The day after Sunday's snap presidential election in Republika Srpska followed the usual script for elections in the Serb-majority entity within Bosnia-Herzegovina, with everyone claiming victory and no one conceding defeat.

Sinisa Karan, the candidate backed by ousted President Milorad Dodik's ruling Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), emerged victorious, with his supporters hailing his triumph.

The opposition, however, has rejected the result, accusing the SNSD of what it says is yet another case of electoral fraud, something it claims happens in every election in the entity.

SNSD officials, on the other hand, claim the election result shows that foreign actors and the Office of the High Representative, which is tasked with enforcing the Dayton Agreement in Bosnia-Herzegovina, are not welcome in Republika Srpska.

Dodik comes out on top — again

The snap presidential election took place almost exactly three months after Bosnia's Central Election Commission revoked President Dodik's mandate.

In February, the highest court in the country sentenced Dodik to a year in prison and barred him from all political activity for six years for disregarding decisions by the High Representative, Christian Schmidt, and for his separatist policies that sought to remove Republika Srpska from Bosnia-Herzegovina. He avoided a prison sentence by paying a fine.

Yet despite the court's ruling and the fact that he was, until recently, subject to US sanctions, Milorad Dodik once again came out on top.

Indeed, the US decision to lift sanctions against Dodik also dealt a blow to the credibility of Schmidt and the Office of the High Representative, which no longer seem to have the support of the current US administration.

'Two Dodiks'

Dodik said all those who had sought to remove him from power "got two Dodiks" instead.

"These elections took place under unfavorable circumstances and with the interventionism of external actors," he declared, calling the result a major victory.

"This is a victory for Republika Srpska and a demonstration of its stability," he added.

Karan, the newly elected president, is considered by many to be Dodik's political puppet. He will be in office for one year until the next regular general election in fall 2026, when the three members of the presidency of Bosnia-Herzegovina and the presidents of its two entities will be elected.

President-elect Karan has called for calm, stability and resistance to foreign influence in the lives of Serbs in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

"The Serbian people have now given their final answer by saying 'NO' to any foreigner or usurper who seeks to change their will," he said.

SNSD's 'Bermuda Triangle'

Although the towns of Zvornik, Doboj and Laktasi have long been seen as SNSD strongholds, opposition leaders suspect that opposition candidate Branko Blanusa could have won in all three and claim that voters were "imported" from neighboring Serbia to swing the vote in Karan's favor.

"In the SNSD's Bermuda Triangle of Doboj–Zvornik–Laktasi, the will of the people of Republika Srpska to end SNSD's rule disappeared," said Igor Crnadak, vice president of the opposition Party of Democratic Progress (PDP), accusing the ruling party of massive fraud.

"They stole like mad because the SNSD felt that it was over," said Crnadak.

"Were it not for the manipulations, I could have declared victory tonight," Blanusa said on Sunday, announcing plans to demand a repeat of the vote in the three towns.

The opposition once again failed to secure a win, weakened by the fact that members tend to work against each other rather than against the ruling SNSD and often fail to agree on candidates for posts or elections.

Political immaturity

These responses to the election result within Republika Srpska and the fact that turnout stood at just 35% is a reflection of the country's chronic political immaturity and lack of democratic development.

Voter turnout in Republika Srpska is traditionally low, but the fact that it didn't pass 35% on Sunday reveals a major erosion in SNSD support, with the ruling party securing about 100,000 fewer votes than in previous elections.

This is why Drasko Stanivukovic, the PDP mayor of Banja Luka who has already announced he will run for president of Republika Srpska next year, is portraying the opposition's strong performance in his city as a symbolic triumph, even though it was not enough to secure overall victory.

Few congratulations from abroad

Interestingly, although the leaders of neighboring Serbia indirectly backed Karan, there has as of yet been no official reaction or congratulations from Belgrade.

Nor has there been any comment from neighboring Croatia. Dodik has a good relationship with both the leadership of Croatia and Dragan Covic, president of HDZ BiH, the Bosnian sister party of the Croatian party HDZ.

Thus far, the only head of government to congratulate Karan has been Hungary's Viktor Orban.

"Congratulations to President-elect Sinisa Karan and the SNSD on their election victory in Republika Srpska. We have long worked together for stability in the region. I look forward to continuing this cooperation!", Orban wrote on X.

What does the result mean for Bosnia-Herzegovina?

Dodik's victory, delivered indirectly by Karan, highlights an unavoidable political reality for Bosnia-Herzegovina. Although he is no longer president, Dodik remains the central power broker in Republika Srpska.

As leader of Republika Srpska's largest political party, which also holds influence at state level, Dodik's partners in the Bosniak-Croat entity within Bosnia-Herzegovina will now once again have to negotiate with him, especially after this "confirmation" at the ballot box.

"The president of Republika Srpska is an indispensable actor in political negotiations," said Sarajevo-based professor Vlado Adamovic. "This means that the president of Republika Srpska — regardless of who holds the office — will support the policy of SNSD, whose president is Dodik."

At this point, the key question is whether Dodik will be able to use his renewed leverage to "erase" the political damage caused by the court's verdict against him and whether next year's general election will bring his complete downfall or an absolute victory.

There is unlikely to be a middle ground.

Edited by: Aingeal Flanagan