Home minister P. Chidambaram and Maoist leader Koteshwar Rao alias Kishenji exchanged numbers on Tuesday even as they refused to talk to each other a day after the fearsome Maoist leader proposed a conditional ceasefire. The home minister rejected the offer, saying the government would not accept any "ifs and buts" for talks, and instead asked the outlawed Communist Party of India (Maoist) to come out with a statement pledging to "abjure violence".

Just after Kishenji's offer, armed Left-wing rebels attacked a police camp in West Bengal's West Midnapore district. Officials saw this development as a sign that the Maoists could not be trusted, while others hinted at a rift in the rebel ranks.

Military offensive

The truce offer comes as a massive military offensive to eliminate the Maoists has been launched in the rebel strongholds of Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Jharkhand, Bihar and West Bengal, worst-hit by the insurgency. The operation is expected to involve nearly 20,000 specially trained personnel drawn from the paramilitary and state police forces..

However, civil society groups have argued that the collateral damage to deprived tribal populations in these strongholds could be immense and alienate them even further from the state.

Himanshi Kumar, a social activist from Dantewada, a Maoist hotbed in Chhattisgarh, was forced to flee from the place after 17 years. He says it is not the Maoists who are the chief perpetrators of "violence on the people".

"You see the tribals are now considering the Indian state as an offender, an aggressor," says Kumar. "In these situations they are considering Naxalites as their protectors. It should not have happened, but this is the reality."

Discontent among villagers

Last year alone, Maoist violence accounted for over 1100 deaths, the largest seen in recent years. Linga, a tribal from Chhattisgarh, was forced to flee his village after being dubbed a Maoist supporter.

"People are not happy with the steps taken by the security forces and the state administration," he says. "The steps they have taken have not helped. Villagers are picking up guns and joining the Maoists. We have to fight for our dignity. We simply have not got justice. More and more people are not supporting the government and instead joining the Maoists."

There have been words of restraint even from security experts, like Ajay Sahni. "Now we do not have the capacities to hold the entire affected areas in these 5-6 badly affected states," he cautions. "We cannot hold all of them down. So basically what you are going to do is squeeze in one area and cause an escalation in other areas. And you are going to cause a tremendous escalation in terms of IED attacks, ambushes against security forces in transit in wide areas and possible escalation of violence against civilians as well."

This particular phase could well be the proverbial lull before the storm.

Author: Murali Krishnan (New Delhi)
Editor: Thomas Baerthlein