Brexit opponents have begun pushing for a new referendum in the hopes that British voters have had a change of heart about leaving the European Union. That may be the case, reports Samira Shackle from London.
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At the end of December, former Labour minister Andrew Adonis resigned from his position as chair of the government-backed National Infrastructure Commission. His strongly worded resignation letter made his reasons clear: "The European Union withdrawal bill is the worst legislation of my lifetime," he wrote. "It arrives soon in the House of Lords and I feel duty bound to oppose it relentlessly from the Labour benches."
In the month that has passed since, Adonis has dedicated himself to campaigning for a second referendum on Brexit, introducing a proposal in the House of Lords and this week launching a nationwide tour to convince the public.
Brexit talks began in June and both sides have been frustrated at the lack of progress. DW has taken a look at key issues being debated in Brussels as the clock ticks toward Britain's scheduled departure in March 2019.
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Two phases
EU leaders agreed to negotiating guidelines during a summit in April 2017 that divided the divorce talks into two phases. Phase I, in which both sides aimed to settle the basic terms of Britain's departure, started in July and ended with an agreement on "sufficient progress" in December. Officials are now holding Phase II negotiations on the post-Brexit relationship between Britain and the EU.
Image: Reuters/File Photo/Y. Herman
The "Brexit Bill"
London agreed to a formula for calculating what it owes in its "divorce bill" to the EU in early December after months of haggling by British officials. The current EU budget expires in 2022 and EU officials have said the divorce bill will cover financial obligations Britain had committed to before triggering article 50. The final bill will reportedly total around £50 billion (€67 billion).
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Citizens' rights
Both sides agreed in early December that the 3 million EU citizens currently in Britain and the 1.1 million British citizens in the EU keep their residency rights after Brexit. British courts will have immediate jurisdiction over EU citizens living in Britain. But the EU's highest court, the ECJ, can hear cases until 2027 if British judges refer unclear cases to them.
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The Irish border
Britain and the EU also agreed in December that no border checks between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland would return post-Brexit. How feasible the commitment will be is unclear, as Britain's commitment to leaving the EU Single Market and Customs Union makes it difficult to avoid customs checks at the Irish border.
Image: Reuters/C. Kilcoyne
Transition period
Theresa May envisages a two-year transition period after March 2019. Both sides still have to hash out the details of the transition period in Phase II, including the exact end-date, whether new EU laws passed during the period will apply to Britain, and whether Britain can negotiate its own free trade deals. British officials hope to agree on the terms of the transition by March 2018.
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Trade
May has repeatedly said Britain will leave the European Single Market and the EU Customs Union. Leaving both could disrupt British-EU trade, but allow Britain to negotiate its own free trade deals and restrict EU migration — key demands by pro-Brexit politicians. London has said it wants to negotiate a new EU-UK trade deal during Phase II to minimize trade disruption before March 2019.
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Immigration
Britain has also vowed to restrict EU migration into Britain after Brexit. However, some British lawmakers are wary that a sharp drop in immigration could lead to shortfalls in key sectors, including health, social care and construction. The EU has warned that Single Market access is out of the question if London decides to restrict the ability of its citizens to live and work in Britain.
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Security
Recent terror attacks across Europe including a string in Britain underline both sides' support for continued security cooperation after March 2019. But access to EU institutions such as Europol and programs such as the European Arrest Warrant require compliance with EU laws. Whether Britain will still be compliant after it leaves is unclear.
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Calls for a second public vote have long been dismissed by politicians; both conservative Prime Minister Theresa May and opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn, head of the Labour party, have, at different points, ruled out the possibility. Any talk of a second referendum has been portrayed in the right-wing media as anti-democratic, a cause promoted by "out-of-touch Remoaners." Yet it might not be out of touch after all. A January poll by ICM and the Guardian found a 16-point margin in favor of a referendum on the terms of the final Brexit deal.
A sitting member of the House of Lords, Adonis is hardly the ideal figurehead given the criticism of Remain supporters being elitist. On his tour around the country, he is being accompanied by a group of young anti-Brexit activists. Femi Oluwole, co-founder of "Our Future, Our Choice," is one of these activists. He recently quit a traineeship at the EU Fundamental Rights Agency to campaign to stop Brexit.
"I know what's coming if Brexit happens, and if I look back in 20 years, and I haven't done everything in my power to stop it, I'd hate myself," Oluwule told DW. "The fact is, the under-55 population of the UK voted to remain in the EU. If Brexit is supposed to mean making 'all our own laws' and negotiating 'all our own trade deals,' then Brexit can't be completed in less than 20 years. By anyone's maths, by 2021 we're a "remain" country, based purely on age statistics."
New referendum is an outside possibility
Until recent weeks, the whole idea of a second referendum seemed preposterous. But it remains an outside possibility as the clock ticks and political pressure over the Brexit deal mounts.
The UK Parliament has rejected British Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal. If it were up to us, there wouldn't have been a Brexit fuss in the first place. Here are 10 reasons why we don't want to lose the UK.
Image: Getty Images/Stuart C. Wilson/Universal Pictures Home Entertainment
We love the Royals
Queen Elizabeth II is Britain's longest reigning monarch. She has been Queen since 1952 and has come to symbolize continuity and stability, tradition and self-discipline. Walking two steps behind her is usually the love of her life, her husband Prince Philip. This year she turned 93, and he is 98.
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We love pop music from Britain
The Rolling Stones: Mick Jagger, Charlie Watts, Keith Richards and Ron Wood pose at Havana Airport in Cuba. The veteran British band performed there for the first time on March 24, 2016 — writing music history.
Image: picture alliance/AP Images/R. Espinosa
We love the British capital and its sights
Tower Bridge in the center of London has been one of the city's most famous landmarks since 1894. London is among Europe's most popular travel destinations, drawing more than 30 million tourists each year.
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We love British writers and the protagonists of their books
The adventures of the young wizard invented by J. K. Rowling have found fans all over the world. This picture shows Harry Potter, played by Daniel Radcliffe, in his second year of training at the Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry.
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We love beautiful British models
Naomi Campbell has been a key face in the international fashion business for almost three decades. Born in London, she was the first black model to be shown on the cover of French edition of Vogue magazine. She was one of the six models of the 1990s to be declared supermodels.
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We love British humor
Few people can make us laugh like Rowan Atkinson, alias Mr. Bean, does. The Mr. Bean comedy series was produced from 1989 to 1995 and has a cult following.
Image: Getty Images/Stuart C. Wilson/Universal Pictures Home Entertainment
We love Britain's great gardens and parks
Kew Gardens in southwestern London are one of the world's oldest botanic gardens. The British are famous for their gardening skills and are regarded as experts in cultivating immaculate lawns. Arguably, no other country in Europe has such lovely gardens.
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We love British style
The focus is not on speed, but on elegance and class. The famous British understatement is also evident in Britain's luxury cars, like the Rolls-Royce. The company was bought by Germans, but it remains a British classic.
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We love their somewhat strange taste
There are certainly other European countries that are more famous for their cuisine. But if the British don't leave us, we'll never complain about their warm beer or lamb with mint sauce again. We promise!
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We love their traditions
The British taught us how enjoyable sightseeing can be. London's double-decker buses are more than a means of transportation. They still characterize the appearance of the British metropolis on the Thames.
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"A second referendum is still a long shot, but it is gathering momentum and it looks more likely than it has at any time before — partly because the government is at serious risk of splitting as reality bites around reconciling the promises they've made on leaving the customs union and having no border in Ireland," said Polly Mackenzie, director of the think tank Demos. "If that splits the government in a way that triggers a crisis, then a second referendum maybe the only way forward."
In mid-January, Brexit campaign leader Nigel Farage appeared to advocate a second vote — although he later backtracked from this, saying he'd only meant that "Leave" supporters should prepare for the possibility. Adonis recently unearthed some 2011 comments by Brexit-supporting Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg: "We could have two referendums," he said. "As it happens, it might make more sense to have the second referendum after the renegotiation is completed."
Remainers only hope is a new referendumImage: Getty Images/AFP/J. Edelson
Such statements from Brexit's most high-profile advocates certainly make it harder to portray a second referendum as a plot by "Remain" campaigners. "Saying we should ignore the legitimate result of the referendum is out of touch," says Mackenzie. "Saying we should ask people what they think cannot logically be out of touch — that's just a convenient argument to shut people up."
Conservatives split
Although Adonis and others are mobilizing to campaign for a second referendum, if it happens, it will most likely be because of splits in Westminster rather than political activism. "It all depends on whether the EU sticks to its guns on a final decision by autumn, or allows May to delay further," Tom Follett, policy and projects manager at think tank ResPublica, told DW. "Politicians waiting for a big change in opinion won't get it until May is forced once and for all to demonstrate that there is no 'have cake and eat it' option."
The question of Europe has long divided the Conservative Party, and these divisions are still very much present. In recent months, May has been attacked by Brexiteers such as Rees-Mogg, because, despite her tough rhetoric, her actions point to a softer Brexit. Meanwhile, Remain-supporting Tories such as Anna Soubry have also criticized the government. It might be that a second referendum is needed in order to get unity in parliament.
Andrew Adonis may not be the most appealing figure to lead the campaignImage: picture-alliance/ZUMAPRESS.com/T. Nicholson
"Going to the people could look like an attractive get-out for politicians facing a choice between a jobs-killing Brexit or a rule-taking relationship with the EU," added Follett. "It is then that Adonis's campaign will really matter because it establishes a second referendum as a 'serious' option. But by the time that big decision must happen, there could be very little opportunity left for parliament to arrange a referendum."
For his part, Oluwole plans to continue campaigning. "It is not democracy if the decision of the people is based on the lies of those who hold the power. For the most part, I don't blame people for voting Brexit. They listened to what their trusted politicians told them and did their best to make the right decision. However, we know that those most affected by Brexit voted against it. So we have a moral obligation to correct that injustice."
