US-Russian relations have become noticeably worse since both countries' leaders met in Hamburg in July. So, will they meet at the APEC summit? Conflicting answers have emerged.
Putin and Trump's highly anticipated first meeting as presidential counterparts came at the G20 summit in Hamburg in July 2017Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/E. Vucci
Advertisement
Will President Trump and President Putin meet on the sidelines of the APEC summit or not? It appeared on Friday as if both sides were still trying to discern if such a move would be worth the effort.
The Kremlin initially reacted positively to the idea of a meeting, put forth by US President Trump about a week ago, but Russian confirmation was slow in coming. However, shortly after the US leader disembarked Air Force One in Vietnam on Friday, the White House told reporters no formal meeting would take place between President Trump and President Putin.
Russian media, however, quoted a Kremlin spokesperson less than an hour later saying, "Discussions continue. There is no clarity yet." His comments were in line with what the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs had already indicated concerning the matter on Thursday.
Push and pull
"I think President Trump is eager to meet, whereas President Putin has taken a wait and see approach to the USA," as Mark Simakovsky, a senior fellow at the US think tank Atlantic Council, told DW. Relations between the two countries have deteriorated steadily in the wake of Russia's annexation of Crimea; during last year's US presidential elections Trump promised to improve them. Simakovsky says that Trump wants to make good on the promise but he is hemmed in by domestic scandals related to Russia.
The man behind the mask? Since its inception, Trump's administration has been dogged by accusations of collusion with Putin's inner circleImage: Getty Images/S. Platt
Russian President Putin, for his part, does not seem to put much faith in the prospect of improved relations, especially considering the fact that the US president does not have the power to unilaterally lift sanctions placed on Russia by the US Congress. When Trump was elected president one year ago, champagne corks were popping in the Russian parliament. But that euphoria has since subsided and many Russian representatives seriously doubt whether Trump will even be capable of forging any agreements right now. Therefore, the Vietnam meeting will present "very little chance of producing concrete results," according to Simakovsky. "In a way, Trump and Putin are like planets that are far away from one another, yet they have both been drawn into the same orbit and are being pulled toward one another."
At this July's G20 summit in Hamburg, the two had their first meeting since Trump's election, and both sides seemed pleased. Putin praised the meeting, saying that it had given the men the chance to establish a personal relationship. Still, the events that soon followed would seem to have put that fresh relationship to the test.
A timeline of the Russia investigation
Allegations of collusion with the Kremlin have dogged Team Trump since the 2016 election campaign. DW takes a look at how special counsel Robert Mueller's Russia investigation unfolded.
Image: Reuters/L. Downing
2013: Mr. Trump goes to Russia
June 18, 2013. Donald Trump tweeted: "The Miss Universe Pageant will be broadcast live from MOSCOW, RUSSIA on November 9. A big deal that will bring our countries together!" He later added: "Do you think Putin will be going - if so, will he become my new best friend?" October 17, 2013 Trump tells chat show host David Letterman he has conducted "a lot of business with the Russians."
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/V. Prokofyev
September 2015: Hacking allegations raised
An FBI agent tells a tech-support contractor at the Democratic National Committee it may have been hacked. On May 18, 2016, James Clapper, the director of National Intelligence, says there were "some indications" of cyberattacks aimed at the presidential campaigns. On June 14, 2016 the DNC announces it had been the victim of an attack by Russian hackers.
Image: picture alliance/MAXPPP/R. Brunel
July 20, 2016: Kislyak enters the picture
Senator Jeff Sessions — an early Trump endorser who led his national security advisory committee — meets Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak and a group of other ambassadors at a Republican National Convention event.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/B. Smialowski
July 22, 2016: Assange thickens the plot
Julian Assange's WikiLeaks publishes 20,000 emails stolen from the DNC, appearing to show a preference for Hillary Clinton over Senator Bernie Sanders.
Image: Reuters/N. Hall
July 25, 2016: Cometh the hour, Comey the man
The FBI announces it is investigating the DNC hack saying "a compromise of this nature is something we take very seriously."
Image: Getty Images/AFP/B. Smialowski
November 8, 2016: Trump elected
Donald Trump is elected president of the United States. On November 9, the Russian parliament burst into applause at the news.
Image: Reuters/K. Lamarque
November 10, 2016: Team Trump denies Russia link
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Rybakov says there "were contacts" between the Russian government and the Trump campaign during the election campaign. The Trump campaign issues a firm denial.
Image: Imago/Itar-Tass
November 18, 2016: Flynn appointed
Trump names General Michael Flynn as his national security adviser. The former Defense Intelligence Agency chief was a top foreign policy adviser in Trump's campaign. Flynn resigned in February after failing to disclose full details of his communication with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak.
Image: Reuters/C. Barria
January 26, 2017: Yates - 'The center cannot hold'
Acting Attorney General Sally Yates tells White House counsel Don McGahn that Flynn made false statements regarding his calls with Kislyak. On January 30, Trump fires Yates for refusing to enforce his travel ban, which was later blocked by federal courts.
Image: Getty Images/P. Marovich
March 2, 2017: Sessions recuses himself
Trump says he has "total confidence" in Attorney General Jeff Sessions. Sessions announces he will recuse himself from any investigation into ties between Russia and the Trump campaign.
Image: Getty Images/S.Loeb
March 20, 2017: FBI examines Trump-Kremlin links
FBI Director James Comey confirms before the House Select Committee on Intelligence that the FBI was investigating possible links between Russia and the Trump campaign.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/AP/J. S. Applewhite
May 9, 2017: Trump sacks Comey
In a letter announcing the termination, Trump writes: "While I greatly appreciate you informing me, on three separate occasions, that I am not under investigation, I nevertheless concur with the judgment of the Department of Justice that you are not able to effectively lead the Bureau."
Image: Reuters/J. Ernst/K. Lamarque
May 17, 2017: Mueller appointed special counsel
Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein appoints former FBI Director Robert Mueller to look into Russia's interference in the 2016 election and possible collusion with the Trump campaign.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/J.S. Applewhite
August 2017: FBI seizes documents from Manafort
Shortly after Mueller convenes a grand jury for the investigation, the FBI seizes documents from one of Paul Manafort's properties as part of a raid for Mueller's probe. The former Trump campaigner manager stepped down in August 2016 after allegations surfaced that he had received large payments linked to Ukraine's former pro-Russian government.
Image: Imago
September 2017: Trump Jr.'s talks to Senate committee
Donald Trump Jr. tells the Senate Judiciary Committee he has not colluded with a foreign government. The closed-door interview relates to his June 2016 meeting with Russian lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya, which was also attended by his brother-in-law, Jared Kushner, and then-campaign manager Paul Manafort. Trump Jr.’s emails, however, suggest the meeting was supposed to produce dirt on Clinton.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo/K. Willens
October 2017: Internet giants allege Russian interference
Facebook, Twitter and Google reportedly tell US media they have evidence that Russian operatives exploited platforms to spread disinformation during the 2016 US presidential election. The three companies are appear before the Senate Intelligence Committee in November 2017.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/Lei
July 2018: Trump and Putin meet in Helsinki
Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet in Helsinki for their first-ever summit. During the trip, Trump publically contradicts the findings of US intelligence agencies who concluded that Russia interfered in the 2016 presidential election.
November 8, 2018: Sessions resigns as attorney general
Attorney General Jeff Sessions resigns from his post, under reported pressure from Trump. The president then appoints a critic of the Mueller probe as his successor, but later nominates William Barr to be the next attorney general in December 2018.
Image: picture-alliance/AP/A. Brandon
November 29, 2018: Former Trump lawyer pleads guilty
Trump's former long-time personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, pleads guilty to lying to Congress about discussions in 2016 on plans to build a Trump Tower in Moscow. The FBI raided his home earlier that year in April. He would later be sentenced to three years in prison. In 2019, he tells Congress that Trump is a "racist" and a "con man."
Image: Reuters/J. Ernst
January 2019: Trump associate Roger Stone arrested
Roger Stone, a longtime Trump associate and Republican operative, is arrested at his home in Florida for lying to Congress about having advance knowledge of plans by WikiLeaks to release emails from the Democratic Party that US officials say were stolen by Russia.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/AP Photo/L. Sladky
March 13, 2019: Manafort sentenced to prison
Manafort is found guilty of conspiracy charges and handed an additional sentence, bringing his total prison sentence to 7.5 years. In August 2018, a court in Virginia found him guilty of eight charges, including tax and bank fraud. He also pleaded guilty to two conspiracy counts.
Image: picture-alliance/AP/D. Verkouteren
March 22, 2019: Mueller ends Russia probe
Special counsel Robert Mueller submits a confidential 448-page report on the findings of his investigation to the US Justice Department. The main conclusions of the report are made public when they are given to Congress. A redacted version of the report is released to the public on April 18, though Democrats call for the full report to be released.
Image: picture-alliance/AP/C. Dharapak
March 24, 2019: Trump declares 'exoneration'
The final report concluded that no one involved in Trump's 2016 election campaign colluded with Russia. Attorney General William Barr said the report provided no evidence that Trump obstructed justice, but stopped short of fully exonerating the president. Reacting to the findings, Trump described the probe as an "illegal take-down that failed," and said there was "complete and total exoneration."
Image: Reuters/K. Lamarque
May 1, 2019: Barr testifies
In late March, Mueller writes a letter expressing concerns over the way Barr portrayed his report. The attorney general says the special counsel's letter was "a bit snitty" while testifying in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee in May. Barr then cancels a subsequent appearance before the House Judicial Committee, citing "unprecedented and unnecessary" hearing conditions.
Image: Getty Images/A. Wong
July 24, 2019: Mueller light
Robert Mueller's congressional testimony on the Russia probe was again inconclusive. He sometimes struggled with his answers or avoided queries. To the Democrats frustration he appeared to do little to give any encouragement to the notion that President Trump could be impeached, though he did suggest he might be prosecuted for obstruction of justice crimes after he leaves the White House.
Image: Reuters/J. Ernst
25 images1 | 25
In late July, the US Congress passed tough new sanctions against Russia, putting it into the same category as North Korea and Iran. The sanctions were put in place in response to Russia's meddling in the 2016 US elections as well as its aggressions in Ukraine. Moscow retaliated almost simultaneously, expelling more than 750 US diplomats. Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the move was in response to "diverse hostile actions taken by Washington." Among those actions was a decision taken by the outgoing Obama administration, in which it expelled dozens of Russian diplomats from the US. Initially, Russia declined to answer in kind, in order to not sour relations with the incoming Trump administration.
In late August of this year, the US answered the expulsion of its diplomats by forcing Russia to shut down its San Francisco consulate within a matter of days, causing great irritation in Moscow. Some pundits on Russian state-run media warned: "it smells like war." Thus far, however, President Putin has resisted making any new diplomatic counterattacks, nor has he been vocally critical. The Kremlin has instead portrayed Trump as a victim of domestic political conflict. "Both sides are reserved in their rhetoric," says Andrey Kortunov, director general of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), a government-linked think tank. "Apparently the Russian side has decided against burning bridges in order to avoid further diplomatic escalation and to keep the possibility for dialogue open," Kortunov told DW.
North Korea at the top of the list
When Trump and Putin meet there will be no shortage of topics to discuss. According to Kortunov, Moscow's wish list is comprised of a complete return to diplomatic and military dialogue with Washington as well as discussions on the future of the INF Treaty on intermediate-range nuclear missiles. Russia says it is also willing to discuss global trouble spots.
When Trump announced his desire to meet Putin in Vietnam, he, too, presented three topics that he hoped to discuss: North Korea, Ukraine and Syria. Experts agree that North Korea, above all, will likely dominate the talks. Although Washington and Moscow have both condemned North Korea's most recent nuclear tests, Russia, alongside China, has argued for a diplomatic solution to the issue, one that also makes concessions to Pyongyang. Trump, for his part, has repeatedly threatened military attacks.
There are also a great many differences when it comes to the issue of Ukraine. Recently, the international community broached the concept of deploying UN peacekeeping troops to separatist-held areas in Eastern Ukraine, which Kyiv once again declared territories occupied by Russia. Kortunov told DW that the prospects of a breakthrough were greatly lessened by statements recently given by the new US special representative to Ukraine, Kurt Volker. The US diplomat rejected the idea of Russian participation in the peacekeeping mission as well as direct negotiations with the separatists.
Loss of trust is a major obstacle
Finally, Trump and Putin will certainly address the issue of the Iran nuclear deal, from which the US president has threatened to pull out. Here, too, the differences could hardly be greater. Putin recently traveled to Tehran to demonstrate his support for the Islamic Republic's leadership.
US expert Simakovsky says that the biggest obstacle to improving relations between Washington and Moscow is simply a lack of trust. Nevertheless, says Kortunov, Moscow will not cease to seek dialogue. Even though the likelihood of success may be minimal, he says, talks will continue.
