The leader of the United Democratic Front against Dictatorship (UDD), also known as the Red Shirts, has warned of protests if the opposition party, the Puea Thai Party, is denied the chance of overseeing the next government if it wins the forthcoming elections on July 3.

Leader of Thailand’s Red Shirt movement, Thida Thavornseth, says the backers of the governing Democrat Party, led by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, should allow the opposition Puea Thai Party to have the chance to form the next government if it wins the most seats in the July 3 election.

Mrs. Thida in an interview said the backers, which include people from the military and government institutions, could face fresh protests if they failed to allow the party to take power after the July 3 vote. She said if the Puea Thai win in fair elections and are blocked from entering government then the Red Shirts will put up a fight.

Red Shirt movement

The Red Shirt movement led protests in 2010 calling for elections and the downfall of the Abhisit government. The protests were suppressed by the military on May 19.

The opposition Puea Thai Party is led by Yingluck Shinawatra, younger sister of former leader, Thaksin Shinawatra, ousted from office in 2006 by a military coup. Thaksin remains overseas after fleeing Thailand in 2008 in the face of corruption charges. He faces a two year jail sentence.

In recent interviews Thaksin has sought to distance himself from the campaign despite his widespread popularity among the working class and rural poor from populist policies when he was in power. The urban middle class, supporters of the Democrat Party, accused him of corruption and abuse of power.

Accusations of corruption

But Mrs. Thida says by backing his sister Yingluck to lead the party, Thaksin has challenged the Democrats and its backers in a quest for power. She says, "Thaksin Shinawatra wants to tell Thai society and the world also that now he will fight like openly. Yingluck means Thaksin after so many things that have happed in the last five years. I guess that Thaksin said this time he will not escape ... send a message to Thai society that the candidate is Thaksin Shinsawatra."

Accusations of disloyalty

Some analysts have accused Thaksin and his supporters of being disloyal to the Thai Royal Family, led by the ailing but respected 83 year old King Bhumipol Adulyadej.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, warns of further political uncertainties in Thailand if the Puea Thai Party is not able to take up government if it wins the most seats in the July 3 general election. He says while it looks like "they have a good shot at winning, it’s just a matter of winning by how much." He says if the Puea Thai Party does not win by enough, they will be denied power. On the other hand, if they win by enough of a margin and are still denied power, "then we’ll have some trouble."

The Thai election for the 500 seat House of Representatives will he held on July 3. It comes almost four years since the last poll in 2007, which was won by a pro-Thaksin party. But court rulings against the vote led military-backed Abhsit Vejjajiva and his Democrat Party to take over the government.

Author: Ron Corben
Editor: Sarah Berning