Report: Global warming to surpass dangerous levels
September 29, 2016
Climate scientists have called on governments to 'double or triple' their efforts under the Paris agreement. The closer to the threshold of 2 degrees, the more severe the consequences, they warn.
Advertisement
Environmental scientists in cooperation with Argentina's Universal Ecological Fund on Thursday released a report stating global warming will breach a 2-degrees Celsius threshold by 2050 unless governments double their efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions.
The threshold could be reached despite pledges to curb emissions under the Paris agreement, said Robert Watson, former head of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), who co-authored the report
"We've really got a problem," Watson told Reuters news agency.
"If indeed these governments are serious about trying to hit the 2C mark, they really have to double or triple the effort of the current pledges made in Paris."
Scientists have forecast more severe heat waves, droughts and rising sea levels due to global warming, warning of mass migration and environmental catastrophes as a consequence.
Global greenhouse gas emissions amount to roughly 54 billion tons a year, although they are expected to be cut to 42 billion by 2030 under the agreement, according to the UN Environment Program (UNEP). World leaders decided on the 2C target in 2009 as a measure of global warming compared to pre-industrial levels.
While the report did not feature in a scientific journal, scientists working on global warming confirmed that the results were in line with current trends.
"It is a good summary of what is common knowledge in the climate expert community, but not widely appreciated by members of the public and even policy makers," said Stefan Rahmstorf, who heads earth system analysis at Germany's Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
"So indeed, it is a useful reminder to the world about what is at stake," he added.
Germany ratified the Paris accord on September 23.
This is what climate change looks like
To prevent disaster, global warming must be limited to a maximum of 2 degrees Celsius, climate experts say. Effects of climate change are plain to see - and they could be a taste of what's to come.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Flaming inferno
Some 10,500 firefighters were called to tackle forest fires in California in 2015. They were unable to prevent 1,400 homes from destruction. The blaze was fueled by hot and dry weather - as a result of climate change.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Vanishing hunting grounds
The polar bear has become a symbol of climate change, as its habitat is threatened by global warming. The Arctic predator hunts from ice sheets that are fast disappearing. As the ice retreats, they are unable to stalk their prey, and risk starvation. By 2050, scientists warn that the Arctic could be ice-free in summer.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Needle in a haystack
Just visible from the air is a little wood hut on the island of Spitzbergen in Norway. It is home to the Arctic research base where French and German scientists are studying climatic and atmospheric changes in the polar region, including the damage done to permafrost and glacier systems.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
No use bleating
A goat watches a mountain expedition on the Swiss Aletsch Glacier, a UNESCO World Heritage site. It was around a kilometer longer in 1860 than it is today. Due to global warming, the glacier is shrinking by up to 50 meters per year. With the rate of retreat increasing, scientists fear Europe's biggest glacier could disappear altogether.
Image: Reuters/D. Balibouse
Viewed from a safe distance …
… the landscape looks peaceful, bathed in a mystical light. But the actual situation is far more unsettling. This aerial view shows Central Luzon in the Philippines, completely flooded after it was hit by a typhoon and heavy rain. People were drowned or buried under landslides, and half a million were forced to flee their homes. The country is hit by 20 typhoons each year.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
When everything is lost …
… escape is all that's left. The World Bank warns that if global warming continues unimpeded, another 100 million people will be under threat. Poor people in parts of Africa and South Asia are at particular risk. Drought and flooding threaten crops - leading to hunger, disease and high food prices.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Children carry the burden
Climate change often hits children the hardest, through no fault of their own. Studies have found that economic problems exacerbated by drought can have profound social impacts, such as in an increase in child marriages, for example. Families may marry off their underage daughters earlier to have fewer mouths they have to feed.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/F. Malasig
'Renewable' elephants
Elephants produce huge quantities of manure. At Munich's Hellabrunn Zoo in Germany, one local utility is turning their waste into electric power. Around 2,000 tons of biowaste provides enough power for a hundred homes. Could this be a model for an African school? In any case, climate change is forcing new ways of thinking in the search for green energy.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo
Shipping out
The Rhine River is Europe's busiest waterway for shipping - but climate change is affecting business. Ongoing drought means shipping firms would be forced to use shorter vessels that can navigate shallower waters. If ships aren't able to set off, more goods have to be transported by road - which is more expensive.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Pale as a ghost
Healthy coral reefs are like a blooming garden. But global warming is bleaching the life out of them. Corals have a symbiotic relationship with algae, which are vital to their health. But as the water heats up, they expel the algae. If warmer water temperatures persist, a lack of nutrients calcifies the corals, which makes their color fade and causes the organisms to die.
Image: imago/blickwinkel
Vineyards heading north
Global warming also has its benefits. In recent years, wine is being produced on Germany's northernmost island, Sylt. Ever more vineyards are being established at higher altitudes and further north - even Scandinavia now has some. Global warming also means earlier harvests and sweeter grapes.