The pressure to make a decision regarding Germany's military mission in Mali is increasing with every day that passes. German troops have been stationed in the West African state for nine years. However, their success in the fight against terrorism in the Sahel region has been limited, while the risks for the troops are high.

After returning from a visit to the country this week, Katja Keul, minister of state at the Foreign Ministry, called for "acceptable suggestions" and a "timetable for a return to democracy." She told the media group Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland that otherwise Germany would not be able "to continue its support." 

Coupled with similar remarks from German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, this constitutes a clear signal to Mali's military junta, which last month announced that it would postpone elections that were due in February for up to five years.

General public support

A potential withdrawal of the German Bundeswehr's mission in Mali is also under debate in the country itself.

Generally, Germany's military presence has the support of the population, which is not necessarily the case for other armies posted in the country, particularly France's.

But some Malians say that Germany should make a decision.

"The Germans have a right to stay but if they want to leave with France then they should just go," said Aboubacar, who lives in Mopti in central Mali.

His friend Bouba says he sees the Germans as friends, even if they do decide to go. "If Germany decides to make that decision, I think it is because it has forgotten what it was before today, " he said. "Germany was the first country, well before Russia, to recognize an independent, free and sovereign Mali."

Growing skepticism

In political circles in the German capital, doubts regarding the Bundeswehr mission continue to grow. Germany currently has some 300 troops in Mali as part of the EU training mission EUTM and about 1,000 in the UN peacekeeping mission MINUSMA. The mandates for both missions are due to expire at the end of May. There is increasing skepticism as to whether the missions can achieve the goal of securing peace and stabilizing the country after the putsches of 2020 and 2021, amid a number of problems.

Among other things, there are political tensions between the military junta in Mali and France, the former colonial power, and the regime is generally hostile toward international actors in the country. Mali recently expelled the French ambassador and ordered Danish troops to withdraw. It also temporarily banned German military planes from flying over its territory.

Confidence in own troops

Such moves led to German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD) recently telling German media she did not "have the impression that we are welcome any longer" and that it was therefore difficult to imagine the mission being pursued.

For his part, Kassim Keita, who is a member of Mali's National Transitional Council (CNT), welcomed Germany's efforts over the years to maintain good bilateral relations.

But he said that there would be nothing to worry about if the Bundeswehr did withdraw its troops: "Mali has well-trained soldiers who can continue to provide security, which they have already started doing."

Poor results

Denis Tull from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) was less confident about the level of training of Malian troops. He said that the EU did not know what it had achieved with the EUTM because there was a lack of instruments for evaluating the results. "This is a reprehensible state of affairs because people are operating according to a principle of hope only," he said.

Ulf Laessing, the head of the Regional Program Sahel at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Mali, shared this perspective. "Germany and the other Western states had very few concrete ideas of what they might achieve here on the ground with a military mission as part of the Blue Helmet operation," he told DW. "There were very optimistic expectations that they could help build a state, like in Afghanistan." And though it had quickly become apparent that there were a number of hurdles, no adjustments had been made, he said.

For this reason, he said, the results of the training mission were very modest. "On the one hand, the Malian army is capable of being trained only to a limited extent; on the other, the product is also not that interesting for the Malians," he said. The training academy on the outskirts of Bamako was far from the front, he explained, and also had a high fluctuation of trainers. Moreover, there was little cooperation between the EU member states overall, he criticized.

For Denis Tull, the international community's involvement since 2013 has shown very poor results, and the countless warnings are therefore justified. He said that although the extension of the mandate had gone through in the Bundestag last year with relative ease, "since then, the Afghanistan fiasco has hit Germany and the world, and there is much more questioning of the efficacy of foreign missions."

He predicted that the training of soldiers would probably end but that the UN mission would go on. However, he said that Mali could not be stabilized through military interventions alone.

"Despite its sharp rhetoric, the Malian government is prepared to negotiate and to reach out to its partners," he said. According to Tull, it knows that it will otherwise become dependent and isolated.  

Mahamadou Kane in Mali contributed to this article, which was translated from German.