted to seize Ethiopia's maritime territories and deny it access to the sea."

Analysts say Ethiopia's renewed desire for maritime access has pushed Assab back into the center of strategic calculations, even in the absence of formal territorial claims.

2018 deal a distant memory

With the optimism following the 2018 peace agreement between Ahmedy and Afwerki largely faded, Eritrea has accused Ethiopia of undermining regional stability, while Ethiopia has alleged that Eritrea supports armed groups hostile to Addis Ababa.

Eritrea's withdrawal from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in mid-December 2025 was widely interpreted as a pointed rebuke, reflecting frustration with what Asmara sees as selective silence inside the regional trade bloc.

At the time, United Nations chief Antonio Guterres urged both nations to "recommit to the vision of lasting peace and the respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity" under the Algiers Agreement.

Political analyst Daniel Teklai says when issues touching directly on Eritrea's sovereignty were raised, the organization remained "silent." 

The standoff revives fears of renewed instability in a region only recently emerging from overlapping conflicts, including Ethiopia's devastating war in Tigray.

A direct confrontation between Addis Ababa and Asmara would risk disrupting trade routes, security cooperation and fragile political transitions across the Horn of Africa.

A war for access to the Red Sea?

Wak-Woya noted that Assab remains deeply embedded in Ethiopia's political imagination, arguing the issue "will never disappear from the political arena," particularly among older generations who continue to struggle with the reality of Eritrea's independence.

A military takeover of Assab would be "illegal," Wak-Woya said.

Abiy, however, also told lawmakers a renewed conflict was not his intent.

"We have no intention of going to war, rather we firmly believe the issue can be resolved peacefully," he told Ethiopia's parliament in December 2025. 

International affairs expert Paul Ejime says Ethiopia's influence within IGAD has long fueled Eritrean suspicion, reinforcing Asmara's belief that it has been sidelined within the bloc.

He says tensions are likely to persist because Ethiopia and Eritrea are contiguous, divided by what he describes as "almost artificial boundaries," and warns that without sustained diplomatic engagement, confrontation could harden into something more dangerous.

Edited by: Cai Nebe