Even if you were keenly interested in the presidential election campaign you could be forgiven if you missed the first Republican debate televised live by Fox News last Thursday from Greenville, South Carolina.   

The field of five included the former CEO of a pizza delivery chain, a largely unknown former governor accompanied by an almost equally unknown former senator and the inescapable anti-government crusader Ron Paul. With the possible exception of Tim Pawlenty, a former Minnesota governor, none of the presidential wannabees debating in South Carolina are given any serious chance to win the Republican primary, let alone beat President Obama in next year's presidential election.     

The money quote on the event came from local Republican operative Bob McAlister who told Real Clear Politics:  "It's like a beauty contest where all the women are ugly."

To be sure, many big name Republicans probably chose not to take part in the debate in South Carolina because they fear getting in the race too early could mean they could also burn out too soon in what is a long-haul campaign.

Still, the fact that among a long list of Republican contenders no clear front runner has emerged shows that so far no conservative candidate has excited voters. What's more, many well-known contenders or candidates deemed electable by experts and pundits are still mulling a run or have declared outright that they won't. 

Trump's ascent

That void among Republican candidates explains the meteoric rise of real estate tycoon and reality TV star Donald Trump who in April suddenly topped the polls as a favorite Obama opponent with a crude rhetorical mixture of Obama bashing and economic breast-thumping.

That someone like Trump by way of a single TV interview could essentially steal the show from true blue Republican candidates, highlights the state of the Republican presidential field and raised eyebrows in the party establishment, argue election analysts. 

Christian Lammert, a professor of US domestic politics at the Free University of Berlin, calls Trump's quick rise a "media hype," that was possible because of the wide open field of Republican contenders.   

"My sense about Donald Trump is this is as much about Donald Trump and putting himself in the media's eye as it is about him running for president," David Redlawsk, an election expert at Rutgers University in New Brunswick, New Jersey, told Deutsche Welle.

Redlawsk and Lammert both believe that Trump's star is already fading again and don't think he stands a chance of becoming the Republican nominee.

Tea party challenge

They also point out that Republican candidates face an uphill battle in the 2012 election campaign. It's not just that running against an incumbent president especially if the economic situation rebounds as the election nears is always difficult. It's also that the arrival of the Tea Party movement has made a Republican campaign much more complicated.

For the first time Republican presidential candidates must not only cater to the two traditional wings of the party, one with a mostly economic-focused agenda, the other with a mainly social conservative bent, but they must also woo the broad spectrum of Libertarians and hard-line conservatives that have assembled under the influential Tea Party banner. In terms of a clear political platform, Tea Party supporters often don't share much more than that they feel alienated and disenfranchised from the political system.    

"No candidate can really appeal easily to all three of those at the same time," is how Redlawsk describes the Republican dilemma. "This is a particularly difficult time for the Republican Party. There really is a very obvious split."

Possible candidates that might appeal to the Tea Party movement like former Alaska governor Sarah Palin or Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachman are too divisive for mainstream voters. "They are not electable for the general electorate," says Lammert.

Wait for 2016

The upcoming Republican primaries could only make matters worse for candidates as the internal party polls tend to favor the most ideological candidates who then may have a hard time attracting more mainstream voters in the general election.

Given these internal hurdles among Republicans and the fact that President Obama is slated to raise a whopping one billion dollars for his reelection campaign, it is no wonder that two of the most viable contenders are mulling whether to sit this one out and wait instead for 2016 when Obama can't be reelected and Joe Biden will be too old to run himself.

Indiana governor Mitch Daniels and New Jersey governor Chris Christie have both not entered the race. While Daniels has said he will announce his decision soon, Christie has reiterated that he won't run. Both Daniels and Christie are considered fiscal conservatives with a popular appeal - a rare breed these days among Republicans.    

Other contenders are former House speaker Newt Gingrich, who officially declared his candidacy on Wednesday, and Rudy Guliani and Mike Huckabee who have yet to announce whether they are running. But experts think it unlikely that they could actually get the nomination, let alone beat Obama.

Remember 2008

The best serious Republican contender so far according to the polls is former Massachussetts governor Mitt Romney who failed to get the nomination in 2008.

However, his recent shift to the right and his Mormon faith could make it difficult for him to gain broad support.

So is the Republican struggle to beat Obama already a lost cause?

Not at all, say the experts. First, because a lot can still happen between now and election day in November 2012. Remember that this time in 2008 not Barack Obama, but Hillary Clinton was the top Democratic contender and Rudy Guliani, not John McCain led the Republican field.

And second, despite their internal differences the Republicans will ultimately come together and choose the candidate with the best chance of beating Obama. And with a little a bit of luck they might even make a real horse race out of it.   

Author: Michael Knigge
Editor: Rob Mudge