Poland's State Election Commission announced on Monday morning that the right-wing conservative historian and euroskeptic Karol Nawrocki had received 50.89% of the vote in Sunday's presidential runoff, putting him marginally ahead of his liberal-conservative, pro-European rival, Rafal Trzaskowski, on 49.11%.

Nawrocki will be inaugurated in August, succeeding President Andrzej Duda, who, after two terms in office, was no longer able to run for president.

Nawrocki, a 42-year-old historian from Gdansk, was nominated by the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party. PiS presented Nawrocki as a non-partisan, independent "citizens' candidate" although his campaign was paid for and organized by the party and his program aligned with that of PiS.

"We have succeeded in uniting the entire patriotic camp," said Nawrocki, who went on to say that a "Poland without migrants" was his political objective.

"We won because we were right," added PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski.

Supporters of the Confederation Liberty and Independence party, which has an ultranationalist and an economic libertarian wing, also voted for Nawrocki. Most supporters of Grzegorz Braun, a hard-right, antisemitic politician, backed Nawrocki at the ballot box, too.  

Bitter blow for the government

Trzaskowski was the candidate of the liberal-conservative Civic Platform (PO) of Prime Minister Donald Tusk. The 53-year-old mayor of Warsaw was also backed by other parties in the ruling coalition, the Third Way (TD) and the New Left.

His surprising defeat is a major blow for Tusk's government.

During his election campaign, Nawrocki made no bones of the fact that he intends to continue President Duda's policy of obstructing the government. In the 18 months since Tusk returned to power, Duda has often used his veto powers to block government reforms, especially those relating to the restoration of the rule of law.

"Nawrocki will apply the handbrake in terms of domestic policies and will make life difficult for the government," political scientist Barbara Brodzinska-Mirowska told broadcaster TVN on Sunday evening.

Where does Nawrocki stand on key foreign policy issues?

It is also likely that Nawrocki will narrow the government's room to maneuver in terms of foreign policy.

According to the constitution, the Polish president is not only commander-in-chief of the armed forces, he also has a say in foreign policy.

Nawrocki's stance on core foreign policy issues clashes with those of the government.

During his election campaign, he spoke out against Ukraine joining NATO and in favor of attaching conditions to the country's EU accession. In terms of security, the president-elect favors relying on the US, is a euroskeptic and mistrusts Berlin. He also wants to continue efforts to get Germany to pay war reparations to Poland.

"Poland is facing the Hungarian scenario," said sociologist Robert Sobiech, who warned that with Nawrocki, Poland will distance itself from Europe, as Hungary has under Prime Minister Viktor Orban, and that PiS could — together with the ultra-right Confederation Liberty and Independence party — return to power in 2027.

An emotional roller coaster

Both candidates were on an emotional roller coaster from the moment the polling stations closed at 9 p.m. CET. The first exit poll indicated that Trzaskowski (50.3%) had a wafer-thin lead over Nawrocki (49.7%).

"We've won!" declared Trzaskowski, who promised to start implementing his program "like a torpedo" and pledged to extend a hand to all those who voted for his opponent.

But the euphoria in his team didn't last long. Another poll released two hours later, which included the results from some polling stations, reversed the predicted outcome.

An initial analysis indicates that it was above all men and people aged 29 and younger who voted for Nawrocki, while women and older people backed Trzaskowski.

Numerous scandals did not stop Nawrocki

In recent months, the media have made a series of major accusations against Nawrocki, who has been head of Poland's Institute of National Remembrance (IPN) since 2021.

He was accused of having had ties to people in the hooligan scene and the criminal underworld and of having bought a social housing apartment from a destitute, alcohol-dependent man by dishonest means.

Nawrocki admitted taking part in a pre-arranged mass brawl between the fans of two rival football clubs.

The online platform ONET claimed that while working for a security company as a student, Nawrocki organized prostitutes for guests at a luxury hotel in Sopot on the Baltic coast.

But none of these reports derailed Nawrocki's bid for the presidency.

Writer Slawomir Sierakowski spoke of the "boomerang effect," explaining that the "intrusive highlighting" of these stories in the media actually strengthened a feeling of solidarity with the candidate.

Jacek Nizinkiewicz of the newspaper Rzeczpospolita on Monday called the outcome a "political earthquake."

"Things will not calm down after the election. Poland has been so deeply divided for two decades that the new president will not fill in these trenches," wrote Nizinkiewicz. "It is to be feared that the opposite will be the case."

This article was originally published in German.